Country Risk Service Bahrain
The Economist Intelligence Unit, April 2013, Pages: 23
Bahrain was the Gulf Co-operation Council country most affected by social unrest in 2011, and The Economist Intelligence Unit expects there to be simmering political discontent during the forecast period. The ruling Al Khalifa family will remain in power, but street protests and crackdowns by the security forces will continue. Although there have been signs of a softening in the government's stance of late, hardliners will continue to undermine efforts to extend a hand to the opposition. Some opposition groups will call for the downfall of the monarch. Iran's nuclear programme will be the dominant foreign policy risk. Bahrain hosts the US Navy's Fifth Fleet and could be targeted by Iran in the event of a military conflict over Iran's nuclear programme. Economic policy will focus on shoring up growth, diversifying the economy and restoring confidence in Bahrain. The government will raise public spending, as it boosts subsidies and public-sector pay and pensions. We forecast that economic growth will average 4.2% a year in 2013-17. We expect the current account to record surpluses throughout the forecast period as oil prices stay high and the services sector recovers.
The king has appointed Crown Prince Salman bin Hamad al-Khalifa to the new post of first deputy prime minister. The move could well be a signal that the relatively dovish Sheikh Salman is regaining influence.
We have lowered slightly our forecast for Bahrain's fiscal deficit to 5.4% in 2013-14, owing to a small upward adjustment to our oil price forecast.
Country Risk Service Bahrain
Bahrain at a glance: 2013-17
OVERVIEW
Key changes from last month
Political outlook
Economic policy outlook
Economic forecast
Risk assessment
Sovereign risk
Currency risk
Banking sector risk
Political risk
Economic structure risk
Sovereign risk
Current assessment
Positive factors
Negative factors
Outlook
Currency risk
Current assessment
Positive factors
Negative factors
Outlook
Foreign-exchange regime
Banking sector risk
Current assessment
Positive factors
Negative factors
Outlook
Generic risks
Political risk assessment
Economic structure risk assessment
Country risk
Overall country risk
Rating definitions
Sovereign risk
Currency risk
Banking sector risk
Political risk
Economic structure risk
Overall country risk
Central scenario for 2013-17: Political stability
Central scenario for 2013-17: Election watch
Central scenario for 2013-17: International relations
Central scenario for 2013-17: Policy trends
Central scenario for 2013-17: Fiscal policy
Central scenario for 2013-17: Monetary policy
Central scenario for 2013-17: Economic growth
Central scenario for 2013-17: Inflation
Central scenario for 2013-17: Exchange rates
Central scenario for 2013-17: External sector
Central scenario for 2013-17: External financing requirement
Central scenario for 2013-17: External debt
Key risk indicators
Ratings summary
Quarterly indicators
International assumptions summary
Economic structure
Public finances
Exchange rates, interest rates and prices
Financial sector
Current account
International liquidity
Foreign payment and liquidity indicators
External trade
External financing requirement
External debt stock
External debt service
Customers who bought this item also bought
All rights reserved. © Copyright 2013 Research and Markets WWW4
Terms and Conditions Privacy Policy Publishers Employment Opportunities Site Map Link to us Webmaster Affiliate Network
