Research And Markets Research And Markets

Country Forecast Ecuador Updater

  • ID: 2123785
  • August 2016
  • Region: Ecuador
  • 16 Pages
  • The Economist Intelligence Unit
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The president, Rafael Correa, in office since 2007, is facing political headwinds in his final year in office, given a less favourable economic environment. Mr Correa has now been in office for nine consecutive years, a record for an Ecuadorean president. The National Assembly (Ecuador's Congress) has amended the constitution to permit indefinite re-election. This will not take effect until 2021, meaning that, as things stand, this term will be Mr Correa's last under his current mandate. However, a potential referendum, approved in April, could overturn this measure, allowing him to stand again (although this does not form part of The Economist Intelligence Unit's baseline forecast).

The ruling Alianza País movement has a strong majority in the National Assembly, reducing obstacles to governability. However, Mr Correa currently faces strong opposition from indigenous and environmental groups to his plans to develop the mining and oil industries further, as well as from businesses and the middle class in the face of higher taxes. Barring a dramatic escalation, we do not expect this to have an adverse effect on broader political stability.

Given weaker oil prices in the short to medium term, we expect the adminis-tration to scale back public investment, which will hit the economy. As the state withdraws from public investment, and with the private sector slow to pick up the slack, we expect growth to contract in 2016-17. Weak oil prices will constrain overall revenue gains, but external borrowing will close fiscal gaps.

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Country Forecast Ecuador Updater

Country forecast overview: Highlights

Country forecast overview: Key indicators

Country forecast overview: Business environment rankings

Country forecast overview: Ecuador's business environment at a glance
Policy towards private enterprise and competition
Policy towards foreign investment
Foreign trade and exchange controls
The labour market

Fact sheet

Outlook for 2016-20: Political stability

Outlook for 2016-20: Election watch

Outlook for 2016-20: International relations

Outlook for 2016-20: Policy trends

Outlook for 2016-20: Fiscal policy

Outlook for 2016-20: Monetary policy

Outlook for 2016-20: Economic growth

Outlook for 2016-20: Inflation

Outlook for 2016-20: Exchange rates

Outlook for 2016-20: External sector

Data summary: Global outlook

Data summary: Gross domestic product, current market prices

Data summary: Gross domestic product, at constant prices

Data summary: Gross domestic product by sector of origin

Data summary: Growth and productivity

Data summary: Economic structure, income and market size

Data summary: Fiscal indicators

Data summary: Monetary indicators

Data summary: Employment, wages and prices

Data summary: Current account and terms of trade

Data summary: Foreign direct investment

Data summary: External debt

Data sources and definitions
Global data
Domestic data

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Note: Product cover images may vary from those shown