Canada Oil and Gas Report Q2 2012
Business Monitor International, April 2012, Pages: 85
Business Monitor International's Canada Oil and Gas Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, oil and gas associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Canada's oil and gas industry.
BMI View: Oil sands-based liquids supply and shale gas production form the foundation of Canada’s energy supply outlook. Conventional sources of crude oil and natural gas output are in decline, with little immediate prospect of a reversal in this trend. The overall picture is therefore complex but encouraging, as long-term volumes of oil and gas protect Canada’s position as a key supplier to the US.
The main trends and developments highlighted for Canada’s Oil and Gas sector are:
- There is likely to be a threefold increase in gas power generation over the next decade, according to the Canadian Energy Research Institute. Much of the gas used in power applications is the result of rising energy use at the oil sands facilities. The growing use of gas in power generation projects also points to Canada’s consumption rising from an estimated 86.40bn cubic metres (bcm) in 2012 to 96.96bcm by 2016.
- Canadian gas production is expected to decline over the next two or three years, before unconventional supplies reverse this trend and lead to the stabilisation of supply. BMI is assuming that estimated Canadian gas production, estimated at 155.05bcm in 2012, will drop to 152.27bcm by 2014, before recovering to 155.32bcm by 2016 and 164.08bcm by 2021.
- Industry body the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers (CAPP) continues to forecast significant growth in Canadian crude oil production, driven largely by oil sands. Released in June 2011, its forecasts reaffirm a trend for continued long-term output growth. Total Canadian production (including oil sands but excluding NGLs) is predicted to rise from 2.8mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2010 to 3.5mn b/d by 2015, and further to 4.2mn b/d by 2020.
- BMI estimates Canadian oil supply (crude oil, condensate, NGLs and other liquids) will hit 3.63mn b/d in 2012. We expect production growth of approximately 200,000b/d in 2012-2013, with total volumes set to hit 4.32mn b/d by 2016. We are assuming that oil demand will reach 2.33mn b/d by 2016, resulting in net exports of 2.13mn b/d.
At time of writing, we assume an OPEC basket oil price for 2012 of US$111.47/bbl, falling to US$107.00/bbl in 2013. Global GDP growth in 2012 is forecast at 2.7%, down from 3% in 2011, reflecting slowing growth in China and continued uncertainty with regard to the eurozone debt crisis.
BMI Industry View
SWOT Analysis
Canada Oil and Gas SWOT
Global Energy Market Outlook
Table: Libya Production Update: Main Fields (As Of Jan 9)
Table: Global Oil Consumption, 2009-2016 (000b/d)
Table: Global Oil Production, 2009-2016 (000b/d)
Regional Energy Market Outlook
Canada Energy Market Overview
Table: Canada - Upstream Projects
Industry Forecast Scenario
Table: Canada Oil & Gas - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2009-2016
Table: Canada Oil & Gas - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2016
Oil and Gas Reserves
Oil Supply And Demand
Gas Supply And Demand
LNG
Refining And Oil Products Trade
Revenues/Import Costs
Key Risks to BMI’s Forecast Scenario
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
Oil Refineries
Table: Refineries In Canada
Service Stations
Oil Pipelines
LNG Terminals
Gas Pipelines
Regional and Country Risk/Reward Ratings
Table: Developed States Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings
Table: Developed States Downstream Risk/Reward Ratings
Competitive Landscape
Executive Summary
Table: Key Players - Canadian Oil And Gas Sector
Overview/State Role
Licensing and Regulation
Table: Key Upstream Players
Table: Key Downstream Players
Company Monitor
Suncor
Shell Canada
Encana
Cenovus Energy - Summary
Canadian Natural Resources - Summary
ConocoPhillips - Summary
Chevron - Summary
Devon Energy - Summary
Syncrude - Summary
BP Canada - Summary
Husky Energy - Summary
ExxonMobil - Summary
Statoil - Summary
Total - Summary
Murphy Oil - Summary
Enbridge - Summary
Nexen - Summary
Occidental Petroleum - Summary
TransCanada - Summary
UTS Energy - Summary
Gazprom - Summary
Ultramar - Summary
TAQA - Summary
Apache - Summary
Penn West - Summary
Talisman Energy - Summary
PetroChina - Summary
Korea National Oil Corporation (KNOC) - Summary
North America - Regional Appendix
Table: Oil Consumption (000b/d) 2009-2016
Table: Oil Consumption (000b/d) 2014-2021
Table: Oil Production (000b/d) 2009-2016
Table: Oil Production (000b/d) 2014-2021
Table: Refining Capacity (000b/d) 2009-2016
Table: Refining Capacity (000b/d) 2014-2021
Table: Gas Consumption (bcm) 2009-2016
Table: Gas Consumption (bcm) 2014-2021
Table: Gas Production (bcm) 2009-2016
Table: Gas Production (bcm) 2014-2021
Table: LNG Imports/Exports (bcm) 2009-2016 2014-2021
Methodology And Risks To Forecasts
Glossary Of Terms
Oil And Gas Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
Ratings Overview
Table: BMI’s Oil & Gas Business Environment Ratings - Structure
Indicators
Table: BMI’s Oil & Gas Upstream Ratings - Methodology
Table: BMI’s Oil & Gas Business Environment Downstream Ratings - Methodology
BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Energy Industry
Cross checks
Sources
- Suncor
- Shell Canada
- Encana
- Cenovus Energy
- Canadian Natural Resources
- ConocoPhillips
- Chevron
- Devon Energy
- Syncrude
- BP Canada
- Husky Energy ,ExxonMobil
- Statoil
- Total
- Murphy Oil
- Enbridge
- Nexen
- Occidental Petroleum
- TransCanada
- UTS Energy
- Gazprom
- Ultramar
- TAQA
- Apache
- Penn West
- Talisman Energy
- PetroChina
- Korea National Oil Corporation (KNOC)
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