Japan Metals Report Q2 2012
Business Monitor International, May 2012, Pages: 58
Japan Metals Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, metals associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Poland's metals industry.
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The earthquake in Japan in March 2011 will have a significant bearing on the country's metals industry for years to come. In the short term, the disruption halted production at several copper and aluminium refineries. It is also set to hurt demand as the economy has now slipped back into recession. However, we expect demand and supply of metals to pick up as reconstruction efforts continue. Steel and aluminium are the two sectors most likely to benefit as much of Japan's infrastructure around the epicentre of the earthquake has been damaged.
Over the long term we expect production and consumption trends to fall back to low single figures, in line with growth forecasts for the Japanese economy as a whole. Japan remains one of the largest producers and consumers of these metals, but faces a declining share of world output and demand as China and, to a lesser extent, India, rapidly increase production and consumption in most metals. We expect steel production to rebound on the back of increased demand as construction efforts get under way. However, producer margins are likely to remain tight as iron ore and coal prices continue to rise, only some of which can be passed onto the consumer. We expect a continuation of the long-term decline in primary aluminium production, with output falling by an annual average of 2.3% a year to 4.33kt ('000 tonnes) in 2016, from 4.70kt in 2010.
We also expect secondary aluminium, which accounts for the vast majority of the country's refined aluminium output, to grow at an average rate of 3.1%, reaching 1.19mn tonnes (mnt) by 2016, from 1.01mnt in 2010. Consumption growth will be more modest, growing by an average annual rate of 0.6% and reaching 2.17mnt in 2016, up from 2.02mnt in 2010. We expect refined copper production to decline by 14.1% in 2011, based on figures for the first nine months of the year. We have maintained our long-term forecasts, as we expect demand and supply of refined copper to pick up as reconstruction efforts get under way. Finally, we forecast nickel production to reach 180kt in 2016, marking an average annual rate of growth of 1.6% from 164kt in 2010, with Sumitomo Metal Mining leading growth as it increases output at its Niihama refinery, the country's largest, from 41ktpa to 63ktpa in 2013. In addition, we forecast consumption growth to average 1.8% a year, reaching 198kt in 2016.
Overall, we expect production of refined metals to outpace growth in demand, leading to an output surplus over the coming years. Indeed, we expect Japan to become a larger net nickel exporter from 2013. We therefore expect Japan's exports of refined metals to increase, with the primary export market being China, a market we expect to remain reliant on imported metals, at least in the short to medium term.
Our forecasts are based on the premise that the Japanese economy will slowly recover from recession and the March 2011 earthquake and continue its pre-crisis trend of slow growth. Consequently, there are downside risks to our forecasts depending on the performance of the wider economy. If the country shows signs of a slower than expected recovery we will consider revising down our forecasts.
Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
Japan Political SWOT
Japan Economic SWOT
Japan Business Environment SWOT
Global Overview
Steel Market
Table: BMI’s Steel Forecasts
Table: Steel Products And Inputs – Price Data
Commodities Forecast
Gold
Copper
Aluminium
Lead
Nickel
Tin
Zinc
Asia Overview
Steel
Table: Top 10 Asian Steel Producers
Aluminium
Industry Forecast
Steel: Falling Margins To Weigh On Investment
Table: Japan's Steel Production
Nickel: Slow Economic Growth To Weigh On Sector
Table: Japan - Key Nickel Expansion Plans
Table: Japan's Nickel Production And Consumption
Copper: Consumption Growth To Wane
Table: Japan's Refined Copper Production
Table: Japan’s Refined Copper Consumption
Aluminium: Production Relatively Unaffected By Earthquake
Table: Primary And Secondary Production
Table: Refined Aluminium Consumption
Macroeconomic Outlook
Table: Japan’s GDP By Expenditure – US$ Terms Breakdown, 2009-2017
Competitive Landscape – Steel
Table: Top Japanese Steel Producers, Worldwide Capacity, 2010
Nippon Steel Corporation
JFE Steel
Sumitomo Metal Industries
Kobe Steel
Latest Developments
Financial Results
Company Profiles
Nippon Steel
Table: Nippon Steel's Financial Data
Sumitomo Metals
Table: Sumitomo Metal's Key Financial Data
Global Assumptions
Table: Global Assumptions, 2010-2016
Table: Global And Regional Real GDP Growth, 2010-2013 (% change y-o-y)
Table: Developed Market Exchange Rates, 2011-2013
Table: Emerging Market Exchange Rates, 2010-2013
Developed States
Table: Developed States – Real GDP Growth, 2010-2013
Emerging Markets
Table: Emerging Markets – Real GDP Growth. 2010-2013
Consensus
Table: BMI And Bloomberg Consensus Real GDP Growth Forecasts, 2011 And 2012 (%)
Country Snapshot: Japan Demographic Data
Section 1: Population
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030
Section 2: Education And Healthcare
Table: Education, 2002-2005
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030
Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power
Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006
Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$)
Table: Average Annual Wages, 2000-2012
BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Cross Checks
- Nippon Steel
- Sumitomo Metals
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