Brazil Defence and Security Report Q3 2012

Business Monitor International's Brazil Defence and Security Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, defence and security associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Brazil's defence and security industry.

While defence spending in much of the western world may be in the doldrums, Brazil continues to pour investment into its armed forces, albeit at a slower pace than perhaps previously forecast to take account of current economic circumstances.

By far the biggest defence acquisition programme in Brazil is the air force's plans to initially purchase 36 airframes to fulfil the country's F-X Multi-Role Combat Aircraft (MRCA) requirement. However, it is important to note that the size of this acquisition could significantly increase in the future. With India having selected the Dassault Rafale as the preferred bidder for its own MRCA competition earlier this year, the F-X initiative is significant for one overriding reason: Brazil's purchase will probably represent the last major MRCA acquisition until the fifth-generation Lockheed Martin F-35 Lightening- II Joint Strike Fighter combat aircraft family becomes available towards the end of this decade.

All of the aircraft participating in Brazil's F-X competition are so-called '4.5 generation' aircraft, including designs from the United States, Sweden, France and collaborative efforts encompassing a number of European countries. The favourite aircraft to fulfil the requirement is still considered to be the French Dassault Rafale, although while this aircraft is thought to be favoured by the Brazilian government, the Brazilian air force is thought to favour Sweden's Saab JAS-39 Gripen. A decision on which aircraft will be selected to fulfil the F-X requirement is expected by the middle of this year.

While the country is purchasing new combat aircraft its main aircraft supplier, Embraer, is keen to enhance its own standing as an exporter of military airframes. Its ambitions in this regard were dealt a blow in February when the firm lost out on a bid to supply light attack single-turboprop aircraft to the United States Air Force, which the service was procuring on behalf of the Afghan air force. The acquisition was cancelled after complaints about the selection process. A new competition is expected soon in which Embraer is expected to participate once again.

Closer to home, the company continues to be an active participant not only in the purchase of new combat aircraft, but also in a number of defence and security programmes around the country. To this end, it is involved in several border surveillance initiatives, and is offering a solution in conjunction with a Brazilian telecommunications company regarding the Brazilian government's plans to acquire a new constellation of military satellites.

The defence procurements currently ongoing in Brazil reflect the country's aspirations to develop its standing as a major regional and global actor. At the diplomatic level, the government has been making overtures to India, and also to countries in Africa and Europe vis-à-vis deepening its strategic relationships. As much as Brazil is seen as one of the world's fastest-growing economies, the country is striking an increasing confident tone as regards its strategic posture.

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Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
Brazil Security SWOT
Brazil Defence Industry SWOT
Brazil Political SWOT
Brazil Economic SWOT
Brazil Business Environment SWOT
Global Political Outlook
Major Risks Looming In 2012-2013
Global Flashpoints: Eurozone, Iran, Syria, Afghanistan, Korean Peninsula
Table: Election Timetable, Q212-Q113
Wild Cards To Watch
Latin America Security Overview
The Strategic Outlook For The 2010s
Latin America In A Global Context
Challenges And Threats To Security
The Role Of Outside Powers
Key Factors To Consider In The 2010s
Security Risk Analysis
BMI's Regional Security Ratings
Table: Latin America Security Ratings
Table: Latin America State Vulnerability To Terrorism Ratings
Brazil's Security Risk Ratings
Political Overview
Long-Term Political Outlook
Domestic Security Overview
Internal Security Situation
Amazon Basin
Gun Crime And Violence
Corruption
External Security Situation
Table: Regional Insurgent Groups
Brazil-Colombia
Brazil-Paraguay
Armed Forces And Government Spending
Armed Forces
International Deployments
Table: Foreign Deployments
Weapons Of Mass Destruction
Market Overview
Arms Trade Overview
Industry Trends And Developments
Procurement Trends And Developments
Industry Forecast Scenario
Armed Forces
Table: Brazil's Armed Forces, 2000-2009 ('000 personnel, unless otherwise stated)
Table: Brazil's Manpower Available For Military Service, 2009-2016 (aged 16-49, unless otherwise stated)
Defence Expenditure
Table: Brazil's Defence Expenditure, 2009-2016
Table: Brazil's Defence Expenditure – Changing % Of GDP, 2009-2016 (US$mn)
Defence Exports
Table: Brazil's Defence Exports, 2009-2016 (US$mn)
Table: Brazil's Defence Imports, 2009-2016 (US$mn)
Table: Brazil's Defence Trade Balance, 2009-2016 (US$mn)
Macroeconomic Outlook
Company Profiles
AVIBRAS Indústria Aerospacial SA
Embraer
BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Defence Industry
Sources

- AVIBRAS Indústria Aerospacial SA
- Embraer