Gabon Oil and Gas Report Q2 2012
Business Monitor International, May 2012, Pages: 63
Executive Summary BMI View: Gabon must tempt new investment in exploration and production or face a decline in output as fields mature. We expect oil volumes to fall from 241,000b/d in 2012 to 234,000b/d by 2016. The government does appear to be making efforts to improve the country’s upstream environment by establishing more flexible licensing terms and a favourable tax code. However, the industry continues to be dogged by labour unrest over the level of foreign involvement. This may scare potential investors away and thereby quicken the rate of decline, raising downside risks to our forecasts.
Main trends and developments we highlight for Gabon’s oil and gas sector are as follows:
- BMI expects oil production to fall from 241,000 barrels per day (b/d) in 2012, to 234,000b/d in 2016, as fields mature. That rate of decline may prove to be too optimistic if labour unrest continues and no new exploration and production investment emerges.
- We expect new investment in exploration will be driven by subsalt successes in areas with similar geology on both sides of the Atlantic transform margin. However, at this stage few new drilling campaigns have been announced. So BMI has left its oil reserves forecasts unchanged.
- Consumption of crude is likely to rise steadily, albeit from a low base. We expect demand to rise from 19,000b/d in 2012 to 21,000 by 2016. This level remains within the limits of the 24,000b/d Port Gentil refinery; however, concrete steps to expand capacity are likely to take shape towards the end of the forecast period (2021) in anticipation of higher demand.
- BMI estimates that gas production will continue to rise in line with consumption over the next decade. Indeed, the government is likely to increase the use of gas in power generation and industry now that basic infrastructure is in place to harness and transport associated gas volumes to the main consuming markets. As demand rises, we are likely to see a gradual fall in the amount of gas lost through flaring which could push marketed volumes to as much as 0.27bn cubic metres (bcm) by 2021.
- The dispute between the government and local union ONEP remains the most significant risk to our forecasts. At present ongoing discussions between the union and the government have averted a second strike but there is a serious risk of re-escalation. The unrest has been very damaging to Gabon’s upstream business environment, making a speedy settlement essential. However, the government will have to steer a very difficult course between ameliorating the concerns of the powerful ONEP union, while not alienating foreign oil companies through reactionary and populist regulatory reform.
At the time of writing we assume an OPEC basket oil price for 2012 of US$99.38 per barrel (bbl), falling to US$97.23/bbl in 2013. Global GDP in 2012 is forecast at 2.6%, down from an assumed 3.1% in 2011, reflecting a faltering recovery in the US and an uncertain eurozone debt situation. For 2013, growth is forecast at 3.3%.
Business Monitor International's Gabon Oil and Gas Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, oil and gas associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Gabon's oil and gas industry.
BMI Industry View
SWOT Analysis
Gabon Oil And Gas SWOT
Global Energy Market Outlook
Table: Libya Production Update: Main Fields (As Of January 9 2012)
Table: Global Oil Consumption 2009-2016, 000b/d
Table: Global Oil Production 2009-2016, 000b/d
Regional Energy Market Outlook
Gabon Energy Market Overview
Table: Upstream Projects Database
Industry Forecast Scenario
Oil And Gas Reserves
Oil Supply And Demand
Gas Supply And Demand
Table: Industry summary Data, 2008-2016
Table: Industry summary Data, 2013-2021
Refining And Oil Products Trade
Revenues/Import Costs
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
Oil Refineries
Gas Facilities
Regional And Country Risk/Reward Ratings
Upstream Risk / Reward Ratings
Downstream Risk / Reward Ratings
Competitive Landscape
Executive Summary
Table: Key Players – Gabon Energy Sector
Overview/State Role
Licensing And Regulation
Government Policy
Licensing Rounds
Table: Key Upstream Players
Table: Key Downstream Players
Company Monitor
Addax Petroleum
Total Gabon – Summary
Shell Gabon – Summary
Maurel & Prom – Summary
Vaalco Energy – Summary
Perenco – Summary
Eni – Summary
Tullow Oil – Summary
Petrobras – Summary
Panoro – Summary
Harvest – Summary
Table: Oil Consumption, (000b/d) 2009-2016
Table: Oil Consumption, (000b/d) 2014-2021
Table: Oil Production, (000b/d) 2009-2016
Table: Oil Production, (000b/d) 2014-2021
Table: Refining Capacity, (000b/d) 2009-2016
Table: Refining Capacity, (000b/d) 2014-2021
Table: Gas Consumption, (bcm) 2009-2016
Table: Gas Consumption, (bcm) 2014-2021
Table: Gas Production, (bcm) 2009-2016
Table: Gas Production, (bcm) 2014-2021
LNG Net Exports, (bcm) 2009-2016
LNG Net Exports, (bcm) 2014-2021
Methodology And Risks To Forecasts
Glossary Of Terms
Oil And Gas Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
Ratings Overview
Table: BMI’s Oil & Gas Business Environment Ratings – Structure
Indicators
Table: BMI’s Oil & Gas Upstream Ratings – Methodology
Table: BMI’s Oil & Gas Business Environment Downstream Ratings – Methodology
BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Energy Industry
Cross checks
Sources
- Addax Petroleum
- Total Gabon
- Shell Gabon
- Maurel & Prom
- Vaalco Energy
- Perenco
- Eni
- Tullow Oil
- Petrobras
- Panoro
- Harvest
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