Uganda Power Report Q3 2012
Business Monitor International, May 2012, Pages: 57
BMI View: Uganda's power sector suffers from a shortage of generating capacity due to years of underinvestment, which have resulted in power infrastructure falling into disrepair. This has been confirmed by new historical data for generation and consumption. We also note that the country is exposed to risks stemming from a poorly diversified electricity mix, with hydroelectricity providing around 58.96% of total power generation output in 2011; the remainder of Uganda's power generation comes from thermal power stations, which use a mixture of bagasse and biodiesel fuel. In addition to introducing new hydro facilities, the sector's long-term development will be characterised by a move towards renewable energy sources.
In the five years between 2011 and 2016, Uganda's power generation is expected to increase by an annual average of 8.96%, to reach 4.48 terawatt hours (TWh). We maintain that the main driver of this growth will be a 6.51% annual average rise in hydropower generation. Meanwhile, thermal power generation is expected to increase by an annual average of 14% over the period. In the short term, Uganda's dependence on hydroelectricity for the bulk of its power generation means that the country is vulnerable to fluctuations in rainfall.
This weakness became clear in 2011, when a widespread and prolonged drought in East Africa badly affected power output across the region, where most of the electricity is generated using hydropower. With drought-stricken countries forced to introduce emergency measures, the power crisis illustrates that major reforms and capacity expansion programmes are essential to sustain economic growth.
Nonetheless, we note that Uganda is currently undertaking several major hydroelectric projects. These aim to improve the country's power supply and increase access to electricity. This considered we highlight that some key trends and developments observed this quarter include:
- The first of five turbines at the 250 megawatt (MW) Bujagali hydropower plant in Uganda was connected to the country's grid on February 2 2012. This new addition to the grid will cut the existing supply gap, albeit minimally; however, the country will have to wait for the completion of the entire project before it can benefit from its full impact, according to Energy Minister Irene Muloni.
- There are downside risks to our forecasts, as electricity prices could rise beyond the means of a considerable group of consumers. This risk stems from a decision taken by the Uganda government to abolish electricity subsidies, which were paid to power generators to cushion consumers. However, we also note that the hike in prices could help the national utility to support further capital expenditure (capex) for new projects.
- Furthermore, we note that political risk represents downside risks to project development in both the infrastructure and power sectors. Indeed, the Ugandan government’s decision to declare the opposition movement Action For Change illegal demonstrates that tensions are rising. With the backing of human rights groups and key opposition figureheads, we believe that the organisation will defy the ban and continue to demonstrate, likely leading to further clashes with the authorities.
Business Monitor International's Uganda Power Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, power associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Uganda's power industry.
SWOT Analysis
Uganda Power SWOT
Global Industry Overview
Regional Industry Overview
Industry Forecast Scenario
Uganda Macroeconomic Snapshot
Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data
Country Snapshot: Power Sector
Uganda Industry Forecasts
Electricity Generation And Power Generating Capacity
Table: Uganda Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts, 2008-2016
Table: Uganda Total Electricity Generation Long-Term Forecasts, 2013-2021
Electricity Consumption
Table: Uganda Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts, 2008-2016
Table: Uganda Total Electricity Consumption Long-Term Forecasts, 2013-2021
Transmission & Distribution, Imports & Exports
Table: Uganda Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Data And Forecasts, 2008-2016
Table: Uganda Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Long-Term Forecasts, 2013-2021
Table: Uganda Trade Data And Forecasts, 2008-2016
Table: Uganda Long-Term Trade Forecasts, 2013-2021
Key Policies/Market Structure
Key Projects Database
Table: Major Power Projects – East Africa
Regional Risk/Reward Ratings
MEA Regional Power Risk/Reward Ratings
Table: MEA Power Risk/Reward Ratings (Scores Out Of 100)
Uganda’s Power Risk/Reward Ratings
Rewards
Risks
Competitive Landscape/Company Monitor
Table: Main Utilities In East Africa
Glossary of Terms
Table: Glossary of Terms
Methodology and Sources
Industry Forecasts
Power Industry - Data Methodology
Generation and Consumption Data
Electricity Generation Capacity Data
Power Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
Table: Power Risk/Reward Indicators
Sources
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