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IntelliNews Albania Country Report
Emerging Markets Direct, April 2012, Pages: 11
The IntelliNews Albania Country Report is a monthly report, covering the major macroeconomic indicators and trends in Albania, as well as important political developments. Prepared by local analysts, it provides the most accurate data, updated regularly according to the data changes noted by the whole range of statistics sources. It will save the time you would need to track the figures and sources independently and will provide you with thorough analysis.
Summary - March 2012
Albania’s economic growth slowed to 3.1% y/y in 2011 from 3.9% in 2010 and yet it was slightly above the government’s target of 3%. The GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2011 speeded up to 3.8% y/y from 2.8% in the previous three months. The transport sector and the trade, hotel and restaurants sector were the key growth drivers.
The Albanian government targets a real GDP growth of 4.3% for 2012, a very optimistic forecast when compared to the estimations of the IMF (1.5% y/y), the World Bank (2% y/y) and the EBRD (1.2% y/y). The three international institutions warned that the slower economic growth in the EU would have a negative impact on the local economy.
Consumer price inflation in the country accelerated for the first time in March after easing in the previous four months. Prices in March increased by 1% y/y, following a 0.6% rise in February.
Domestic demand revived somewhat in the final quarter of 2011 with the retail sales index picking up by 0.2% y/y, registering its first annual rise since the start of 2011. Retail sales dropped by 5.6% y/y in Q3, by 6.9% in Q2 and by 6% y/y in Q1.
Albania’s general government debt increased by 8% y/y to ALL 772bn (EUR 5.5bn) at the end of 2011, equalling to 58.8% of the GDP. The World Bank’s chief economist for Europe and Central Asia, Indermit Gill, said the country needs to reduce the level of its debt and consolidate public finances in order to ease access to foreign funding."
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
REAL SECTOR
1.GDP
Albania’s economic growth speeds up to 3.8% in Q4 2011.
2.Inflation
Albania’s consumer price growth speeds up to 1% y/y in March
3.Industry and Trade
Albania’s retail sales inch up 0.2% y/y in Q4
FISCAL SECTOR
Albania’s general budget deficit narrows 21.5% y/y in Jan-Feb.
World Bank says Albania needs to reduce government debt.
FINANCIAL SECTOR
Albanian bank assets grow 13.3% y/y in February 2012.
Albanian insurers’ premiums drop 24.6% y/y in Jan-Feb 2012.
EXTERNAL SECTOR
Albania’s foreign trade deficit widens 23.8% y/y in Jan-Feb 2012.
Albania’s current account deficit widens 12.4% in 2011.
Table 1 Albania's GDP
Table 2 Consumer prices
Table 3 Retail sales
Table 4 General budget
Table 5 Insurance premiums
Table 6 Foreign trade
Table 7 Balance of payments
Figure 1 Consumer Price Index
Figure 2 Albanian banks' assets
Figure 3 Foreign trade
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