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Country Forecast Ecuador Updater

  • ID: 2123785
  • Country Profile
  • March 2017
  • Region: Ecuador
  • 16 Pages
  • The Economist Intelligence Unit
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The Economist Intelligence Unit believes that Guillermo Lasso of the right-wing Creando Oportunidades will win the presidency at the second-round presidential election on April 2nd. He will take office in May 2017, replacing the current president, Rafael Correa of Alianza País (AP), who has been in power since 2007. A presidency under Mr Lasso would mark a significant change in tone and policy priorities, although he will head a minority government, limiting his effectiveness.

AP will continue to hold a majority in the National Assembly, and would prove to be a significant obstacle for Mr Lasso, should he win, given that much of his proposed programme would require constitutional changes, and therefore two-thirds legislative support. The incoming government will face strong opposition from indigenous and environmental groups to its plans to develop the mining and oil industries further, as well as from businesses and the middle class in the face of higher taxes. Government austerity, in order to adjust to the lower oil price climate, will incite further protests, but we do not anticipate a dramatic escalation.

Given weak oil prices in the short to medium term, we expect the administration to implement austerity measures and scale back public investment, with detrimental effects on the economy. As the state reduces public investment-and with the private sector slow to pick up the slack-we expect growth to remain flat in 2017 before resuming a contraction in 2018. Growth will accelerate to an average of 2.2% in 2019-21.
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Country Forecast Ecuador Updater

Country forecast overview: Highlights

Country forecast overview: Key indicators

Country forecast overview: Business environment rankings

Country forecast overview: Ecuador's business environment at a glance
Policy towards private enterprise and competition
Policy towards foreign investment
Foreign trade and exchange controls
Taxes
Financing
The labour market
Infrastructure

Fact sheet

Outlook for 2017-21: Political stability

Outlook for 2017-21: Election watch

Outlook for 2017-21: International relations

Outlook for 2017-21: Policy trends

Outlook for 2017-21: Fiscal policy

Outlook for 2017-21: Monetary policy

Outlook for 2017-21: Economic growth

Outlook for 2017-21: Inflation

Outlook for 2017-21: Exchange rates

Outlook for 2017-21: External sector

Data summary: Global outlook

Data summary: Gross domestic product, current market prices

Data summary: Gross domestic product, at constant prices

Data summary: Gross domestic product by sector of origin

Data summary: Growth and productivity

Data summary: Economic structure, income and market size

Data summary: Fiscal indicators

Data summary: Monetary indicators

Data summary: Employment, wages and prices

Data summary: Current account and terms of trade

Data summary: Foreign direct investment

Data summary: External debt

Data sources and definitions
Global data
Domestic data
Abbreviations
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Note: Product cover images may vary from those shown
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