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China Retail Report Q3 2012
Business Monitor International, May 2012, Pages: 79
Business Monitor International's China Retail Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, retail associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on China's retail industry.
The Q312 BMI China Retail Report forecasts that the country's total retail sales will increase by 29% in local currency terms by the end of the forecast period, growing from an expected CNY20.24trn (US$2.96trn) in 2012 to a projected CNY26.04trn (US$3.81trn) in 2016. Retail sales in China doubled between 2003 and 2008, when they broke through the CNY10trn (US$1.6trn) barrier for the first time. Strong underlying economic trends, population growth and the increasing wealth of individuals are key factors behind retail market expansion. Regulatory reform following China's accession to the WTO in December 2001 has allowed foreign retailers to make significant inroads into the market, contributing to forecast average annual retail sales growth of 8.6% in local currency terms from 2012 to 2016.
China's nominal GDP is forecast to be US$7.94trn in 2012. GDP growth of 7.7% is forecast for the year, with average annual growth of 6.6% predicted by BMI through to 2016. With the population estimated to increase from 1.35bn in 2012 to 1.37bn by 2016, GDP per capita is forecast to grow by 41% to reach US$8,266 in 2016. The growth in the overall retail market will be driven in large part by a growing urban population with high disposable incomes and an interest in aspirational purchasing. According to socioeconomic forecaster Global Demographics, more than 30% of all urban households in China had an annual income above CNY40,000 (US$5,848) in 2007. The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) estimates that urban retail sales accounted for nearly 68% of total retail sales in 2009, down slightly on 2008.
Retail sectors that are likely to achieve substantial growth over the forecast period include over-thecounter (OTC) pharmaceuticals, with BMI forecasting sales of US$19.58bn in 2012, predicted to rise by nearly 52% by 2016 to US$29.66bn. Automotive sales, forecast at 19.81mn units in 2012, are predicted to grow by almost 66% by 2016, reaching 32.83mn units. In 2006, China overtook Japan as the world's second-largest automotive market behind the US, following this up in 2007 with a record year in both sales and production terms.
Sales of consumer electronic products are predicted to increase by 44%, from US$201.03bn in 2012 to US$289.74bn by 2016, with double-digit growth predicted for key products such as notebook computers, mobile handsets and video devices. A sizeable multinational retail presence following the lifting of foreign direct investment (FDI) restrictions in 2001 has ensured the early adoption of modern retail best practices in China. Organised retail – Western-style chain outlets, department stores, supermarkets, etc – already accounts for an estimated 23% of the total retail market, far higher than the 5% in India.
Chinese retailers have been expanding into secondary and tertiary towns and cities. By June 2011, GOME Electrical Appliances Holding, China's leading retailer of household appliances and consumer electronic products, had 362 outlets in second-tier markets, up from 304 outlets in December 2010. In its 2010 annual report, the company said it believed that first-tier markets were its fundamental basis, but that ‘second-tier markets will be the focus of future growth'.
Partnerships between local players and multinationals are allowing for rapid development of the retail market. In November 2007, Beijing Hualian Group signed a joint venture agreement with British company Costa Coffee (part of the Whitbread Group) to open 300 Costa stores in Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei, north-east China and other regions in the next few years. The company celebrated the opening of its 100th store in China in July 2011.
Retail sales for the BMI grouping of Asian countries in 2012 are a forecast US$3.77trn. China and India are predicted to account for nearly 92% of regional retail sales in 2012, and by 2016 their share of the regional market is expected to be more than 92%. Growth in regional retail sales for 2012-2016 is forecast by BMI at 31.1%, an annual average 8.9%. India should experience the most rapid rate of growth, followed by China. China's forecast 2012 market share of 78.7% is expected to decline slightly to 77.2% by 2016.
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China Retail Business Environment SWOT
China Political SWOT
China Economic SWOT
China Business Environment SWOT
Industry Forecast Scenario
Retail Growth Outlook
Table: China's Retail Sales Indicators, 2010-2016
Table: Forecast Retail Sales Breakdown By Key Segment, 2012f
Table: China – Economic Activity, 2011-2016
Regional Retail Outlook
Asia Pacific Retail Outlook
Table: Asia Pacific Retail Sales, 2009-2016 (US$bn)
Table: Asia Pacific Retail Sales By % Share, 2009-2016
Table: Asia Pacific Food Consumption, 2009-2016 (US$bn)
Table: Asia Pacific Macroeconomic Outlook, 2009-2016
Table: Asia Pacific Retail Risk/Reward Ratings
China's Retail Risk/Reward Rating
Mass Grocery Retail
China Mass Grocery Retail Industry SWOT
Table: Structure of China's Mass Grocery Retail Market by Estimated Number of Outlets, 2002-2010
Table: Structure of China's Mass Grocery Retail Market - Sales by Format, 2002-2010 (US$bn)
Table: Structure of China's Mass Grocery Retail Market - Sales by Format, 2002-2010 (CNYbn)
Table: Annual Average Store Sales by Format, 2010
Industry Forecast Scenario
Table: China's Mass Grocery Retail (MGR) Indicators, 2009-2016
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format, 2012f And 2021f
China Consumer Electronics Market SWOT
Table: Computers – Demand, 2009-2016
Table: AV – Demand, 2009-2016
Table: Handsets – Demand, 2009-2016
Industry Forecast Scenario
Table: Consumer Electronics Overview, 2009-2016 (US$mn)
China Autos Industry SWOT
Table: China Autos Production And Sales, 2009-2016 (mn completely built units)
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
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