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Ecuador Oil And Gas Report Q2 2012
Description:
Business Monitor International's Ecuador Oil and Gas Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, oil and gas associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Ecuador's oil and gas industry.
BMI View: In spite of the volatile licensing and regulatory environment, Ecuador continues to attract some international investment and is pumping its own cash into field development in order to slow a decline in output and ward off falling oil exports. There is, however, limited scope for sustained volume growth.
The main trends and developments we highlight for the Ecuador’s Oil and Gas sector are:
- Ecuador's state-run oil company Petroecuador has signed contracts worth US$1.7bn in order to expand oil production at two oil fields, according to President Rafael Correa. The company has agreed 15-year oil service contracts with Schlumberger for the Shushufindi field and reached a deal with a consortium headed by Tecpetrol for the El Libertador field. Schlumberger is likely to spend up to US$1.3bn in the Shushufindi field. Meanwhile, Tecpetrol, as part of a consortium comprising Sertecpet, Canacol and Schlumberger, is expected to invest US$385mn in the Libertador field. Petroecuador is to remain in charge of the operations at the fields, Correa added.
- Petroecuador has approved a US$3.75bn budget for 2012, including US$1.82bn for investment and US$1.93bn to cover operational costs. Of the total investment, the company plans to channel US$530mn into exploration and production (E&P) and US$337mn into refining. The investment will be used to conduct seismic tests, to drill 98 wells in Amazon District and to develop seismic programmes and gas field exploratory wells in the Gulf of Guayaquil.
- Ecuador expects private oil companies to boost investment by about 58% to US$694mn in 2012, Dow Jones said in a February 2012 report citing Non-Renewable Natural Resources Minister Wilson Pastor. Pastor also said the South American nation plans to open concessions in April 2012 for 21 oil blocks in the south-eastern part of the country, Dow reported.
- The oil production outlook remains uncertain, in spite of new efforts to boost investment and revive older fields. We are assuming a rise in output during 2012 to 515,000 barrels per day (b/d), before a steady decline again sets in, taking volumes to 480,000b/d by 2016 and less than 420,000b/d by 2021. Oil consumption of an estimated 211,000b/d in 2011 could reach 257,000b/d by 2016 and rise to more than 300,000b/d by 2021.
- Estimated gas output was just 0.34bn cubic metres (bcm) in 2011, and although production should rise, our forecasts show volumes remaining below 1bcm. All output is expected to be used to meet domestic demand. Over the long-term there is an option to develop a trans-Andean gas trade that would see gas from Venezuela and potentially Colombia flow into Ecuador, although we believe there is little likelihood of this ambitious plan becoming a reality.
- By 2016, Ecuador’s oil exports are set to yield some US$7.6bn, falling towards US$3.9bn by 2021 as export volumes slip from an estimated 295,000b/d in 2012 to just 114,000b/d. At the time of writing we assume an OPEC basket oil price for 2012 of US$99.38/bbl, falling to US$97.23/bbl in 2013. Global GDP in 2012 is forecast at 3.2%, up from an assumed 3.1% in 2011, reflecting slower growth in China and uncertainty with regard to the eurozone debt situation. For 2013, growth is estimated at 3.7%.
BMI View: In spite of the volatile licensing and regulatory environment, Ecuador continues to attract some international investment and is pumping its own cash into field development in order to slow a decline in output and ward off falling oil exports. There is, however, limited scope for sustained volume growth.
The main trends and developments we highlight for the Ecuador’s Oil and Gas sector are:
- Ecuador's state-run oil company Petroecuador has signed contracts worth US$1.7bn in order to expand oil production at two oil fields, according to President Rafael Correa. The company has agreed 15-year oil service contracts with Schlumberger for the Shushufindi field and reached a deal with a consortium headed by Tecpetrol for the El Libertador field. Schlumberger is likely to spend up to US$1.3bn in the Shushufindi field. Meanwhile, Tecpetrol, as part of a consortium comprising Sertecpet, Canacol and Schlumberger, is expected to invest US$385mn in the Libertador field. Petroecuador is to remain in charge of the operations at the fields, Correa added.
- Petroecuador has approved a US$3.75bn budget for 2012, including US$1.82bn for investment and US$1.93bn to cover operational costs. Of the total investment, the company plans to channel US$530mn into exploration and production (E&P) and US$337mn into refining. The investment will be used to conduct seismic tests, to drill 98 wells in Amazon District and to develop seismic programmes and gas field exploratory wells in the Gulf of Guayaquil.
- Ecuador expects private oil companies to boost investment by about 58% to US$694mn in 2012, Dow Jones said in a February 2012 report citing Non-Renewable Natural Resources Minister Wilson Pastor. Pastor also said the South American nation plans to open concessions in April 2012 for 21 oil blocks in the south-eastern part of the country, Dow reported.
- The oil production outlook remains uncertain, in spite of new efforts to boost investment and revive older fields. We are assuming a rise in output during 2012 to 515,000 barrels per day (b/d), before a steady decline again sets in, taking volumes to 480,000b/d by 2016 and less than 420,000b/d by 2021. Oil consumption of an estimated 211,000b/d in 2011 could reach 257,000b/d by 2016 and rise to more than 300,000b/d by 2021.
- Estimated gas output was just 0.34bn cubic metres (bcm) in 2011, and although production should rise, our forecasts show volumes remaining below 1bcm. All output is expected to be used to meet domestic demand. Over the long-term there is an option to develop a trans-Andean gas trade that would see gas from Venezuela and potentially Colombia flow into Ecuador, although we believe there is little likelihood of this ambitious plan becoming a reality.
- By 2016, Ecuador’s oil exports are set to yield some US$7.6bn, falling towards US$3.9bn by 2021 as export volumes slip from an estimated 295,000b/d in 2012 to just 114,000b/d. At the time of writing we assume an OPEC basket oil price for 2012 of US$99.38/bbl, falling to US$97.23/bbl in 2013. Global GDP in 2012 is forecast at 3.2%, up from an assumed 3.1% in 2011, reflecting slower growth in China and uncertainty with regard to the eurozone debt situation. For 2013, growth is estimated at 3.7%.
Contents:
"BMI Industry View
Swot Analysis
Ecuador Oil and Gas SWOT
Global Energy Market Outlook
Table: Libya Production Update: Main Fields (As Of Jan 9)
Table: Global Oil Consumption, 2009-2016 (000b/d)
Table: Global Oil Production, 2009-2016 (000b/d)
Regional Energy Market Outlook
Ecuador Energy Market Overview
Ecuador - Upstream Projects Database
Industry Forecast Scenario
Table: Ecuador Oil & Gas - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016
Table: Ecuador Oil & Gas- Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021
Oil And Gas Reserves
Oil Supply And Demand
Gas Supply And Demand
Refining And Oil Products Trade
Revenues/Import Costs
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
Oil Refineries
Table: Refineries In Ecuador
Service Stations
Oil Pipelines
Oil Storage
Regional and Country Risk/Reward Ratings
Table: Latin America Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings
Table: Latin America Downstream Risk/Reward Ratings
Competitive Landscape
Table: Key Domestic And Foreign Companies
Overview/State Role
Licensing And Regulation
Government Policy
International Arbitration
International Energy Relations
Table: Key Upstream Players
Table: Key Downstream Players
Company Monitor
Petroecuador
Eni Ecuador
Repsol YPF
Petroamazonas - Summary
Petróleos de Venezuela (PdVSA) - Summary
ENAP - Summary
Andes Petroleum - Summary
Oleoducto de Crudos Pesados (OCP) - Summary
Inpex - Summary
Sinopec - Summary
Ivanhoe Energy - Summary
Others - Summary
Latin America - Regional Appendix
Table: Oil Consumption (000b/d), 2009-2016
Table: Long-term Oil Consumption (000b/d), 2014-2021
Table: Oil Production (000b/d), 2009-2016
Table: Long-term Oil Production (000b/d), 2014-2021
Table: Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d), 2009-2016
Table: Gas Consumption (bcm), 2009-2016
Table: Long-Term Gas Consumption (bcm) 2014-2021
Table: Gas Production (bcm), 2009-2016
Table: Long-Term Gas Production (bcm), 2014-2021
Table: LNG Exports (bcm), 2009-2016
Methodology And Risks To Forecasts
Glossary Of Terms
Table: Glossary Of Terms
Oil And Gas Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
Ratings Overview
Table: BMI’s Oil & Gas Business Environment Ratings - Structure
Indicators
Table: BMI’s Oil & Gas Upstream Ratings - Methodology
Table: BMI’s Oil & Gas Business Environment Downstream Ratings - Methodology
BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Energy Industry
Cross checks
Sources
Swot Analysis
Ecuador Oil and Gas SWOT
Global Energy Market Outlook
Table: Libya Production Update: Main Fields (As Of Jan 9)
Table: Global Oil Consumption, 2009-2016 (000b/d)
Table: Global Oil Production, 2009-2016 (000b/d)
Regional Energy Market Outlook
Ecuador Energy Market Overview
Ecuador - Upstream Projects Database
Industry Forecast Scenario
Table: Ecuador Oil & Gas - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016
Table: Ecuador Oil & Gas- Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021
Oil And Gas Reserves
Oil Supply And Demand
Gas Supply And Demand
Refining And Oil Products Trade
Revenues/Import Costs
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
Oil Refineries
Table: Refineries In Ecuador
Service Stations
Oil Pipelines
Oil Storage
Regional and Country Risk/Reward Ratings
Table: Latin America Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings
Table: Latin America Downstream Risk/Reward Ratings
Competitive Landscape
Table: Key Domestic And Foreign Companies
Overview/State Role
Licensing And Regulation
Government Policy
International Arbitration
International Energy Relations
Table: Key Upstream Players
Table: Key Downstream Players
Company Monitor
Petroecuador
Eni Ecuador
Repsol YPF
Petroamazonas - Summary
Petróleos de Venezuela (PdVSA) - Summary
ENAP - Summary
Andes Petroleum - Summary
Oleoducto de Crudos Pesados (OCP) - Summary
Inpex - Summary
Sinopec - Summary
Ivanhoe Energy - Summary
Others - Summary
Latin America - Regional Appendix
Table: Oil Consumption (000b/d), 2009-2016
Table: Long-term Oil Consumption (000b/d), 2014-2021
Table: Oil Production (000b/d), 2009-2016
Table: Long-term Oil Production (000b/d), 2014-2021
Table: Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d), 2009-2016
Table: Gas Consumption (bcm), 2009-2016
Table: Long-Term Gas Consumption (bcm) 2014-2021
Table: Gas Production (bcm), 2009-2016
Table: Long-Term Gas Production (bcm), 2014-2021
Table: LNG Exports (bcm), 2009-2016
Methodology And Risks To Forecasts
Glossary Of Terms
Table: Glossary Of Terms
Oil And Gas Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
Ratings Overview
Table: BMI’s Oil & Gas Business Environment Ratings - Structure
Indicators
Table: BMI’s Oil & Gas Upstream Ratings - Methodology
Table: BMI’s Oil & Gas Business Environment Downstream Ratings - Methodology
BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Energy Industry
Cross checks
Sources
Companies Mentioned
- Petroecuador
- Eni Ecuador
- Repsol YPF
- Petroamazonas
- Petróleos de Venezuela (PdVSA)
- ENAP
- Andes Petroleum
- Oleoducto de Crudos Pesados (OCP)
- Inpex
- Sinopec
- Ivanhoe Energy
- Eni Ecuador
- Repsol YPF
- Petroamazonas
- Petróleos de Venezuela (PdVSA)
- ENAP
- Andes Petroleum
- Oleoducto de Crudos Pesados (OCP)
- Inpex
- Sinopec
- Ivanhoe Energy
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