Country Forecast Philippines Updater

  • ID: 2114066
  • April 2016
  • Region: Philippines
  • 17 Pages
  • The Economist Intelligence Unit
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The president, Benigno Aquino, is the only president in the Philippines' modern democratic history to retain his popularity even in his final year in office. Nevertheless, his failure to garner political support for setting up a new autonomous region in Mindanao means that the next administration will be faced with continued instability in the southern region.

Political uncertainty surrounding the May 2016 elections and the government transition thereafter is rising. The presidential race will be closely fought by four candidates: an independent senator, Grace Poe; the vice-president, Jejomar Binay; the Liberal Party standard-bearer, Manuel Roxas; and the controversial mayor of Davao City, Rodrigo Duterte. Mr Roxas and Ms Poe are most likely to continue the policy agenda established by the Aquino administration.

The Economist Intelligence Unit believes that Grace Poe, the front-runner for most of 2015, is likely to win the presidential election as the Supreme Court has ruled in her favour of her eligibility case. However, the case has seen her lead over Mr Duterte and Mr Binay narrow, making it a close race. Mr Binay has also lost ground owing to corruption cases against him piling up. Mr Duterte, who boasts an extremely populist platform, has benefitted from this. Should Mr Duterte seize the presidency, however, there is also a risk of reversion in authoritarian governance.

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Country Forecast Philippines Updater

Country forecast overview: Highlights

Country forecast overview: Key indicators

Country forecast overview: Business environment rankings

Country forecast overview: The Philippines' business environment at a glanc
Policy towards private enterprise and competition
Policy towards foreign investment
Foreign trade and exchange controls
The labour market

Fact sheet

Outlook for 2016-20: Political stability

Outlook for 2016-20: Election watch

Outlook for 2016-20: International relations

Outlook for 2016-20: Policy trends

Outlook for 2016-20: Fiscal policy

Outlook for 2016-20: Monetary policy

Outlook for 2016-20: Economic growth

Outlook for 2016-20: Inflation

Outlook for 2016-20: Exchange rates

Outlook for 2016-20: External sector

Data summary: Global outlook

Data summary: Gross domestic product, current market prices

Data summary: Gross domestic product, at constant prices

Data summary: Gross domestic product by sector of origin

Data summary: Growth and productivity

Data summary: Economic structure, income and market size

Data summary: Fiscal indicators

Data summary: Monetary indicators

Data summary: Employment, wages and prices

Data summary: Current account and terms of trade

Data summary: Foreign direct investment

Data summary: External debt

Data sources and definitions
Global data
Domestic data

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