Country Forecast Ecuador Updater
The Economist Intelligence Unit, May 2013, Pages: 16
The victory of the president, Rafael Correa, in the February 2013 election will ensure that the period of political stability that Ecuador has enjoyed over recent years will continue. His commanding majority in the National Assembly will ease the passage of legislation and remove obstacles to governability. The Economist Intelligence Unit expects Mr Correa's administration to maintain an expansive policy stance in 2013-17 and to continue its ambitious programme of public investment and infrastructure upgrading. High spending will keep the public accounts in deficit, although high forecast oil prices will support revenue. We expect real GDP growth to continue to slow in 2013 to 3.6% (from an estimated 4.8% in 2012) as public spending falls after the presidential election and as oil prices ease further. The government will continue to encourage private investment. However, persistent intervention by the authorities will act as a deterrent, as will the unpredictable policy environment. We expect the current account to remain in deficit during the forecast period.
Mr Correa's populist stance and confrontational style will remain a source of unpredictability both domestically and in Ecuador's foreign policy. However, recent progress towards a trade deal with the EU indicates an increased openness towards free trade.
Following Mr Correa's re-election in February, we expect broad policy continuity in 2013-17, characterised by firm public spending and investment.
Country Forecast Ecuador Updater
Ecuador at a glance: 2013-17
OVERVIEW
Key changes from last month
Political outlook
Economic policy outlook
Economic forecast
Country forecast overview: Highlights
Country forecast overview: Key indicators
Country forecast overview: Business environment rankings
Country forecast overview: Ecuador's business environment at a glance
Policy towards private enterprise and competition
Policy towards foreign investment
Foreign trade and exchange controls
Taxes
Financing
The labour market
Infrastructure
Fact sheet
Outlook for 2013-17: Political stability
Outlook for 2013-17: Election watch
Outlook for 2013-17: International relations
Outlook for 2013-17: Policy trends
Outlook for 2013-17: Fiscal policy
Outlook for 2013-17: Monetary policy
Outlook for 2013-17: Economic growth
Outlook for 2013-17: Inflation
Outlook for 2013-17: Exchange rates
Outlook for 2013-17: External sector
Data summary: Global outlook
Data summary: Gross domestic product, current market prices
Data summary: Gross domestic product, at constant prices
Data summary: Gross domestic product by sector of origin
Data summary: Growth and productivity
Data summary: Economic structure, income and market size
Data summary: Fiscal indicators
Data summary: Monetary indicators
Data summary: Employment, wages and prices
Data summary: Current account and terms of trade
Data summary: Foreign direct investment
Data summary: External debt
Data sources and definitions
Global data
Domestic data
Abbreviations
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