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Mexico Oil and Gas Report Q2 2012
Business Monitor International, May 2012, Pages: 75
Poland Oil and Gas Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, oil and gas associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Poland's oil and gas industry.
- Benchmark BMI’s Independent 10-year Oil & Gas Industry Forecast for Mexico to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Mexico oil and gas market.
- Target Business Opportunities & Risks in the Mexico Oil & Gas Sector through reviews - and major deals, projects and investments in Mexico.
- Exploit The Latest Competitive Mexico Oil & Gas Intelligence & Company SWOTS on your competitors and peers through company rankings by sales, market share and ownership structure - includes multi-national and national companies in Mexico.
BMI expect Mexico to slow the rate of production decline that has plagued its vital oil sector over the short term, but that the downward trend will persist without new discoveries or further sector reform – potentially seeing the country turn into a net oil importer by the end of the decade. The Calderon administration has had some success pushing through liberalisation measures but has not gone far enough. With the favoured candidate in the upcoming 2012 elections, Enrique Peña Nieto, advocating further reforms, the elections could prove a crucial turning point for the sector.
- BMI forecasts that oil and liquids production will fall slightly from 2.94mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2011 to 2.91mn b/d 2012. We had predicted a small increase in production in recent quarters, but H211 output has disappointed. Oil and liquids will continue to decline from 2012, falling to about 2.65mn b/d in 2016, a fall of about 10% from 2011. Oil consumption over the same period is expected to rise at a moderate rate, reaching 2.38mn b/d by 2016, implying net exports of just under 300,000b/d.
- Gas output is forecast to remain essentially flat over the coming years. Gas production is forecast to expand from 46.80bn cubic metres (bcm) in 2011 to 49.41bcm in 2016. This will do little to reduce import needs, however, as consumption is forecast to rise rapidly from 61.29bcm in 2010 to 76.62bcm in 2016, implying an import requirement of nearly 30.00bcm by 2016, about double the 2011 import requirement.
- The long-term forecast for Mexico’s oil sector is dire. Oil production is seen continuing its downward spiral, falling to under 2.50mn b/d in 2018 before reaching 2.23mn b/d in 2021. Meanwhile, a healthy economic growth outlook is expected to see consumption rise by between 1-2% per year. That trend sees consumption exceed production for the first time in 2019, with an implied net import requirement of nearly 300,000b/d by 2021.
- This would mark a dramatic turnaround for the country considering that exports peaked at 1.80mn b/d in 2003 and the country was exporting more than 1.00mn b/d as recently as 2007. There is still plenty of time for Mexico to alter this long-term trend, but without more urgency in oil sector reform and new exploration efforts aimed at tapping deepwater Gulf of Mexico reserves the country faces the loss of crucial oil export revenues.
- Unless the government introduces a radical shift in energy policy, we expect state-owned Petróleos Mexicanos (Pemex) to retain full responsibility for oil production, with limited international oil company (IOC) involvement.
- Mexico holds seventh place, behind Venezuela, in BMI’s Risk/Reward Ratings (BERs), which combine upstream and downstream scores. Despite being one of the region’s largest oil producers, the country now sits in ninth place in BMI’s updated upstream ratings. It lags well behind Bolivia and Ecuador, thus making it unlikely to move further up the league table over the short term. Although the absolute resource base may be large, the output growth outlook is poor, reserves-to-production ratios (RPR) are low, state ownership of oil assets is absolute and country risk is relatively high. Mexico ranks fourth in BMI’s downstream ratings, reflecting its high levels of oil and gas consumption, refining capacity and moderate country risk, plus low levels of projected oil and gas demand growth. Colombia is just one point behind Mexico and could mount a near-term challenge.
Mexico’s dependence on energy prices leads to high volatility in the country’s export revenues. Our anticipation of slower growth in China, a faltering recovery in the US and further uncertainty with regard to the eurozone debt crisis, clearly pose a threat to global demand. As a result, we assume OPEC basket oil prices to fall from US$107.52 per barrel (bbl) in 2011 to US$99.38/bbl in 2012, thus creating downside risk for the Mexican macroeconomic outlook.
BMI Industry View
Mexico Oil and Gas SWOT
Global Energy Market Outlook
Libya Production Update: Main Fields (As Of Jan 9)
Global Oil Consumption, 000’s B/d, 2009-2016
Global Oil Production, 2009-2016
Regional Energy Market Outlook
Mexico Energy Market Overview
Table: Upstream Projects Database
Industry Forecast Scenario
Oil And Gas Reserves
Table: Industry Summary Data, 2009-2016
Table: Industry Summary Forecasts, 2014-2021
Oil Supply And Demand
Gas Supply And Demand
Refining And Oil Products Trade
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
Table: Refineries In Mexico
Oil Storage Facilities
Table: LNG Import Terminals In Mexico
Regional and Country Risk/Reward Ratings
Latin America Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings
Mexico Upstream Rating – Overview
Mexico Upstream Rating – Rewards
Mexico Upstream Rating – Risks
Mexico Downstream Rating – Overview
Mexico Downstream Rating – Rewards
Mexico Downstream Rating – Risks
Table: Key Energy Player
Licensing and Regulation
International Energy Relations
Table: Upstream Player
Table: Downstream Player
Petróleos Mexicanos (Pemex)
Repsol YPF Mexico
Shell – Summary
Chevron – Summary
Petróleo Brasileiro – Summary
Total – Summary
Sinopec – Summary
Others – Summary
Table: Oil Consumption (000b/d), 2009-2016
Table: Long-term Oil Consumption (000b/d), 2014-2021
Table: Oil Production (000b/d), 2009-2016
Table: Long-term Oil Production (000b/d), 2014-2021
Table: Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d), 2009-2016
Table: Gas Consumption (bcm), 2009-2016
Table: Long-Term Gas Consumption (bcm) 2014-2021
Table: Gas Production (bcm), 2009-2016
Table: Long-Term Gas Production (bcm), 2014-2021
Table: LNG Exports (bcm), 2009-2016
Methodology And Risks To Forecasts
Glossary Of Terms
Table: Glossary Of Terms
Oil And Gas Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
Table: BMI’s Oil & Gas Business Environment Ratings – Structure
Table: BMI’s Oil & Gas Upstream Ratings – Methodology
Table: BMI’s Oil & Gas Business Environment Downstream Ratings – Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
- Petróleos Mexicanos (Pemex)
- Repsol YPF Mexico
- Petróleo Brasileiro
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