Housing Associations Market Report - UK 2012-2016 Analysis
AMA Research, March 2012, Pages: 96
AMA Research are pleased to announce the publication of the eighth edition of the report ‘Housing Associations Market Report – UK 2012 – 2016 Analysis’. The report incorporates original input and primary research, and represents an up-to-date and perceptive review of the market and its development.
This unique report answers the need for both a quantitative and qualitative analysis of the Housing Associations market focusing on market size and trends, housing mix, buying and specification and future prospects, the report is comprehensive, informative and will facilitate operational and strategic decision-making processes.
The overall Housing Association market is estimated at almost 3 million dwellings in 2011. The market has grown through a combination of LSVTs and new build, also the Decent Homes programme has stimulated improvement of the existing homes, though new build in the sector will now be affected by the cutbacks in Government spending.
Key issues include:
Review of the UK Social Housing Market – Local Authority and Housing Association sectors – size, structure, growth, political issues, future trends.
Identification of major Housing Associations in England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland.
New Build – Review of progress of government programmes including NAHP/AHP –prospects for 2012-2016 construction activity.
RMI – expenditure levels, trends and forecasts, impact of £2.1 billion Decent Homes programme.
Housing Association specification/purchasing processes – Identification of key roles, new build/RMI differences, growth of buying consortia.
Future prospects –changing roles of RSLs and local authorities, stock transfer, public/private funding, new build programmes.
Areas of particular interest include:
- Market activity levels with forecasts to 2016, including stock, new build and refurbishment.
- Review of Affordable Homes Programme – 2012-2015 – budgets, build levels, key HAs with development grants.
- Top 30 HAs with development pipelines/volume estimates.
- Analysis of the housing mix in housing associations – social rental, shared ownership, care homes, student accommodation.
- Review of key market influences – Green Deal etc.
Key areas covered in the report :
THE HOUSING ASSOCIATIONS MARKET
- Review of social housing structure. Market size in stock terms from 2004 with forecasts through to 2016. Overview of total UK housing stock/share by sector. Mix between LAs and Has – changing trends.
- Market size - Social Housing new build starts and completions - forecast through to 2016.
- Analysis of Repair Maintenance and Improvement on Housing Association properties – Total RMI spend. Decent Homes Programme - £2.1 billion and forecasts up to 2016.
- Review of key market influences – economic factors, government policies, housing affordability, Large Scale Voluntary Transfers, Right to Buy, Impact of Green Deal etc.
- Key regulatory and funding organisations and their role (Housing and Communities Agency, National Housing Federation etc). Planning issues.
- Future prospects for the market.
HOUSING ASSOCIATIONS
- Review of major Housing Associations – dwelling stock, key characteristics, regional strengths, market positioning etc in England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland.
- Market shares of major Housing Associations in each of England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland.
- How the Housing Associations are developing their business models, regional breakdown within shared ownership, key care home providers amongst the Housing Associations, Housing Associations providing purpose built student accommodation etc.
SOCIAL HOUSING DEVELOPMENT PLANS
- Overview of £6.8 billion HCA funding in 2011-2015.
- Review of key government affordable housing programmes – new AHP (Affordable Homes Programme) - investment levels of £4.6 billion 2012-2015. Split by year by value and volume.
- New Build programmes – targets, grants awarded to key HAs – key players in the development market – Top 30 HAs with development pipelines/volume estimates.
- Identification of LSVTs occurring in the last 5 years - volumes.
- Private financing – sources of private finance, major lenders, areas of significant expenditure. New entrants/schemes. Leading Has with recent bond issues.
SPECIFICATION AND BUYING PROCESS
- Specification process – key influencers on the process.
- Growth of buying consortia – 2011 alliance between Procurement for Housing, Fusion 21 and Northern Homes Consortium.
- Influences of Government initiatives on buying and specification – partnering arrangements, framework agreements, procurement routes and issues.
- Key contractors – Future trends and changes.
1. INTRODUCTION
2. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AND FUTURE PROSPECTS
3. SOCIAL HOUSING IN THE UK
3.1 SOCIAL HOUSING MARKET – DEFINITIONS
3.2 HOUSING MARKET STRUCTURE
3.2.1 All Dwellings
3.2.2 Social Housing
3.3 SOCIAL HOUSING REGULATION AND CONTROL
3.3.1 England
3.3.2 Wales
3.3.3 Scotland
3.3.4 Northern Ireland
3.4 FUNDING FOR THE SOCIAL HOUSING MARKET
3.4.1 Public Sector Funding
3.4.2 Private Sector Funding
4. HOUSING ASSOCIATIONS MARKET
4.1 MARKET DEFINITION
4.2 MARKET SIZE AND TRENDS
4.2.1 Future Drivers of Social Housing
4.3 MARKET MIX
4.4 NEW BUILD OF RP PROPERTIES
4.4.1 Size of Housing Association Completions
4.4.2 Social Housing Development Pipeline
4.5 PUBLIC HOUSING RMI
4.5.1 Social Housing RMI Output
4.5.2 Impact of the ‘Green Deal’ on Social Housing RMI
4.6 KEY MARKET INFLUENCES
4.6.1 Economic, Demographic and Social Trends
4.6.2 Government Housing Strategy
4.6.3 Housing Affordability
4.6.4 Planning
4.6.5 Large Scale Voluntary Transfers (LSVTs)
4.6.6 Right to Buy
4.7 BUYING AND SPECIFICATION
4.7.1 Overview
4.7.2 Procurement Process
4.7.3 Procurement Routes
4.7.4 Future of Housing Association Procurement
4.7.5 Key Contractors in the Social Housing Sector
5. HOUSING ASSOCIATION ACTIVITIES
5.1 HOUSING MIX
5.2 SOCIAL RENTED HOUSING – GENERAL NEEDS HOUSING
5.2.1 Size of Stock
5.2.2 Geographical Location of RP Stock
5.2.3 Social Housing Rents
5.2.4 Decent Homes
5.3 SHARED OWNERSHIP
5.4 CARE HOMES
5.5 STUDENT ACCOMMODATION
6. KEY HOUSING ASSOCIATIONS
6.1 MARKET STRUCTURE
6.2 ENGLAND – KEY HOUSING ASSOCIATIONS
6.2.1 Sanctuary Group
6.2.2 London & Quadrant
6.2.3 Circle
6.2.4 Guinness Partnership
6.2.5 Places for People
6.3 SCOTLAND – KEY HOUSING ASSOCIATIONS
6.4 WALES – KEY HOUSING ASSOCIATIONS
6.5 NORTHERN IRELAND – KEY HOUSING ASSOCIATIONS
List of Tables and Charts
CHART 1: UK HOUSING ASSOCIATION STOCK 2006-2016 (‘000S)
TABLE 2: ENGLAND DWELLING STOCK BY TENURE (‘000S) 2007-2011
CHART 3: HOUSING STOCK BY COUNTRY AND TENURE 2010-11 (%)
CHART 4: UK SOCIAL HOUSING COMPLETIONS 1990-2010
CHART 5: SOCIAL HOUSING COMPLETIONS 2011 BY COUNTRY
TABLE 6: UK SOCIAL HOUSING - % DWELLING STOCK 2001-2011 BY TENURE – MIX BETWEEN RP AND LA
CHART 7: HCA BUDGET BY PROGRAMME 2011 - 2015 (%)
TABLE 8: SUMMARY OF HCA FUNDING ALLOCATIONS & ACTIVITY: ENGLAND 2011-2015 – AFFORDABLE HOUSING PROGRAMME / DECENT HOMES
TABLE 9: ENGLAND - AFFORDABLE HOMES PROGRAMME 2011-2015 - TOTAL FUNDING AND NO. OF UNITS BY HCA OPERATING REGION (£M/DWELLINGS)
TABLE 10: ENGLAND - AFFORDABLE HOMES PROGRAMME 2011-15: GRANTS AWARDED BY HOUSING ASSOCIATION/NO. HOMES PLANNED/NO. HOMES BROUGHT FORWARD
TABLE 11: ENGLAND - DECENT HOMES PROGRAMME - TOTAL NO. HOMES MADE DECENT 2011-15
CHART 12: WALES – SOCIAL HOUSING GRANT FUNDING (£M) 2005-2012
TABLE 13: LEADING HOUSING ASSOCIATION BOND ISSUES – 2010-12 (£M)
TABLE 14: UK HOUSING ASSOCIATION STOCK 2006-2016 (‘000S)
CHART 15: DISTRIBUTION OF HOUSING ASSOCIATIONS IN THE UK BY NUMBER OF DWELLINGS 2011 (%)
CHART 16: DISTRIBUTION OF HOUSING ASSOCIATIONS AND STOCK HOLDINGS BY SIZE OF ASSOCIATION 2011
CHART 17: DISTRIBUTION OF HOUSING ASSOCIATIONS BY TYPE OF ORGANISATION – ENGLAND 2011 (%)
TABLE 18: HA STOCK BY TYPE OF DWELLING AND TYPE OF ASSOCIATION – ENGLAND 2007-2010*
CHART 19: RP NEW HOUSING STARTS AND COMPLETIONS UK 2006 TO 2016 – BY VOLUME OF DWELLINGS
TABLE 20: HOUSING ASSOCIATION COMPLETIONS BY SIZE OF DWELLING 2008-09 AND 2010-11: ENGLAND (%)
TABLE 21: AHP - TOTAL COMPLETIONS BY YEAR: 2011-2015
TABLE 22: AFFORDABLE HOMES DEVELOPMENT PIPELINE: TOP 30 HOUSING ASSOCIATIONS BY NO. UNITS DEVELOPED 2011-2015
TABLE 23: EXPENDITURE ON HOUSING ASSOCIATION PROPERTIES - MAJOR REPAIRS, PLANNED MAINTENANCE, SERVICE COSTS: 2008-10 (£M)
CHART 24: ESTIMATED TOTAL EXPENDITURE ON HOUSING ASSOCIATION RMI: 2010 -2015
TABLE 25: HOUSEHOLD MIX ESTIMATES (MULTI / SINGLE PERSON) – ENGLAND 2005 - 2033 (‘000S)
TABLE 26: AFFORDABILITY FACTORS UK – AVERAGE PRICE, MORTGAGE ADVANCE AND INCOME (£) 2005-2010
TABLE 27: LARGE SCALE VOLUNTARY TRANSFERS IN THE UK 1988-89 -2010/11 (NO. OF UNITS BY COUNTRY)
TABLE 28: ‘RIGHT TO BUY’ AND ‘RIGHT TO ACQUIRE’ SALES, ENGLAND
TABLE 29: LEADING CONTRACTORS IN THE SOCIAL HOUSING SECTOR 2011-12 (TURNOVER & KEY CLIENTS)
CHART 30: HA STOCK IN ENGLAND BY TYPE 2011 (%)
TABLE 31: ENGLAND –GENERAL NEEDS SOCIAL HOUSING STOCK BY SIZE OF DWELLING 2011 (%)
TABLE 32: ENGLAND – REGIONAL DISTRIBUTION OF GENERAL NEEDS SOCIAL HOUSING STOCK 2011 – LARGE RPS (%)*
TABLE 33: ENGLAND – GENERAL NEEDS HOUSING RENTS PER REGION 2011 (£/WK)
TABLE 34: HOUSING ASSOCIATION PROPERTIES FAILING TO MEET THE DECENT HOMES STANDARD 2009 AND 2011 (‘000S)
TABLE 35: ESTIMATED EXPENDITURE ON DECENT HOMES WITHIN RP SECTOR (£ BILLION) 2005 - 2015
TABLE 36: ENGLAND – REGIONAL DISTRIBUTION OF HA SHARED OWNERSHIP HOUSING STOCK 2011 (%)
CHART 37: SHARED OWNERSHIP UNITS UNSOLD FOR MORE THAN 6 MONTHS
TABLE 38: LONG-TERM CARE MARKET BY OWNERSHIP TYPE – NUMBER OF CARE HOMES/BED-SPACES 2011*
CHART 39: AVERAGE SIZE OF CARE HOMES IN ENGLAND 2010-11
TABLE 40: UK CARE HOME SUPPLIERS: MARKET SHARE BY NO. HOMES & BED SPACES
CHART 41: TYPES OF STUDENT ACCOMMODATION IN THE UK – APPROXIMATE SHARE BY TYPE 2011
TABLE 42: MARKET SHARES OF LEADING COMMERCIAL OPERATORS OF STUDENT ACCOMMODATION IN THE UK 2011
TABLE 43: TOP 30 HA GROUPS IN ENGLAND BY TOTAL STOCK OWNED (2011) UNITS MANAGED / MARKET SHARE
CHART 44: SANCTUARY HOUSING GROUP HOUSING MIX 2011
CHART 45: LONDON & QUADRANT HOUSING GROUP HOUSING MIX 2011
CHART 46: CIRCLE HOUSING GROUP HOUSING MIX 2011
CHART 47: GUINNESS PARTNERSHIP HOUSING MIX 2011
CHART 48: PLACES FOR PEOPLE HOUSING MIX 2011
TABLE 49: LEADING HOUSING ASSOCIATIONS IN SCOTLAND (2,000+ DWELLINGS) 2011 – UNITS MANAGED/MARKET SHARE
TABLE 50: MAJOR HOUSING ASSOCIATIONS IN WALES – 2011 UNITS MANAGED / MARKET SHARES
TABLE 51: MAJOR HOUSING ASSOCIATIONS IN NORTHERN IRELAND 2011 UNITS MANAGED/MARKET SHARES
In 2011, total UK housing association stock was estimated to total 2,985,000 units - a growth of 4% on 2010. The sector has grown dramatically following the large-scale voluntary transfer (LSVT) of council homes in the 1990s. Housing associations in England now own some 2.5m homes - around 60% of all social and 11% of total housing stock. The housing association sector is diverse, with around 1,900 associations varying in size from under 10 homes to more than 50,000. However, over 95% of homes are managed by the Top 400 housing associations with at least 1,000 social homes each. The top 30 associations manage around 39% of all homes - over the past couple of years, the top 30 groups have gained 55,575 units, reflecting continued consolidation in the market.
A major decline in house-building has increased demand for social housing; however, sweeping changes to housing and planning policy by the Coalition government has left housing associations facing the biggest change in the sector since the 1980s. The social housing budget is being halved between 2011-12 and 2014-15 to around £4.6bn (down from £8.4bn over the previous spending review) and this is expected to be offset by changes to the Affordable Rent Model, which will allow RPs to charge new tenants up to 80% of the local market rate (compared to 50% currently).
The Government’s social house-building target is for 170,000 new affordable homes by 2015 through the Affordable Homes Programme and existing commitments from the previous National Affordable Housing Programme (NAHP). In July 2011, the HCA announced programme allocations of around £1.8bn of funding through the AHP. Around 146 housing associations alongside local authorities, house builders and other providers are set to deliver 80,000 new affordable homes under the programme.
However, the government believes housing associations should deliver more for less money and the affordable homes programme will more than halve the rate of grant paid for each new unit of housing developed, although the HCA is paying 75% of grants in advance for any schemes that are being brought forward into the current financial year.
In the 2010 Spending Review, the government also announced an investment of £2.1bn of capital funding to help towards continuing the Decent Homes programme, of which £0.5bn is being allocated to housing associations and the creation of the £200m FirstBuy scheme, which will provide an equity loan of 20% of the value of new build properties and which is hoped will deliver around 10,500 homes.
The key issue for housing associations, going forward, is the availability of grant funding beyond 2015. At the moment, it is not clear what will happen to government funding for affordable housing development after 2015, but many in the sector believe that it may lead to providers becoming dependent on alternative and private sources of funding. Housing associations now face unprecedented challenges and cannot rely on the level and type of support they have had in previous years. Grant funding for the building of social homes has been scrapped and in its place affordable rents at 80% of market levels has been introduced, exposing associations to more commercial risk. In addition, a declining housing market, constrained lending conditions and an overhaul of the planning and benefits systems will only further add to the challenges ahead.
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