Cameroon Oil and Gas Report Q2 2012

Business Monitor International, May 2012, Pages: 62

BMI View: With declining production and few new projects expected to come on-stream in the next decade, Cameroon’s upstream oil outlook seems rather unsteady. Meanwhile, a more efficient usage of associated gas, through the limitation of flaring, and the development of domestic resources offer prospects for booming growth in the gas upstream with opportunity for LNG exports.

Main trends and developments we highlight for Cameroon’s Oil and Gas sector are as follows:

- BMI expects growth in oil production to be somewhat irregular in the next decade with output of 60,000 barrels per day (b/d) in 2011, peaking at 87,000b/d in 2014 and 2015 before falling back to 79,000b/d in 2017, then hitting 84,000b/d in 2018 and finally settling around 78,000b/d in 2021. This chaotic growth is explained by the limited number of new projects, which implies that each time new volumes come on-stream, total output surges before slowly decreasing as a result of a decline in output from already-producing fields.

- Meanwhile, consumption of crude is likely to rise at an average rate of 5.6% from 2011 to 2021. We therefore anticipate that consumption will rise from an estimated 32,000b/d in 2011, to hit 55,000b/d by 2021.

- BMI forecasts that gas production will increase from 0.03bn cubic metres (bcm) in 2011 to 5.78bcm by 2021, as the authorities and companies reduce the practice of flaring and start monetising associated gas resources. Gas production is to be boosted further by new projects with considerable associated gas production, such as Victoria Oil and Gas’ Logbaba project (6bcm). Gas output growth will be bolstered by domestic demand but also by export prospects, notably in the form of LNG as suggested by the proposed 4.8bcm LNG terminal in Kribi.

- Gas demand is set to rise at an average rate of 23.7% on the back of numerous infrastructure projects that will boost domestic consumption. The most notable of these projects is the 150 megawatt (MW) Kribi power plant. As a result, we see gas consumption rising from 0.03bcm in 2011 to 0.18bcm by 2021.

- Cameroonian crude reserves are likely to continue declining as increased output will result in high depletion rates. We see proved oil reserves falling from 200mn barrels (bbl) in 2011 to 160mn bbl in 2021. The reserves-to-production ratio will fall from little more than nine years to just under six years. With regard to gas, the outlook is less dire as the potential for discoveries offers more stable prospects. We see reserves hovering between 140bcm and 150bcm throughout the decade.

- In the downstream sector, the authorities have adopted a very realistic stance. The government ambitions to expand capacity at Société Nationale de Raffinage (SONARA), the country’s only refinery located in Cape Limboh, from 42,200b/d to 70,300b/d; and to upgrade the facility so that it will be able to process the heavy crude oil that is produced in Cameroon, and not simply imported light grades.

Cameroon’s dependence on oil prices leads to high volatility in the country’s export revenues. Our assumptions of tight supply due to booming demand in emerging markets is clearly an opportunity for the country. As a result, we assume OPEC basket oil prices to increase from US$107.52/bbl in 2011 to US$111.47/bbl in 2012, thus creating an upside risk for the Cameroonian macroeconomic outlook.

Business Monitor International's Cameroon Oil and Gas Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, oil and gas associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Cameroon's oil and gas industry.

BMI Industry View
SWOT Analysis
Cameroon Oil and Gas SWOT
Global Energy Market Outlook
Table: Libya Production Update: Main Fields (As Of January 9 2012)
Table: Global Oil Consumption 2009-2016, 000b/d
Table: Global Oil Production 2009-2016, 000b/d
Regional Energy Market Outlook
Cameroon Energy Market Overview
Table: Upstream Projects Database
Industry Forecast Scenario
Oil and Gas Reserves
Table: Industry Summary Data, 2008-2016
Table: Industry Summary Data, 2013-2021
Oil Supply and Demand
Revenues/Import Costs
Key Risks To BMI’s Forecast Scenario
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
Oil Refineries
Table: Refineries In Cameroon
Service Stations
Oil Storage Facilities
Oil Terminals/Ports
Oil Pipelines
LNG Terminals
Regional and Country Risk/Reward Ratings
Table: Upstream Risk / Reward Ratings
Table: Downstream Risk / Reward Ratings
Cameroon Upstream Rating – Overview
Cameroon Upstream Rating – Rewards
Cameroon Upstream Rating – Risks
Cameroon Downstream Rating – Overview
Cameroon Downstream Rating – Rewards
Cameroon Downstream Rating – Risks
Competitive Landscape
Executive Summary
Table: Key Players – Cameroon Energy Sector
Overview/State Role
Licensing And Regulation
Government Policy
Licensing Rounds
International Energy Relations
Table: Key Upstream Players
Table: Key Downstream Players
Company Monitor
Perenco
Victoria Oil & Gas – Summary
Total – Summary
Sterling Energy – Summary
Petronas – Summary
Noble Energy – Summary
Bowleven Oil And Gas – Summary
Kosmos Energy – Summary
Addax/Pecten – Summary
Africa – Regional Appendix
Table: Oil Consumption, (000b/d) 2009-2016
Table: Oil Consumption, (000b/d) 2014-2021
Table: Oil Production, (000b/d) 2009-2016
Table: Oil Production, (000b/d) 2014-2021
Table: Refining Capacity, (000b/d) 2009-2016
Table: Refining Capacity, (000b/d) 2014-2021
Table: Gas Consumption, (bcm) 2009-2016
Table: Gas Consumption, (bcm) 2014-2021
Table: Gas Production, (bcm) 2009-2016
Table: Gas Production, (bcm) 2014-2021
LNG Net Exports, (bcm) 2009-2016
LNG Net Exports, (bcm) 2014-2021
Methodology And Risks To Forecasts
Glossary Of Terms
Oil And Gas Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
Ratings Overview
Table: BMI’s Oil & Gas Business Environment Ratings – Structure
Indicators
Table: BMI’s Oil & Gas Upstream Ratings – Methodology
Table: BMI’s Oil & Gas Business Environment Downstream Ratings – Methodology
BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Energy Industry
Cross checks
Sources

- Perenco
- Victoria Oil & Gas
- Total
- Sterling Energy
- Petronas
- Noble Energy
- Bowleven Oil And Gas
- Kosmos Energy
- Addax/Pecten

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