Country Forecast Hong Kong Updater
The Economist Intelligence Unit, April 2013, Pages: 19
Leung Chun-ying was chosen as Hong Kong's chief executive in 2012 despite opposition from many members of the territory's bureaucratic and business elites. Mr Leung has pledged to tackle growing social inequality and to provide more low-cost housing, but his government will struggle to meet popular expectations. The pro-democracy camp will continue to criticise the chief executive on several fronts. Budget surpluses will be posted in 2013-17, with inflows from land sales boosting government revenue. Despite weak growth in OECD markets, the Economist Intelligence Unit forecasts that Hong Kong's economic growth will reach 3.1% in 2013. Average annual economic growth will edge up to 3.3% in 2014-17, with stronger external demand offsetting problems in the local housing market later in the forecast period. Inflation will be fairly rapid in the next five years, but the Hong Kong dollar's peg to the US dollar will be kept in place. The current account will move into deficit in 2017, largely owing to an increasing merchandise trade deficit.
In March senior Chinese government officials clarified that the mainland authorities intend to exercise control over the eligibility of candidates for Hong Kong's 2017 chief executive election. By clarifying that full and free democratic elections are not an option, they have removed an incentive for democrats in Hong Kong to co-operate with the electoral-reform process.
The government has taken a hands-off approach to a strike by hundreds of dock workers that threatens to damage the local port's reputation for efficiency.
Country Forecast Hong Kong Updater
Hong Kong at a glance: 2013-17
OVERVIEW
Key changes from last month
Political outlook
Economic policy outlook
Economic forecast
Country forecast overview: Highlights
Country forecast overview: Key indicators
Country forecast overview: Business environment rankings
Country forecast overview: Hong Kong's business environment at a glance
Policy towards private enterprise and competition
Policy towards foreign investment
Foreign trade and exchange controls
Taxes
Financing
Labour market
Infrastructure
Fact sheet
Outlook for 2013-17: Political stability
Outlook for 2013-17: Election watch
Outlook for 2013-17: International relations
Outlook for 2013-17: Policy trends
Outlook for 2013-17: Fiscal policy
Outlook for 2013-17: Monetary policy
Outlook for 2013-17: Economic growth
Outlook for 2013-17: Inflation
Outlook for 2013-17: Exchange rates
Outlook for 2013-17: External sector
Data summary: Global outlook
Data summary: Gross domestic product, current market prices
Data summary: Gross domestic product, at constant prices
Data summary: Gross domestic product by sector of origin
Data summary: Growth and productivity
Data summary: Economic structure, income and market size
Data summary: Fiscal indicators
Data summary: Monetary indicators
Data summary: Employment, wages and prices
Data summary: Current account and terms of trade
Data summary: Foreign direct investment
Data summary: External debt
Data sources and definitions
Global data
Domestic data
Abbreviations
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