Zimbabwe Autos Report Q3 2012
- ID: 2136651
- May 2012
- Region: Zimbabwe
- 35 Pages
- Business Monitor International
The Zimbabwe Autos Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, auto associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Zimbabwe's automotive industry.
Zimbabwe remains one of the less attractive auto markets within Sub-Saharan Africa, reflecting the stilldifficult economic and political backdrop within the country. In our newly released Industry Risk/Reward Ratings for the Sub-Saharan African region, Zimbabwe ranks in 14th place (out of 17), with a score of 36.39 out of 100. A full ratings table and commentary can be found in this report.
Our prognosis for new car sales also remains downbeat, with our current forecasts calling for a total of just 8,621 new vehicles to be sold in the country in 2016. The majority of new vehicle sales will likely be to business customers, with the average Zimbabwean not having sufficient money to buy a new car.
Zimbabwe's vehicle market is similar to many of its regional peers in that the used car segment accounts for the majority of vehicles on the road. The government had been looking to introduce measures aimed at reducing the number of used vehicles imported into the country, both for the sake of improving safety standards and reducing pollution. However, in October 2011, it was reported that the government had dropped plans to restrict imports of used cars older than five years 'until economic conditions improve', according to Transport, Communications and Infrastructural Development Minister Nicholas Goche.
However, import restrictions on left-hand-drive vehicles came into effect from November 1 2011. The government has also been seeking to encourage car purchases through a system of subsidised car loans for civil servants. However, with the loan amount reportedly only totalling US$7,000, and the cheapest price for a domestically produced new car standing at US$20,000, it is hard to see how this will boost new car sales. It is more likely that public servants will use these loans to buy good-quality secondhand cars.
Imported used cars form the backbone of Zimbabwe's autos market and although the government has been trying to cut back on what it considers to be the less attractive vehicles, sales were boosted in 2011 by the government budget. The country witnessed a spike in used vehicle imports, particularly through the Beitbridge Border Post, as the 2011 budget included a cut in excise duty.
While the reduction in landing costs for an imported vehicle has undoubtedly contributed to growth, rules restricting left-hand drive cars and the earlier expectation of a ban on older imports have forced consumers to bring forward purchases.
In the supplier segment, a ban on sub-standard imported tyres is also under consideration. This could lead to regained market share for the European firms which previously dominated the market. The move is also aimed at lowering the number of accidents caused by unsuitable tyres, and protecting domestic tyre companies. According to Transport Communications and Infrastructure Development Permanent Secretary Partson Mbiriri, a large proportion of cheaper tyres imported into Zimbabwe cannot cope with the rough terrain and burst, leading to a large number of accidents. His department has approached the Ministry of Industry and Commerce and the two ministries will form a committee to investigate the possibility of a ban. SHOW LESS READ MORE >
Executive Summary 5
SWOT Analysis 6
Zimbabwe Political SWOT 6
Zimbabwe Economic SWOT 7
Zimbabwe Business Environment 8
Global Overview 9
Global Autos Update: End Of First Quarter Brings Both Positive And Negative Revisions As Key Trends 9
Table: Passenger Car Sales (Units), Jan-March 2012 9
Regional Market Overview 13
Currency And Security Issues See European Imports Winning Out 13
Industry Risk/Reward Ratings 15
South Africa Leads New BMI Ratings 15
Table: Sub-Saharan Africa Autos Risk/Reward Ratings 18
Macroeconomic Forecast Scenario 19
Expenditure Breakdown 19
Table: Zimbabwe - Economic Activity 21
Industry Forecast Scenario 22
Table: Zimbabwe Automotives Historical Data & Forecasts , 2009-2016 22
Used Cars 23
Competitive Landscape 24
Market Overview 24
Industry Developments 26
Competitive Monitor 28
Incentive Programme Fuels GM Regional Expansion 28
Country Snapshot: Zimbabwe Demographic Data 30
Section 1: Population 30
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030 30
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030 31
Section 2: Education And Healthcare 31
Table: Education, 2000-2003 31
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030 31
Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power 32
Table: Employment Indicators, 1997 And 1999- 32
Table: Average Annual Manufacturing Wages, 1996-2002 32
BMI Methodology 33
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 33