Canada Defence and Security Report Q2 2012
Business Monitor International, May 2012, Pages: 55
Canada will spend up to US$18.5bn on defence for FY2011/12. Over the long term, the country’s defence budget is expected to grow to eventually reach around US$30bn annually by 2027. This budgetary increase will not only allow the numerical enlargement of the armed forces, but will also permit a wholesale modernisation of the Canadian armed forces. In recent years, the capabilities of the Canadian Army, Royal Canadian Navy and the Royal Canadian Air Force have languished somewhat, however the Conservative government of Prime Minister Stephen Harper has been keen to enhance and deepen the participation of the Canadian armed forces in overseas contingencies; as witnessed by the participation of the Royal Canadian Air Force and Royal Canadian Navy in NATO combat operations over, around and in Libya in 2011.
Currently, the Canadian armed forces comprise around 75,120 active personnel and reservists spread across all three services. Each of the Canadian armed forces is represented at the country’s National Defence Headquarters in the capital, Ottawa, with bases spread throughout the country. Although its deployment to Afghanistan is now complete, Canada continues to maintain a logistics base in Germany.
Moreover, Ottawa recently embarked upon an initiative to deepen its defence cooperation with Israel.
Canada is a major contributor to NATO, and an enthusiastic player in this multilateral alliance. Over the coming years, the Canadian armed forces is expected to complete a number of important procurements to enhance its capabilities across all three services. Arguably the largest programme will be the Royal Canadian Air Force’s acquisition of Lockheed Martin F-35 Lightning-II Joint Strike Fighter aircraft. Although some Canadian politicians have threatened to leave the F-35 initiative, this does seem unlikely; however, the size of Canada’s eventual F-35 purchase could diminish. Meanwhile, deliveries of new freighter aircraft are ongoing, while a Medium Altitude Long Endurance Unmanned Aerial Vehicle will be purchased in the coming years. This will occur alongside purchases of new maritime patrol and search & rescue aircraft, and new medium-lift utility helicopters.
The Canadian Army has recently acquired new main battle tanks, and is also enhancing its armoured vehicles fleet through upgrades and acquisitions. A similarly ambitious programme is being rolled out across the Royal Canadian Navy. This will see the purchase of new surface combatants to replace the fleet’s existing destroyers and frigates, plus new arctic patrol ships, and underway replenishment vessels. These purchases are expected to be possible thanks to the moderate increase in the defence budget, which is outlined above.
Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
Canada Political SWOT
Canada Economic SWOT
Global Political Outlook
Major Risks Looming In 2012-2013
Global Flashpoints: Eurozone, Iran, Syria, Afghanistan, Korean Peninsula
Table: Election Timetable, Q212-Q113
Wild Cards To Watch
Security Risk Analysis
Table: Developed States Security Risk Ratings (scores out of 100, with 100 the best)
Table: Developed States Vulnerability To Terrorism Index
Political Overview
Domestic Politics
Table: Canadian House Of Commons Seats Before And After Fair Representation Act
Long-Term Political Outlook
Domestic Security Overview
Internal Security Situation
Security Developments
External Security Situation
Armed Forces And Government Spending
Armed Forces
International Deployments
Table: Canada’s Foreign Deployments
Weapons Of Mass Destruction
Market Overview
Arms Trade Overview
Industry Trends And Developments
Procurement Trends And Developments
Industry Forecast Scenario
Armed Forces
Table: Canada’s Armed Forces, 2000-2004 (’000 personnel, unless otherwise stated)
Table: Canada’s Availability Of Manpower For Military Services, 2009-2016 (aged 16-49, unless otherwise stated)
Government Expenditure
Table: Canada’s Government Defence Expenditure, 2009-2016
Table: Canada’s Defence Expenditure Scenario – Changing % Of GDP, 2009-2016 (US$mn)
Defence Trade
Table: Canada’s Defence Exports, 2009-2016 (US$mn)
Table: Canada’s Defence Imports, 2009-2016 (US$mn)
Table: Canada’s Defence Trade Balance, 2009-2016 (US$mn and % change y-o-y)
Macroeconomic Forecast
Table: Canada – Economic Activity, 2011-2016
Company Profiles
CAE
Lockheed Martin
L-3 Communications
Raytheon Canada Limited
BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Defence Industry
Sources
- CAE
- Lockheed Martin
- L Communications
- Raytheon Canada Limited
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