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Country Risk Service Bahrain Product Image

Country Risk Service Bahrain

  • Published: January 2014
  • Region: Bahrain
  • 26 Pages
  • The Economist Intelligence Unit

Bahrain's sovereign risk score is constrained by ongoing political tensions, less financial flexibility than other oil-exporting sovereigns and an expansionary fiscal policy. Bahrain is acutely sensitive to shifts in oil prices and has less room for manoeuvre to expand production compared with other Gulf states.

Bahrain will maintain its currency peg to the US dollar. The Central Bank of Bahrain's ability to support the peg will be dependent on oil income, which is set to remain high in 2014-15, as well as on financial support from its neighbours.

Bahrain's role as a banking hub has taken a major reputational hit as a result of ongoing political unrest, and the authorities may struggle to convince international banks that the country has returned to stability. Banks are highly reliant on foreign financing, the cost of which will fluctuate in line with perceptions of political unrest.

Country Risk Service Bahrain

Risk assessment
Sovereign risk
Currency risk
Banking sector risk
Political risk
Economic structure risk

Definitions
Sovereign risk
Currency risk
Banking sector risk
Political risk
Economic structure risk
Overall country risk

Sovereign risk
Current assessment
Positive Factors
Negative factors
Rating outlook

Currency risk
Current assessment
Positive factors
Negative factors
Rating outlook
Foreign-exchange regime

Banking sector risk
Current assessment
Positive Factors
Negative factors
Rating outlook

Generic risks
Political risk assessment
Economic structure risk assessment

Country risk
Overall country risk

Central scenario for 2014-18: Political stability

Central scenario for 2014-18: Election watch

Central scenario for 2014-18: International relations

Central scenario for 2014-18: Policy trends

Central scenario for 2014-18: Fiscal policy

Central scenario for 2014-18: Monetary policy

Central scenario for 2014-18: Economic growth

Central scenario for 2014-18: Inflation

Central scenario for 2014-18: Exchange rates

Central scenario for 2014-18: External sector

Central scenario for 2014-18: External financing requirement

Central scenario for 2014-18: External debt

Key risk indicators

Ratings summary

Quarterly indicators

International assumptions summary

Economic structure

Public finances

Exchange rates, interest rates and prices

Financial sector

Current account

International liquidity

Foreign payment and liquidity indicators

External trade

External financing requirement

External debt stock

External debt service

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