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Country Risk Service Bahrain

  • ID: 2118732
  • January 2016
  • Region: Bahrain
  • 25 Pages
  • The Economist Intelligence Unit
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Bahrain's sovereign risk score is constrained by political tensions and a wide fiscal deficit. The sovereign retains access to the international debt markets and will seek to boost non-oil revenue and reduce spending. However, Bahrain remains very sensitive to shifts in oil prices and only has a relatively modest sovereign wealth fund to fall back on

The currency risk rating is undermined by the country's widening current-account deficit and declining foreign-currency reserves. Bahrain will maintain its currency peg to the US dollar despite lower oil income. If needed, financial support from Bahrain's neighbours would help the Central Bank of Bahrain to maintain the peg.

Bahrain's role as a banking hub has taken a reputational hit as a result of ongoing political unrest. Banks are highly reliant on foreign financing, the cost of which will fluctuate in line with perceptions of political unrest. They are also sensitive to oil-price fluctuations.

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Country Risk Service Bahrain

Risk assessment
Sovereign risk
Currency risk
Banking sector risk
Political risk
Economic structure risk

Definitions
Sovereign risk
Currency risk
Banking sector risk
Political risk
Economic structure risk
Overall country risk

Sovereign risk
Current assessment
Positive factors
Negative factors
Rating outlook

Currency risk
Current assessment
Positive factors
Negative factors
Rating outlook
Foreign-exchange regime

Banking sector risk
Current assessment
Positive factors
Negative factors
Rating outlook

Generic risks
Political risk assessment
Economic structure risk assessment

Country risk
Overall country risk

Central scenario for 2016-20: Political stability

Central scenario for 2016-20: Election watch

Central scenario for 2016-20: International relations

Central scenario for 2016-20: Policy trends

Central scenario for 2016-20: Fiscal policy

Central scenario for 2016-20: Monetary policy

Central scenario for 2016-20: Economic growth

Central scenario for 2016-20: Inflation

Central scenario for 2016-20: Exchange rates

Central scenario for 2016-20: External sector

Central scenario for 2016-20: External financing requirement

Central scenario for 2016-20: External debt

Key risk indicators

Ratings summary

Quarterly indicators

International assumptions summary

Economic structure

Public finances

Exchange rates, interest rates and prices

Financial sector

Current account

International liquidity

Foreign payment and liquidity indicators

External trade

External financing requirement

External debt stock

External debt service

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