RINs Report: Forecasts, trends and Compliance Planning for 2012

Hart Energy Publishing, November 2011

The RINs market continues to drive biofuels sales and increase the cost of compliance, and recent action by the U.S. EPA on violations has highlighted the risks and forced changes for all parties participating in the biofuels market. In the RINs Report, experts from Hart Energy interpret the challenges for 2012 from EPA policy, U.S. incentives, recent rulings, and global mandates. The report is a strategic planning tool which gives a though review of the RINs marketplace and helps businesses plan for compliance and new trade practices needed for 2012.

The RINs Report includes:

- Overviews of the RFS-2 Biofuels mandates in 2011 and 2012 and beyond
- RIN Market reviews and price forecasts, integrated with petroleum outlooks
- Effects from EPA rule changes for 2012 and expiring tax credits
- Market liquidity issues for producers and buyers
- Compliance costs, trends and risk management strategies
- Projections on the ethanol 10% blendwall, the California LCFS, future changes to the RFS

Executive Summary

I. Background

II. 2011 RIN Market
- Biodiesel Shortfall
- Ethanol
- Invalid RINs
- Tax Credit Worries
- The Advanced Biofuels Gap Appears

III. Changing Rules and Standards for 2012
- Lapsing Tax Incentives
- Limitations RIN Separation by Petroleum Importers
- 2013 Biodiesel Requirement and continued Cellulosic Biofuels Reduction

IV. 2012 Product Prices, Blend Margins, and RIN Pricing
- Blend Margins and RINs Volatility
- RINs Pricing Strategy: Base Blend Margins for 2012
- Market Sensitivity Approaching the Ethanol Blend Wall

V. 2012 RIN Strategy and Trends
- RIN Security
- Liquidity Contraction
- Banking

VI. The Future of the RFS
- Next Generation Fuels
- Ethanol Blend Wall Scenarios
- RFS 3 Scenarios

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