Thailand Power Report Q2 2012
Business Monitor International, April 2012, Pages: 58
Thailand Power Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, power associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Thailand's power industry.
Thailand is capable of avoiding an increase in power import dependency if it attracts sufficient investment, but the country may have to bring nuclear or controversial imported hydropower into the long-term equation in order to ensure adequate capacity. Coal and gas currently form too large a part of the generating portfolio, and renewables potential appears to be less significant than in many other Asian countries.
Events in Japan have made the Thai authorities hesitate over the country’s long-term nuclear reactor plans, but it is hard to see how the country can avoid this form of power diversification unless it builds still greater dependency on imported gas, coal or hydro. Fresh efforts can be expected by Thai utilities to build capacity in neighbouring countries such as Myanmar, providing a new source of electricity supply.
Key trends and recent developments in the Thai electricity market include:
- During the period 2012-2021, Thailand’s overall power generation is expected to increase by an annual average of 4.95%, reaching 252.1TWh. Driving this growth are annual 5.2% and 4.1% respective gains in gas-fired and hydro generation, augmenting an 11.2% average rise in the use of renewables.
Energy officials in Bangkok have drawn up no fewer than nine 15-year plans to add between 27GW and 37GW to installed generating capacity by 2021. All of the plans call for the use of coal and nuclear energy, with coal set to generate up to 21GW, while nuclear power would account for about 4GW.
Thailand can meet its future energy needs without any additional hydropower imports or further investment in coal or nuclear energy, a new study shows. International Rivers commissioned the study and, in it, the authors say that Thailand does not need to purchase electricity from the controversial Xayaburi dam on the Mekong River in Laos to meet its domestic energy demands. The authors analysed the government’s current Power Development Plan (PDP 2010) and found that it overestimated power demand over the next 20 years by 13.2GW.
- Following an increase in 2011 real GDP of an assumed 1.5%, BMI forecasts average annual growth of 4.2% between 2012 and 2021. The population is expected to rise slightly from 68.5mn to 71.6mn during the period 2012-2021, and net power consumption looks set to increase from 144.2TWh to 234.1TWh. During the period 2012-2021, the average annual growth rate for electricity demand is forecast at 4.96%. Thailand’s power supply shortfall of around 1.1TWh is set to rise over the medium- to longer-term, unless extra capacity is added later in the forecast period. A broadly unchanged percentage of transmission and distribution losses at around 6.3-6.5% will do little to help balance the market. The theoretical net import requirement by 2021 is put at 2.2TWh.
Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
Thailand Power SWOT
Global Industry Overview
Regional Industry Overview
Asia Power Risk/Reward Ratings (Scores Out Of 100)
Industry Forecast Scenario
Thailand Snapshot (Macro)
Table: Thailand Snapshot: Economic And Demographic Data
Table: Thailand Snapshot: Power Sector
Thailand Forecast Scenario
Electricity Generation And Power Generating Capacity
Table: Thailand Total Generation Data And Forecasts, 2008-2016
Table: Thailand Total Generation Long-Term Forecasts, 2013-2021
Table: Thailand Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts, 2008-2016
Table: Thailand Electricity Generating Capacity Long-Term Forecasts 2013-2021
Electricity Consumption
Table: Thailand Total Consumption Data And Forecasts, 2008-2016
Table: Thailand Total Consumption Long-Term Forecasts, 2013-2021
Transmission & Distribution, Imports & Exports
Table: Thailand Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Data And Forecasts, 2008-2016
Table: Thailand Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Long-Term Forecasts, 2013-2021
Table: Thailand Trade Data And Forecasts, 2008-2016
Table: Thailand Trade Long-Term Forecasts, 2013-2021
Key Policies/Market Structure
Regulation and Competition
Key Projects Database
Table: Major Infrastructure Projects – Power Plants And Transmission Grids
Business Environment
Asia Regional Power Risk/Reward Ratings
Table: Asia Power Risk/Reward Ratings (Scores Out Of 100)
Power Risk/Reward Ratings
Thailand Power Rating
Rewards
Risks
Competitive Landscape/Company Monitor
Electricity Generating Authority Of Thailand (EGAT)
Independent Power (Thailand)
Glow Energy
CLP/EGCO
Ratchaburi Electricity Generating Holding Public Company Limited (RATCH)
Glossary of Terms
Table: Glossary of Terms
Methodology and Sources
Industry Forecasts
Power Industry - Data Methodology
Generation and Consumption Data
Electricity Generation Capacity Data
Power Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
Table: Power Risk/Reward Indicators
Sources
- Electricity Generating Authority Of Thailand (EGAT)
- Independent Power (Thailand)
- Glow Energy
- CLP/EGCO
- Ratchaburi Electricity Generating Holding Public Company Limited (RATCH)
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