- Language: English
- 503 Pages
- Published: October 2012
- Region: Global
Canada Agribusiness Report Q2 2012
- Published: April 2012
- Region: Canada
- 68 Pages
- Business Monitor International
BMI View: We forecast steady growth in grains output over the short term in Canada, as we do not believe the recent decision to end the Canadian Wheat Board's monopoly on grains trading will affect planting decisions by farmers. On the contrary, still-elevated global prices are likely to encourage them to boost production. Both the livestock and dairy sectors are still being affected by slow growth in herds and high feed prices, which are expected to prevent producers from taking full advantage of new export market openings. Thus, we forecast poor output growth in both sectors despite high prices and government support.
- Wheat production growth to 2015/16: 17.9% to 27.3mn tonnes. Elevated global prices as well as export demand will encourage increased plantings and drive output growth.
- Cheese consumption growth to 2016: 5.2% to 438,200 tonnes. Consumption growth will largely be driven by government initiatives to increase consumption of healthy foods, which include probiotic yoghurts and dairy products containing healthy fatty acids, as these foods have been linked to decreased incidences of certain health problems, such as osteoporosis.
- Poultry production growth to 2015/16: 9.6% 1.2mn tonnes. The perceived healthier nature of poultry as well as increasing export opportunities will help to support consumption growth. High poultry prices are also expected to stimulate production.
- 2012 real GDP growth: 2.0% year-on-year (y-o-y). Down from 2.4% in 2011; predicted to average 2.4% over 2011-2016.
- Consumer price inflation: 2.0% y-o-y in 2012. Down from 2.8% in 2011; predicted to average 2.3% over 2011-2016.
- BMI universe agribusiness market value: 3.9% y-o-y decline to US$23.6bn in 2011/12; forecast to average US$23.8bn between 2010/11 and 2015/16.
Industry Developments After the Canadian federal government declared an end to the Canadian Wheat Board monopoly in October 2011, there has been a slew of mergers and acquisitions activity within Canada's grain sector. Several global grain handlers including Glencore, Cargill, ADM, and Bunge have been rumoured to be interested in acquiring Canadian-based grain distributors in order to establish a presence in a top grainexporting market. The most recent (and persistent) rumours involve the acquisition of Viterra, the largest Canadian handler in Western Canada, with roughly 45% of total market share in the country's three wheat-producing Western provinces. The winning bid could give the parent company access to up to 50% of the grain market in the coming years as Viterra's market share is expected to rise in the wake of the recent deregulation of the sector.
We believe production growth in the Canadian meat industry will be insufficient to take full advantage of new export opportunities opening up to the country. South Korea recently ended a nine-year ban on Canadian beef, and China has lowered its meat import restrictions. Japan could also soon expand Canadian beef access, as the high-paying market currently only accepts Canadian beef from cattle younger than 21 months (a result of 2003 restrictions related to bovine spongiform encephalopathy). Smaller markets such as Vietnam and the United Arab Emirates also recently opened to Canadian cattle. In spite of this, we forecast Canadian beef production to fall 1.1% y-o-y to 1.2mn tonnes in 2011/12 and to decline further in the coming years, making it difficult for the country to take full advantage of such opportunities.
Because Canada limits imports of dairy products/ingredients on the domestic market to protect the local industry, dairy producers have at times faced higher input costs, which has made them uncompetitive on export markets. Therefore, the government created the Import for Re-export Program in 2003, which has grown in popularity, especially in context of volatility in food prices. In fact, the program enabled local producers to import certain dairy products/ingredients for use in manufacturing of goods destined for export (eg, cheese, butter, pastries). This means that these products do not provide a competitive disadvantage to domestic products, but at the same time local producers face lower input costs and can charge lower prices for their exports.
Business Monitor International's Canada Agribusiness service provides proprietary medium term price forecasts for key commodities, including corn, wheat, rice, sugar, cocoa, coffee, soy and milk; in addition to newly-researched competitive intelligence on leading agribusiness producers, traders and suppliers; in-depth analysis of latest industry developments; and essential industry context on Canada's agribusiness service. SHOW LESS READ MORE >
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Table: Canada Sugar Production & Consumption, 2011-2016
Table: Canada Sugar Production & Consumption, 2008-2012
Canada Livestock Outlook
Table: Canada Poultry Production & Consumption, 2011-2016
Table: Canada Pork Production & Consumption, 2011-2016
Table: Canada Beef & Veal Production & Consumption, 2011-2016
Table: Canada Poultry Production & Consumption, 2008-2012
Table: Canada Pork Production & Consumption, 2008-2012
Table: Canada Beef & Veal Production & Consumption, 2008-2012
Canada Dairy Outlook
Table: Canada Milk Production & Consumption , 2011-2016
Table: Canada Butter Production & Consumption, 2011-2016
Table: Canada Cheese Production & Consumption, 2011-2016
Table: Canada Milk Production & Consumption, 2008-2012
Table: Canada Butter Production & Consumption, 2008-2012
Table: Canada Cheese Production & Consumption, 2008-2012
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Table: Canada Wheat Production & Consumption, 2011-2016
Table: Canada Corn Production & Consumption, 2011-2016
Table: Canada Barley Production & Consumption, 2011-2016
Table: Canada Wheat Production & Consumption, 2008-2012
Table: Canada Corn Production & Consumption, 2008-2012
Table: Canada Barley Production & Consumption, 2008-2012
Commodity Price Analysis
Monthly Softs Update
Table: Food Consumption Indicators -Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016
Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales -Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016
Table: Canned Food Value/Volume Sales -Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016
Table: Fish, 2009-2016
Table: Frozen Fruit & Vegetables, 2009-2016
Table: Oils & Fats, 2009-2016
Mass Grocery Retail
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format -Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016
Table: Canada - Economic Activity
Country Snapshot: Canada Demographic Data
Section 1: Population
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030
Section 2: Education And Healthcare
Table: Education, 2000-2003
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030
Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power
Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006
Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$)
Table: Average Annual Manufacturing Wages, 2000-2012
Global Food & Drink View
Food & Drink Roundup Q112: Core Views
Table: Core Views
BMI Forecast Modelling
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts