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United Arab Emirates Telecommunications Report Q2 2012
Description:
Business Monitor International's United Arab Emirates Telecommunications Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, telecommunication associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on United Arab Emirates's telecommunications industry.
BMI’s Q212 update to the UAE’s telecommunications market report incorporates market data from the Telecommunications Regulatory Authority (TRA) and telecoms providers Etisalat and Emirates Integrated Telecommunication Company (du) relating to the end of December 2011. It contains an analysis of the mobile, fixed-line and broadband markets, and recent regulatory developments. It also contains our growth estimates for the key sectors during our forecast period, through to 2016. The TRA’s intention to drive competition in the fixed-line sector received a major boost in March 2012 with the introduction of the carrier pre-selection service (CPS). The service allows users to choose their service provider regardless of the main access line provider. BMI sees this as major step towards full implementation of fixed network infrastructure sharing in the UAE, which has been delayed several times before. At the time of writing, local media suggested the process might eventually kick-off by mid-2012.
These developments were reported after updates to our fixed-line forecast and historical data analysis. We will therefore factor in their implications for future growth in subsequent updates to our UAE telecoms market report. Our current forecast, which was upgraded this quarter following better than expected subscriber growth in Q411, envisages fixed-line subscriptions to reach 1.9mn by 2016, a penetration rate of 22.4%. The mobile sector also recorded strong growth in 2011 after market leader Etisalat broke a cycle of four consecutive quarterly subscriber losses, with net additions of 187,000 subscribers in Q411. Secondranked du continued its strong performance in Q411, with net additions of 278,000 subscribers. This brought the UAE’s total mobile subscriber base to 11.727mn at the end of December 2011, up by 4.1% qo- q from 11.262mn in the previous quarter and by 7.1% y-o-y from 10.926mn subscribers a year earlier.
Based on the revision to our UAE population data in our previous report, mobile penetration was 148.6% at the end of 2011 compared to 145.5% at the end of 2010. We expect the mobile market to maintain a steady growth over the next five years, driven by population growth as opposed to network expansion to underserved areas. As subscriber growth is expected to be slow because of market saturation, we see mobile operators Etisalat and du increasing their focus on high-value services to drive revenue growth. We are forecasting the UAE’s mobile subscriber base to reach 12.803mn at the end of 2016, a penetration rate of 150.4%. A key upside risk to our forecast is likelihood of market liberalisation in 2015 as alluded to by the telecoms regulator. How it is difficult to factor this into our long-term forecast as there are few details about the form it will take.
The UAE’s broadband market continued to grow strongly in 2011, a development that justifies the huge investments into next generation fixed and mobile networks by Etisalat and du during the last three years. The country’s broadband penetration was 11% at the end of 2011 and we forecast it to reach 13.8% by 2016.
Contents:
Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
UAE Mobile SWOT
UAE Wireline SWOT
UAE Political SWOT
UAE Economic SWOT
UAE Business Environment SWOT
Risk/Rewards Ratings
Middle East And North Africa
Table: MENA Q212 Risk/Reward Ratings
UAE
Industry Forecast Scenario
Mobile
Table: Telecoms Sector – Mobile – Historical Data & Forecasts
ARPU
Table: Monthly Blended ARPU
Fixed Line
Table: Telecoms Sector – Fixed Line – Historical Data & Forecasts
Internet
Table: Telecoms Sector – Internet – Historical Data & Forecasts
Market Data Analysis
Mobile
Table: UAE – Mobile Subscribers, Q411
Table: UAE – Mobile Net Additions Market, Q410-Q411 (’000)
Subscriber Divisions And ARPU
3G
Mobile Contract Wins
Table: Mobile Contract Wins
Mobile Operator Data
Table: UAE Mobile Market Overview
Table: Etisalat
Table: du
Mobile Content
Regional Outlook
Country Outlook
Value-Added Services Timeline
Table: Selected VAS Services
Fixed Line
VoIP
Internet
Broadband
FTTH
Market Restrictions
Wireline Contract Wins
Table: Wireline Contract Wins
Regulatory Environment And Industry Developments
Table: Regulatory Bodies And Their Responsibilities
Legislation And Market Liberalisation
Carrier Pre-Selection
Regulation
New Wireless Agency
Licensing And Spectrum
Regulatory Developments
Competitive Landscape
Key Players
Table: Key Players – UAE Telecoms Sector
Table: UAE Financial Indicators (US$mn)
Vendor Profile
Ericsson Sees H211 Resurgence In Middle East
Ericsson Global Quarterly Net Sales By Division (SEKmn)
Selected Operators Profiles
Emirates Telecommunications Corporation (Etisalat)
Emirates Integrated Telecommunication Company (du)
Regional Telecommunications Penetration Overview
Fixed Line
Table: Regional Fixed-Line Penetration Overview
Mobile
Table: Regional Mobile Penetration Overview
Broadband
Table: Regional Broadband Penetration Overview
Country Snapshot: UAE Demographic Data
Section 1: Population
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030
Section 2: Education And Healthcare
Table: Education, 2002-2005
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030
Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power
Table: Employment Indicators, 2000-2004
Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$)
Glossary Of Terms
Table: Glossary Of Terms
BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Table: Key Indicators For Telecommunications Industry Forecasts
Telecoms Business Environment Ratings
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
Table: Ratings Indicators
Weighting
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
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