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Czech Republic Metals Report Q2 2012
Business Monitor International, April 2012, Pages: 38
Business Monitor International's Czech Republic Metals Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, metals associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Czech Republic's metals industry.
The Czech steel industry is likely to enter recession in 2012 as exports come under pressure amid a slump in European demand, according to BMI’s latest Czech Republic Metals Report. In 2011 Czech crude steel output grew 7.8% y-o-y to 5.58mn tonnes, which followed a year when production was up 12.7% to 5.18mn tonnes. Czech monthly output began declining after a peak of 489,000 tonnes in March, falling to 368,000 tonnes in November before staging a modest return to growth in the subsequent two months. The decline in production coincided with a consistent fall in product prices that squeezed margins, despite falling raw material costs. This prompted ArcelorMittal to announce in December 2011 that it was seeking to reduce its Czech workforce by around 10%, implying production cut backs. However, it stopped short of idling facilities, as it plans to do in neighbouring Poland.
Given the downturn in the Czech Republic’s main export market, Germany, and plans by ArcelorMittal to further scale back production, BMI expects a contraction in the steel industry in 2012. Crude steel is forecast to fall by around 10%, a slight revision from the previous forecast of an 11% drop. Therefore crude output will total around 5mn tonnes in 2012. Meanwhile, hot-rolled output will fall 10% to 4.4mn tonnes in 2012, a slight downward revision from the previously forecast 4.46mn tonnes. A contraction will reverse many of the gains made over the past two years and ensures that the Czech Republic will struggle to return to the kind of production volumes seen before the 2008 crisis.
Steel exports are likely to decline by around 10% to 4.46mn tonnes in 2012 with the value of exports likely to decline. Domestic consumption of finished steel products is also set to decline, by 11% to 5.21mn tonnes. Both consumption and export figures are not, at this stage, likely to fall back to the 2009 low. Nevertheless, we have put back the full recovery to pre-2008 levels to 2016 with a long period of slow recovery as the problems in external markets are unlikely to abate significantly. The Czech steel industry’s dependence on longs production, which represents two-thirds of Czech output, means it will mirror the flatlining European construction industry.
Czech Republic Metals Industry SWOT
Czech Republic Political SWOT
Czech Republic Economic SWOT
Czech Republic Business Environment SWOT
Table: BMI's Steel Forecasts
Table: Steel Products And Inputs - Price Data
Europe Metals Overview
Table: Czech Republic Steel Industry, 2009-2016 (’000 tonnes, unless otherwise stated)
Table: Czech Republic - Long-Term Macroeconomic Forecasts, 2014-2021
Evraz Vítkovice Steel
Trinecké Zelezárny-Moravia Steel
Country Snapshot: Czech Republic Demographic Data
Section 1: Population
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030
Section 2: Education And Healthcare
Table: Education, 2002-2005
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030
Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power
Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006
Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$)
Table: Average Annual Wages, 2000-2012
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
- ArcelorMittal Ostrava
- Evraz Vítkovice Steel
- Trinecké Zelezárny-Moravia Steel
- ZDB Group
- Zeleziarne Podbrezová
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