South Africa Tourism Report Q2 2012
Business Monitor International, April 2012, Pages: 57
South Africa Tourism Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, tourism associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on South Africa's tourism industry.
Tourism Overview
Latest figures for the first 11 months of 2011 show modest growth of 2.7% year-on-year (y-o-y) in tourist arrivals. Growth in the number of visitors from Europe was poor at -4.4% (more than 52,000 fewer tourists) compared with the same period in 2010, but this was understandable given the strength of tourism from Europe in 2010 when South Africa hosted football the World Cup. Arrivals from Africa, the key source market, were up by a relatively favourable 6.7% y-o-y (an increase of about 350,000 visitors).
Although the region accounted for only around 4% of total arrivals, the strongest growth in visitors was from Asia, with visitor numbers up by over 13% y-o-y. The key source markets in Europe, the UK and Germany, recorded sharply different growth rates of -8% and 10% y-o-y respectively. In contrast to previous years, growth in arrivals from Zimbabwe was low at about 2% y-o-y (an increase of about 30,000 people). Despite relatively low absolute numbers, India and China continue to record strong growth rates in arrivals, up by 27% and 22% y-o-y respectively in January-November 2011.
Hospitality Final preliminary data show another downturn in the hospitality sector during 2011, although the last quarter of the year provided a strong rebound. This is the third year in a row that the sector has recorded negative growth. The total number of foreign and domestic tourist room nights in all accommodation establishments fell by 3% y-o-y in 2011. In Q411, however, total tourist room nights were up by nearly 11% y-o-y and there was a solid 12.5% y-o-y increase December – compared with -4.5% y-o-y in Q111, -11.3% y-o-y in Q211 and -1.8% y-o-y in Q311.
Forecast Scenario
Annual growth in foreign tourist arrivals is estimated at just under 3% in 2011, which is reasonable growth considering the high level of the base year, 2010. A modest pick-up in growth is forecast for 2012, largely due to acceleration in economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), with 5.9% and 6.0% forecast in the region in 2012 and 2013 respectively. BMI has also revised down its growth figures for the eurozone to -0.5% in 2012 and 1.3% in 2013. The South African rand was propelled lower in H211, partly by broad-based global risk aversion, but it recovered in early 2012. Our medium to-long-term view is for stability of the rand against the US dollar and appreciation against the euro. BMI believes the strength of the rand over the long term will act as a constraint on international tourism.
O.R. Tambo International Airport
During April 2011 to January 2012), there was very slight growth in international passenger numbers of just under 1% y-o-y at Johannesburg’s O.R. Tambo International Airport (ORTIA). If we exclude the sharp negative growth in June 2011 (-15% y-o-y) however – as the base month in June 2010 was the key month of the World Cup – growth was slightly more favourable at almost 3% y-o-y over this period.
South African Airways
South African Airways (SAA) started flying to Pointe-Noire, Congo, in January 2012. In the same month, the carrier began non-stop flights between Johannesburg and Beijing. In February, SAA announced plans to increase its long-haul fleet of 24 aircraft to up to 31 over the next five years, while also renewing its short-haul fleet entirely, replacing its Boeing 737-800 aircraft with more fuel-efficient Airbus A320 planes. Also in February, SAA announced a code-share agreement with Air China.
Sun International
In a business update for the six months through to December 31 2011, Sun International reported a 9% y-o-y increase in revenue to nearly ZAR4.9bn. Casino revenue was up by the same amount to ZAR3.8bn. Revenue from rooms was also up by 9%, totalling ZAR506mn. The group achieved occupancy of 65.8%, 1.1 percentage points (pp) lower than a year earlier, at an average room rate of ZAR996 (up by 11% y-oy). The company said although revenue from gaming and hotels should improve, the trading environment will remain challenging over the next six months.
Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
South Africa Tourism SWOT
South Africa Political SWOT
South Africa Economic SWOT
South Africa Business Environment SWOT
Industry Forecast Scenario
Arrivals
Table: Arrivals, 2009-2016
Accommodation
Table: Hotels Data, 2009-2016 (‘000)
Expenditure
Table: Tourist Expenditure And Economic Impact, 2009-2016
Inbound Tourism
Table: Inbound Tourism, 2009-2016
Outbound Tourism
Table: Outbound Tourism, 2009-2016
The ‘World Cup Effect’
Table: Key Tourism Source Markets That Participated In The 2010 World Cup
Market Overview – Travel
Airports
Commercial Airlines
Special Focus: Jet Fuel Costs
Global Oil Products Price
Market Overview – Hospitality
Accommodation Developments
Casinos
Table: Key Players In South Africa’s Hotel And Gaming Industry
Game Lodges
Regional Case Study: Accor
Table: Accor Hotel Business In Selected Middle East And Africa Countries, December 2011
Business Environment Outlook
Table: Middle East And Africa Travel And Tourism Business Environment Ratings
BMI’s Security Ratings
Table: Middle East And Africa Defence And Security Ratings
Table: Middle East And Africa State Vulnerability To Terrorism Index
South Africa’s Security Ratings
Global Assumptions
Table: Global Assumptions, 2010-2016
Table: Global And Regional Real GDP Growth, 2010-2013 (% change y-o-y)
Table: Developed Market Exchange Rates, 2011-2013
Table: Emerging Market Exchange Rates, 2010-2013
Developed States
Table: Developed States Real GDP Growth, 2010-2013
Emerging Markets
Table: Emerging Markets Real GDP Growth. 2010-2013
Consensus
Table: BMI And Bloomberg Consensus Real GDP Growth Forecasts, 2011 And 2012 (%)
Company Profiles
South African Airways
Southern Sun
Sun International
BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Tourism Industry
Tourism Ratings – Methodology
Table: Tourism Business Environment Indicators
Table: Weighting Of Components
Sources
- South African Airways
- Southern Sun
- Sun International
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