Spain Agribusiness Report Q2 2012
Business Monitor International, May 2012, Pages: 65
BMI View: Severe droughts in Spain's main growing regions in recent months have severely affected grain crops during plantings. As a result, we have revised down our forecasts for wheat, corn and barley production for 2012/13. We believe dry conditions could also affect the livestock and dairy industries via herd growth in pasture lands, and therefore meat and dairy production. These dynamics are likely to be aggravated a continued credit tightening in Spain, which will make it difficult for farmers to reinvest in production in the medium term.
Key Forecasts
- Wheat production to 2015/16: 22.8% to 6.9mn tonnes. We believe adverse weather conditions this year will not be repeated; production is therefore expected to recover to average levels in 2013/14 and to continue to grow throughout our forecast period to 2015/16.
- Cheese consumption to 2015/16: 19.5% to 417,400 tonnes. Traditionally, cheese was consumed mostly during social occasions in Spain. It is now becoming increasingly popular and a household staple.
- Pork production to 2015/16: 8.3% to 3.8mn tonnes. We note that two new EU directives on swine farming are likely to force some less efficient producers to leave the industry in the run-up to 2013.
- 2012 GDP growth: -2.1% (from 0.7% growth in 2011)
- 2012 consumer price index: 2.0% annual average (from 1.3% in 2011)
- BMI universe agribusiness market value: 7.1% year-on-year (y-o-y) decline to US$13.3bn in 2011/12, forecast to average US$12.8bn between 2010/11 and 2015/16.
Industry Developments
We have revised down our forecast for EU wheat production in 2012/13 in line with the latest official estimates, which suggest lower output growth in France, Spain and Poland as a result of adverse weather conditions affecting plantings. We now forecast French wheat production to increase only 2.0% y-o-y to 36.0mn tonnes in 2012/13 (compared with 37.3mn previously) as winterkill hit 5-20% of the winter grains area. We have also revised down our projections for Polish wheat output to 9.0mn tonnes, a 3.2% fall compared with 2011/12, as similar cold snaps affected plantings. For Spain, we expect wheat output to decline 13.1% y-o-y to 5.6mn tonnes in 2012/13 as insufficient rains have prevented grains from growing normally.
According to the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), Spain's total dam water reservoirs are only at 62.5 percent of capacity, limiting the quantity of water available for agricultural crops. While in Andalusia dams are at good levels, the Ebro basin, which covers the grain-growing regions of Aragon, Navarra and Catalonia, is reportedly at 59.0 of its water storage capacity. This is likely to limit the country's grain production and therefore limit feed supply for the livestock sector. Pasture land also has been affected by the dry conditions; this reduced pasture availability is forcing farmers to supplement animals' feed in quantities over normal levels.
Recent dynamics in the country's dairy industry are reflected by the strategy of Grupo Leche Pascual, one of Spain's leading dairy companies. The company is pursuing increasing product diversification in order to be less vulnerable to movements in prices of one commodity group (in this case, milk). The company also is seeking to develop sales in emerging markets, especially Asia, where there is large potential for dairy product demand growth.
Business Monitor International's Poland Agribusiness service provides proprietary medium term price forecasts for key commodities, including corn, wheat, rice, sugar, cocoa, coffee, soy and milk; in addition to newly-researched competitive intelligence on leading agribusiness producers, traders and suppliers; in-depth analysis of latest industry developments; and essential industry context on Poland's agribusiness service.
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BMI Industry View
SWOT Analysis
Spain Agriculture SWOT
Spain Business Environment SWOT
Supply Demand Analysis
Spain Dairy Outlook
Table: Spain Milk Production & Consumption, 2011-2016
Table: Spain Butter Production & Consumption, 2011-2016
Table: Spain Cheese Production & Consumption, 2011-2016
Table: Spain Milk Production & Consumption, 2007-2016
Table: Spain Butter Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
Table: Spain Cheese Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
Spain Sugar Outlook
Table: Spain Sugar Production & Consumption, 2011-2016
Table: Spain Sugar Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
Spain Livestock Outlook
Table: Spain Poultry Production & Consumption, 2011-2016
Table: Spain Pork Production & Consumption, 2011-2016
Table: Spain Beef & Veal Production & Consumption, 2011-2016
Table: Spain Poultry Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
Table: Spain Pork Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
Table: Spain Beef & Veal Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
Spain Grains Outlook
Table: Spain Wheat Production & Consumption, 2011-2016
Table: Spain Corn Production & Consumption, 2011-2016
Table: Spain Barley Production & Consumption, 2011-2016
Table: Spain Wheat Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
Table: Spain Corn Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
Table: Spain Barley Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
Commodity Price Analysis
Corn
Rice
Soybean
Wheat
Monthly Softs Update
Cocoa
Coffee
Palm Oil
Sugar
Downstream Analysis
Food
Food
Food Consumption
Table: Spain Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016
Canned Food/Prepared Food
Table: Canned Food Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2016
Confectionery
Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016
Mass Grocery Retail
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Market - Sales by Format (US$bn) - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016
Table: Grocery Retail Sales By Format (%)
Trade
Table: Food & Drink Trade Balance - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016
Country Snapshot: Spain Demographic Data
Section 1: Population
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030
Section 2: Education And Healthcare
Table: Education, 2002-2005
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030
Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power
Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006
Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$)
Table: Average Annual Manufacturing Wages, 2000-2012
Global Food & Drink View
Food & Drink Roundup Q112: Core Views
Table: Core Views
BMI Forecast Modelling
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
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