Bulgaria Oil and Gas Report Q2 2012
Business Monitor International, April 2012, Pages: 75
BMI View: Infighting between local authorities and key refinery operator Lukoil hardly bodes well for the downstream oil segment, while upstream prospects rest on early and significant success at Black Sea drilling operations. It had been thought that shale gas prospects could stimulate long-term supply, but the proposed ban on fraccing means rapid progress is unlikely. Meanwhile, energy import dependency creeps steadily higher.
The main trends and developments we highlight for Bulgaria’s Oil and Gas sector are:
- The Bulgarian government was in January 2012 considering an outright ban on shale oil and gas exploration through hydraulic fracturing or fraccing due to environmental concerns following widespread protests against the unconventional procedure. It is reviewing a shale gas exploration permit it granted to US-based oil major Chevron, in spite of the country’s speculated 1,000bn cubic metres of shale gas potential.
- Canada's TransAtlantic Petroleum may start gas production from a Bulgarian field in 2012, the economy and energy ministry said in July 2011. The maximum prospective resources in the Koinare field, some 130km north of Sofia, are estimated at over 34bcm and production could start in 2012 at Deventsi, one of the field’s four sections, the ministry said. The annual gas production from Deventsi may reach 1bcm depending on the number of wells and sales contracts.
- Bulgarian gas consumption is rising well ahead of domestic supply. Although gas output may reach 1.2bcm by 2015, net imports by 2016 could reach 2.3bcm. In November 2009, Bulgaria and Azerbaijan signed a memorandum under which Bulgaria plans to import about 1bcm of natural gas from the Central Asian country from 2012/2013.
- Oil demand growth, already modest before the current economic downturn, will make little progress until GDP growth accelerates, which suggests consumption may reach just 106,000 barrels per day (b/d) by 2016. Imports are expected to grow in line with consumption, as exploration efforts by small independent oil companies (IOCs) are likely to deliver increased domestic crude volumes.
- A turnkey project-implementation contract was signed in Sofia during January 2012 for a heavyresidue hydrocracking complex to be built at the Lukoil Neftochim Burgas refinery. Implementation will allow it to increase the output of Euro-5 diesel fuel by 1.2mn tonnes per annum (tpa) and also to end production of high-sulphur fuel oil. Commissioning of the new complex is expected in January 2015. Lukoil was to have invested US$240mn in the plant in 2011, but has been battling with local authorities over its operator licence.
- Bulgaria is set to import an annual average of 95,000-105,000b/d of crude over the next five years, implying costs of around US$3.44bn in 2012, rising to US$3.56bn by 2016. Gas imports of 2.0bcm- 2.3bcm per annum during the forecast period mean total petroleum costs will be US$4.61bn by 2016. At the time of writing we assume an OPEC basket oil price for 2012 of US$99.38/bbl, falling to US$97.23/bbl in 2013. Global GDP in 2012 is forecast at 3.2%, up from an assumed 3.1% in 2011 reflecting a faltering recovery in the US and an uncertain eurozone debt situation. For 2013, growth is estimated at 3.7%.
Business Monitor International's Bulgaria Oil and Gas Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, oil and gas associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Bulgaria's oil and gas industry.
BMI Industry View
SWOT Analysis
Bulgaria Oil and Gas SWOT
Global Energy Market Outlook
Table: Libya Production Update: Main Fields (As Of Jan 9)
Table: Global Oil Consumption, 2009-2016 (000b/d)
Table: Global Oil Production, 2009-2016 (000b/d)
Regional Energy Market Outlook
Bulgaria Energy Market Overview
Industry Forecast Scenario
Table: Bulgaria Oil & Gas – Historical Data And Forecasts, 2009-2016
Table: Bulgaria Oil & Gas – Historical Data & Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021
Oil And Gas Reserves
Oil Supply And Demand
Gas Supply And Demand
LNG
Refining and Oil Products Trade
Revenues/Import Costs
Key Risks To BMI’s Forecast Scenario
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
Oil Refineries
Service Stations
Oil Storage Facilities
Oil Terminals/Ports
Oil Pipelines
LNG Terminals
Gas Storage Facilities
Gas Pipelines
Regional and Country Risk/Reward Ratings
Table: CEE Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings
Table: CEE Downstream Risk/Reward Ratings
Bulgaria Upstream Rating – Overview
Bulgaria Upstream Rating – Rewards
Bulgaria Upstream Rating – Risks
Regional Downstream Risks/Rewards
Bulgaria Downstream Rating – Overview
Competitive Landscape
Executive Summary
Table: Key Players Bulgarian Oil And Gas Sector
Overview/State Role
Licensing And Regulation
Government Policy
Licensing Rounds
International Energy Relations
Table: Key Upstream Players
Table: Key Downstream Players
Company Monitor
Lukoil Neftekhim
Oil & Gas Exploration & Production plc
Petrol
OMV Bulgaria
Shell Bulgaria
EKO Bulgaria
Melrose Resources
Bulgargaz – Summary
TransAtlantic/Direct Petroleum – Summary
JKX Oil & Gas/Aurelian Oil & Gas – Summary
Prista Oil – Summary
Gazprom – Summary
Central And Eastern Europe – Regional Appendix
Table: Oil Consumption, 2009-2016 (000b/d)
Table: Oil Consumption Long- Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (000b/d)
Table: Oil Production, 2009-2016 (000b/d)
Table: Oil Production Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (000b/d)
Table: Refining Capacity, 2009-2016 (000b/d)
Table: Refining Capacity Long Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (000b/d)
Table: Gas Consumption, 2009-2016 (bcm)
Table: Gas Consumption Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (bcm)
Table: Gas Production, 2009-2016 (bcm)
Table: Gas Production Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (bcm)
Table: LNG Gas Exports, 2009-2016 (bcm)
Methodology And Risks To Forecasts
Glossary Of Terms
Oil And Gas Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
Ratings Overview
Table: BMI’s Oil & Gas Business Environment Ratings – Structure
Indicators
Table: BMI’s Oil & Gas Upstream Ratings – Methodology
Table: BMI’s Oil & Gas Business Environment Downstream Ratings – Methodology
BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Energy Industry
Cross checks
Sources
- Lukoil Neftekhim
- Oil & Gas Exploration & Production plc
- Petrol
- OMV Bulgaria
- Shell Bulgaria
- EKO Bulgaria
- Melrose Resources
- Bulgargaz
- TransAtlantic/Direct Petroleum
- JKX Oil & Gas/Aurelian Oil & Gas
- Prista Oil
- Gazprom
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