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Country Risk Service Bahrain Product Image

Country Risk Service Bahrain

  • ID: 2118732
  • January 2015
  • Region: Bahrain
  • 25 Pages
  • The Economist Intelligence Unit

Bahrain's sovereign risk score is constrained by ongoing political tensions, a lower level of financial flexibility than other oil-exporting sovereigns and an expansionary fiscal policy. Bahrain is acutely sensitive to shifts in oil prices and has less room for manoeuvre to expand production compared with other Gulf states. Given the sharp downward turn in oil prices Bahrain is facing a damaging fiscal squeeze in 2015-16.

Bahrain will maintain its currency peg to the US dollar, despite lower oil income which will cause the current account to swing into deficit and foreign reserves to decline. Financial support from Bahrain's neighbours will help the Central Bank's ability to maintain the peg.

Bahrain's role as a banking hub has taken a major reputational hit as a result of ongoing political unrest, and the authorities may struggle to convince international banks that the country has returned to stability. Banks are highly reliant on foreign financing, the cost of which will fluctuate in line with perceptions of political unrest. They are also sensitive to oil price fluctuations.

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Country Risk Service Bahrain

Risk assessment
Sovereign risk
Currency risk
Banking sector risk
Political risk
Economic structure risk

Definitions
Sovereign risk
Currency risk
Banking sector risk
Political risk
Economic structure risk
Overall country risk

Sovereign risk
Current assessment
Positive factors
Negative factors
Rating outlook

Currency risk
Current assessment
Positive factors
Negative factors
Rating outlook
Foreign-exchange regime

Banking sector risk
Current assessment
Positive factors
Negative factors
Rating outlook

Generic risks
Political risk assessment
Economic structure risk assessment

Country risk
Overall country risk

Central scenario for 2015-19: Political stability

Central scenario for 2015-19: Election watch

Central scenario for 2015-19: International relations

Central scenario for 2015-19: Policy trends

Central scenario for 2015-19: Fiscal policy

Central scenario for 2015-19: Monetary policy

Central scenario for 2015-19: Economic growth

Central scenario for 2015-19: Inflation

Central scenario for 2015-19: Exchange rates

Central scenario for 2015-19: External sector

Central scenario for 2015-19: External financing requirement

Central scenario for 2015-19: External debt

Key risk indicators

Ratings summary

Quarterly indicators

International assumptions summary

Economic structure

Public finances

Exchange rates, interest rates and prices

Financial sector

Current account

International liquidity

Foreign payment and liquidity indicators

External trade

External financing requirement

External debt stock

External debt service

Note: Product cover images may vary from those shown
Note: Product cover images may vary from those shown

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