Argentina Power Report Q2 2012

BMI View: Energy subsidies were under the spotlight again in January 2012, with President Cristina Fernández taking the decision to automatically remove subsidies on water, gas and electricity bills for residents in selected neighbourhoods and public places. While BMI does not expect these cuts to affect demand in the short term, we do believe that they will have an effect on consumption patterns should they be implemented nationwide – although such a move would be highly unpopular.

Furthermore, plans have been announced for new wind farms, underlining the government’s commitment to renewable energy expansion: regulations call for 8% of electricity to be generated by renewable sources by 2016. That said, with most thermal power plants already running at capacity, and with cuts to domestic energy production making the headlines, the country risks being subject to growing import dependency. Until the authorities change their interventionist style, it will be difficult to attract international investors.

Between 2011 and 2016, Argentina’s overall power generation is expected to increase by an annual average of 2.0%, reaching 130 terawatt hours (TWh). Driving this growth is an annual 6.53% gain in coal-fired generation and a 3.59% rise gas-fired generation, accompanied by annual increases in renewables-based electricity supply. There is scope to expand Argentina’s hydroelectricity capacity: the winning bid for the Garabí and Panambí project on the Uruguay river (on the border with Brazil) was scheduled to be announced in March 2012, and plans for new wind power capacity have also been revealed.

Following estimated growth in real GDP of 7.0% in 2011, BMI forecasts average annual growth of 3.2% between 2011 and 2021. BMI calculates that net power consumption will increase from 113.3TWh to 128.0TWh by 2016. During 2011-2016, the average annual growth rate for electricity demand is forecast at 2.47%, but it will slow later in the decade to average 1.0% in 2016-2021.

Argentina’s power supply shortfall is likely to increase over the short term, but should fall appreciably later in the decade as new capacity comes online. The theoretical net import requirement by 2016 is forecast at 14.78TWh, but it should be no more than 12.02TWh by 2021. Key developments for Argentina’s power sector this quarter include:

- From January 1 2012, water, electricity and gas subsidies were automatically removed from the bills of users in selected neighbourhoods and public clubs. The government has issued a request for users to voluntarily renounce their right to these subsidies.

- In February and March 2010, oil firm YPF faced government accusations that it had reduced production, overcharged and had a pending tax bill. Local media speculated that some politicians were calling for parts of YPF to be renationalised.

- In March 2012, the government announced that Parques Eólicos Vientos del Sur plans to construct a 50 megawatts (MW) wind farm in Utracán.

Business Monitor International's Argentina Power Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, power associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Argentina's power industry. SHOW LESS READ MORE >

Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
Argentina Power SWOT
Global Industry Overview
Regional Industry Overview
Industry Forecast Scenario
Argentina Snapshot (Macro)
Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data
Country Snapshot: Power Sector
Argentina Forecast Scenario
Electricity Generation And Power Generating Capacity
Table: Argentina Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts, 2008-2016
Table: Argentina Total Electricity Generation Long-Term Forecasts, 2013-2021
Table: Argentina Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts, 2008-2016
Table: Argentina Electricity Generating Capacity Long-Term Forecasts, 2013-2021
Electricity Consumption
Table: Argentina Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts, 2008-2016
Table: Argentina Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts, 2013-2021
Transmission & Distribution, Imports & Exports
Table: Argentina Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Data And Forecasts, 2008-2016
Table: Argentina Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Lon-Term Forecasts, 2013-2021
Table: Argentina Trade Data And Forecasts, 2008-2016
Table: Argentina Trade Data And Long-Term Forecasts, 2013-2021
Key Policies/Market Structure
Regulation And Competition
Pricing
Sustainable Energy Policies
Key Projects Database
Table: Major Projects – Power Plants & Transmission Grids
Risk Reward Ratings
Latin America Power Regional Risk/Reward Ratings
Table: Latin America Risk/Reward Ratings
Argentina Power Risk/Reward Rating
Rewards
Risks
Competitive Landscape
Pampa Energia
Transener
CAMMESA
Edenor
Endesa/Edesur
Edelap
Company Profiles
Pampa Energia
Glossary Of Terms
Table: Glossary Of Terms
Methodology And Sources
Industry Forecasts
Power Industry – Data Methodology
Generation And Consumption Data
Electricity Generation Capacity Data
Power Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
Table: Power Risk/Reward Indicators
Sources

- Pampa Energia