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France Power Report Q2 2012
Business Monitor International, May 2012, Pages: 57
BMI View: Nuclear generation remains the first choice for the French power industry, but there are challenges ahead. A review by the Nuclear Security Authority, published in January 2012, has called for stricter safety measures to be implemented at EdF’s reactors, which will prove costly. In the meantime, interest in renewables is growing, with three consortia (formed mainly of French firms), submitting bids for the first phase development of offshore wind farms, and the creation of a new company, Force Hydro (a joint venture led by Vattenfall), which is aiming to capitalise on an hydroelectric generation capacity tender, due in 2012.
During the period 2012-2021, French power generation is expected to increase by an annual average of 1.07%, reaching 602TWh. Driving this growth is an annual 1.55% gain in gas-fired generation, an increase of 1.26% in nuclear power and a 4.0% rise in renewables-based electricity supply. Coal-fired generation looks set to fall steadily during the forecast period, reflecting moves towards a greener and cleaner supply slate. With a likely reduction in oil-fired power, natural gas will be the thermal source of choice for France, particularly in combined cycle projects.
Following an increase in 2011 real GDP of an assumed 1.80%, BMI forecasts average annual growth of 1.59% between 2012 and 2021. The population is expected to rise from the current level of 63.1mn to 66.1mn during the period, and net power consumption looks set to increase from an estimated 458TWh in 2011 to 508TWh by 2021. During the period 2012-2021, the average annual growth rate for electricity demand is forecast at 1.04%.
Thanks partly to the forecast rise in net generation, growth of which exceeds that of the underlying demand trend, the French power supply surplus is likely to increase as new nuclear capacity kicks in. A gradual decline in the percentage of transmission and distribution (T&D) losses – from around 6.4% in 2011 – will help strengthen the market. The theoretical net export capability by 2021 is put at 56.5TWh.
The publication of the Nuclear Safety Authority (ASN)’s review of France’s nuclear power plants in January 2012 has brought mixed news for the sector. While the ASN confirms that no nuclear plants need to be decommissioned for safety reasons, it does make a series of recommendations to improve the security of nuclear plants in France, which will cost around EUR10bn to implement. EdF has until June 2012 to formulate a response to this request.
In January 2012, three consortia submitted bids to construct France’s first offshore wind farm – winning bids will be preselected in April 2012. In the same month, a second phase of bidding for additional capacity will open.
Business Monitor International's France Power Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, power associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on France's power industry.
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Table: France Electricity Generating Capacity Long Term Forecasts, 2014 - 2021
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Electricité de France (EdF)
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- Electricité de France (EdF)
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