Argentina Oil And Gas Report Q2 2012
Business Monitor International, April 2012, Pages: 77
BMI View: Argentina’s energy sector needs all the help it can get, so the resource upgrade at Vaca Muerta is highly encouraging. However, the fiscal regime needs work if Argentina is to secure adequate long-term investment and harness the country’s apparent potential. Otherwise, import volumes of both oil and gas will rise steadily and Argentina will miss out on an opportunity to achieve a high degree of selfsufficiency.
The main trends and developments we highlight in the Argentinean Oil and Gas sector are:
- An audit carried out by US consultant Ryder Scott to assess potential of the Vaca Muerta formation in Argentina's Neuquén Province has led to a substantial increase in estimated reserves. The formation is now considered to hold prospective resources of 21.2bn barrels of oil equivalent (boe), contingent resources of 1.5bn boe and booked proven, probable and possible (3P) reserves of 116mn boe net to Repsol YPF – the company that commissioned the audit. This is a considerable increase on a November 2011 contingent resources estimate of 927mn boe.
- Repsol-YPF estimates it would take US$42bn of combined investment from all partners, the drilling of 3,000 producing wells and the addition of 100 new rigs to develop Vaca Muerta's estimated 1.5bn boe of contingent resources. The company said it would take US$25bn per year to double the country's current oil and gas production
- Until there is a firm commitment to shale project development, conventional oil volumes will continue to come under pressure and the production outlook will remain uncertain. Our current estimates assume oil output falling in 2012, but recovering in 2013/14. By 2016, we expect Argentina to be pumping an average 730,000 barrels per day (b/d), requiring net imports of around 3,000b/d should demand reach 733,000b/d.
- Natural gas consumption had been rising at an annual rate of 5% before the global economic crisis, but demand stalled during the economic downturn. We now see demand picking up along with economic recovery, with consumption of an estimated 44.2bn cubic metres (bcm) in 2011 rising to 53.7bcm by 2016, requiring imports of 13.7bcm.
- Oil export revenues are expected to turn around from an assumed net positive of US$3.4bn in 2011 to a net negative of US$102mn in 2016, subject to the extraction of shale volumes. Net gas import costs are set to rise to 13.7bcm in 2016, costing US$6.4bn. Combined oil and gas imports costs in 2016 could therefore be US$6.5bn – with the potential to double by 2021 without major progress in exploiting shale resources.
At the time of writing we assume an OPEC basket oil price for 2012 of US$99.38/bbl, falling to US$97.23/bbl in 2013. Global GDP in 2012 is forecast at 3.2%, up from an assumed 3.1% in 2011, reflecting a slowing growth in China and uncertainty with regard to the eurozone debt situation. For 2013, growth is estimated at 3.7%.
Business Monitor International's Argentina Oil and Gas Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, oil and gas associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Argentina's oil and gas industry.
BMI Industry View
SWOT Analysis
Argentina Oil and Gas SWOT
Global Energy Market Outlook
Table: Libya Production Update: Main Fields (As Of Jan 9)
Table: Global Oil Consumption, 2009-2016 (000b/d)
Table: Global Oil Production, 2009-2016 (000b/d)
Regional Energy Market Outlook
Argentina Energy Market Overview
Table: Argentina – Upstream Projects Database
Industry Forecast Scenario
Oil And Gas Reserves
Table: Argentina Oil & Gas – Historical Data And Forecasts, 2009-2016
Table: Argentina Oil & Gas – Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021
Oil Supply And Demand
Gas Supply And Demand
LNG
Refining And Oil Products Trade
Revenues/Import Costs
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
Oil Refineries
Table: Refineries In Argentina
Service Stations
Oil Terminals/ Ports
Oil Pipelines
LNG Terminals
Gas Storage Facilities
Gas Pipelines
Regional and Country Risk/Reward Ratings
Table: Latin America Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings
Table: Latin America Downstream Risk/Reward Ratings
Competitive Landscape
Executive Summary
Table: Key Players – Argentine Oil And Gas Sector
Overview/State Role
Licensing And Regulation
Government Policy
Licensing Rounds
International Energy Relations
Table: Key Upstream Players
Table: Key Downstream Players
Company Monitor
Repsol YPF
Petrobras Energía
Chevron Argentina
Total Austral
ExxonMobil
Shell Compañía Argentina de Petróleo
BG Group
Apache Energía
Sinopec/Occidental – Summary
Bridas/PAE – Summary
Otto Energy – Summary
Others – Summary
Latin America – Regional Appendix
Table: Oil Consumption (000b/d), 2009-2016
Table: Long-term Oil Consumption (000b/d), 2014-2021
Table: Oil Production (000b/d), 2009-2016
Table: Long-term Oil Production (000b/d), 2014-2021
Table: Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d), 2009-2016
Table: Gas Consumption (bcm), 2009-2016
Table: Long-Term Gas Consumption (bcm) 2014-2021
Table: Gas Production (bcm), 2009-2016
Table: Long-Term Gas Production (bcm), 2014-2021
Table: LNG Exports (bcm), 2009-2016
Methodology And Risks To Forecasts
Glossary Of Terms
Table: Glossary Of Terms
Oil And Gas Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
Ratings Overview
Table: BMI’s Oil & Gas Business Environment Ratings – Structure
Indicators
Table: BMI’s Oil & Gas Upstream Ratings – Methodology
Table: BMI’s Oil & Gas Business Environment Downstream Ratings – Methodology
BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Energy Industry
Cross checks
Sources
- Repsol YPF
- Petrobras Energía
- Chevron Argentina
- Total Austral
- ExxonMobil
- Shell Compañía Argentina de Petróleo
- BG Group
- Apache Energía
- Sinopec/Occidental
- Bridas/PAE
- Otto Energy
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