Country Forecast Philippines Updater

  • ID: 2114066
  • July 2015
  • Region: Philippines
  • 17 Pages
  • The Economist Intelligence Unit

The Economist Intelligence Unit expects the president, Benigno Aquino, to complete his term and stand down in 2016 (he is constitutionally barred from seeking a second term). However, his public approval ratings have plunged owing to his role in a botched police operation in Mindanao in January 2015. A police inquiry found that Mr Aquino and other top-ranking officials had violated the chain of command by failing to notify the military ahead of the raid.

Mr Aquino is likely to have difficulty building a broad political consensus for some of the remaining items on his policy agenda, as attention shifts towards preparations for the mid-2016 elections. He also faces greater scrutiny, after a key budgetary programme was deemed unconstitutional by the Supreme Court in 2014. The court ruling was a heavy political blow, and could weaken Mr Aquino's ability to push proposed reforms to improve governance and boost economic growth through Congress.

Waning political support following the Mindanao clash means that Congress failed to pass the Bangsamoro Basic Law, which sets out the entire legal framework for the new autonomous Muslim region in Mindanao, by its target of mid-June. We do not expect the proposed law to be passed until late 2015 at the earliest.

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Country Forecast Philippines Updater

Country forecast overview: Highlights

Country forecast overview: Key indicators

Country forecast overview: Business environment rankings

Country forecast overview: The Philippines' business environment at a glanc
Policy towards private enterprise and competition
Policy towards foreign investment
Foreign trade and exchange controls
The labour market

Fact sheet

Outlook for 2015-19: Political stability

Outlook for 2015-19: Election watch

Outlook for 2015-19: International relations

Outlook for 2015-19: Policy trends

Outlook for 2015-19: Fiscal policy

Outlook for 2015-19: Monetary policy

Outlook for 2015-19: Economic growth

Outlook for 2015-19: Inflation

Outlook for 2015-19: Exchange rates

Outlook for 2015-19: External sector

Data summary: Global outlook

Data summary: Gross domestic product, current market prices

Data summary: Gross domestic product, at constant prices

Data summary: Gross domestic product by sector of origin

Data summary: Growth and productivity

Data summary: Economic structure, income and market size

Data summary: Fiscal indicators

Data summary: Monetary indicators

Data summary: Employment, wages and prices

Data summary: Current account and terms of trade

Data summary: Foreign direct investment

Data summary: External debt

Data sources and definitions
Global data
Domestic data

Note: Product cover images may vary from those shown
Note: Product cover images may vary from those shown


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