Vietnam Telecommunications Report Q2 2012
Business Monitor International, April 2012, Pages: 98
Business Monitor International's Vietnam Telecommunications Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, telecommunication associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Vietnam's telecommunications industry.
Despite its growth opportunities, the Vietnamese telecoms industry remains relatively unattractive in the short term due to the dominance of state-owned entities in a highly competitive landscape. Recent data from the General Statistics Office indicated that the mobile sector is experiencing sluggish growth, which could be attributed to market saturation, although this has alleviated some pressure on the fixed-line market. By end-2016, we envisage 132.373mn mobile subscribers in Vietnam, up from 122.304mn in 2012. Meanwhile, we continue to expect the fixed-line sector to contract, with the number of subscribers declining to 13.035mn in 2016.
Although Vietnamese companies have already launched 4G trials, the response from consumers has been muted. This has partially resulted in the Ministry of Information and Communications announcing in February 2012 that 4G services will be put on hold until 2018 to allow mobile operators to recoup their investments on 3G technology. While Vietnam's draft national strategy on telecoms developments has called for commercial services in 2015, we welcome the flexibility by the regulator to postpone the licensing process, especially when operators have also demonstrated little interest in offering the service.
There is still plenty of growth potential in Vietnam’s 3G market as seen by operators’ recent aggressive strategy to pursue consumers. According to VietNamNet Bridge, MobiFone was reported to have triggered the price competition by launching a mobile internet package that comes with unlimited 3G data usage for VND60,000 a month in October 2011. By contrast, a GPRS connection with slower speeds costs twice as much. By lowering the tariff benchmark to such a low level, Vietnamese operators are running the risk of unrealistic consumer expectations in the future, in addition to a sudden spike in demand.
Vietnam retained its 15th position in BMI’s latest Asia Pacific Telecoms Risk/Reward Ratings. The recent surge in crude oil prices has presented significant upside risks to cost-push inflationary pressures in Vietnam. However, we believe this is not enough to reverse the present downtrend in headline consumer price inflation, given that credit conditions remain tight. Furthermore, we expect demand for credit to continue to cool in H112 as foreign direct investment eases as a result of a bleak outlook for exports.
Despite growing concerns that recent political uprisings in the Middle East would spread towards other authoritarian regimes including Vietnam, we believe the risk of a major political upheaval in Vietnam remains remote in the medium term. We note there has been a decisive shift in the Communist Party of Vietnam (CPV)'s direction towards allowing for democratic reforms and addressing rampant corruption. We believe that further reforms will be crucial in reinforcing confidence in the CPV's leadership over the coming years.
Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
Vietnam Mobile SWOT
Vietnam Wireline SWOT
Vietnam Political SWOT
Vietnam Economic SWOT
Vietnam Business Environment SWOT
Risk Reward Ratings
Asia Pacific
Table: Asia Telecoms Risk/Reward Ratings
Vietnam
Industry Forecast Scenario
Mobile
Table: Telecoms Sector – Mobile – Historical Data And Forecasts
ARPU
Table: Telecoms Sector – Mobile ARPU – Historical Data And Forecasts (US$)
Fixed Line
Table: Telecoms Sector – Fixed Line – Historical Data And Forecasts
Internet
Table: Telecoms Sector – Internet – Historical Data And Forecasts
Market Data Analysis
Mobile
Table: Vietnam Mobile Market, December 2010
3G
Mobile Contract Wins
Table: Mobile Contract Wins
Mobile Operator Data
Table: Vietnam Mobile Market Overview
Mobile Content
Regional Outlook
Table: Selected NFC Developments, 2011
Country Outlook
Value-Added Services Timeline
Table: Selected VAS Services
Fixed Line
Long-Distance Services
Fixed Wireless
Internet
Broadband
Mobile Broadband
Table: Vietnam – 4G Triallists
IPTV
Wireline Contract Wins
Table: Wireline Contract Wins
Regulatory Environment
Vietnam: Regulatory Bodies And Their Responsibilities
Legislation And Market Liberalisation
Regulation
Licensing And Spectrum
Regulatory Developments
Competitive Landscape
Competitor Analysis
Table: Key Players – Vietnam Telecoms Sector
Company Monitor
Alcatel-Lucent
Opportunity For Improvement
Alcatel-Lucent's Recent Major Contracts In Asia
Selected Operators Profiles
Vietnam Posts & Telecommunications (VNPT)
Viettel
MobiFone
VinaPhone
S-Fone (S-Telecom)
EVN Telecom
FPT Telecom
Regional Telecommunications Penetration Overview
Fixed Line
Table: Regional Fixed-Line Penetration Overview
Mobile
Table: Regional Mobile Penetration Overview
Broadband
Table: Regional Broadband Penetration Overview
BMI Telecoms Industry Glossary
Table: Glossary Of Terms
Country Snapshot: Vietnam Demographic Data
Section 1: Population
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030
Section 2: Education And Healthcare
Table: Education, 2002-2005
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030
Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power
Table: Employment Indicators, 1999-2004
Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$)
BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Table: Key Indicators For Telecommunications Industry Forecasts
Telecoms Business Environment Ratings
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
Table: Ratings Indicators
Weighting
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
Sources
- Alcatel-Lucent
- Vietnam Posts & Telecommunications (VNPT)
- Viettel
- MobiFone
- VinaPhone
- S-Fone (S-Telecom)
- EVN Telecom
- FPT Telecom
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