Vietnam Oil and Gas Report Q2 2012
Business Monitor International, April 2012, Pages: 70
Business Monitor International's Vietnam Oil and Gas Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, oil and gas associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Vietnam's oil and gas industry.
BMI View: Oil output will continue to edge higher over the next few years as production from new developments offsets declining volumes at the flagship Bach Ho field. We expect oil output to peak in 2014, at 407,530b/d, before declining rapidly to just 382,870b/d by 2021. Given that demand is set to rise in line with strong economic growth, export volumes are likely to be eroded further and we expect Vietnam to become a small net importer of oil by 2015. New developments are set to boost long-term gas production to 24bcm by 2016. We also expect strong gas reserves growth on the back of offshore exploration activity in the Cuu Long and Phu Khanh basins.
The main trends and developments we highlight for Vietnam’s Oil and Gas sector are:
- New production from the Te Giac Trang (White Rhino), Dai Hung (Big Bear), and Chim Soa (Blackbird) developments will help offset declines at the flagship Bach Ho field. These projects will drive production growth to a new peak of peak at 407,530 barrels per day (b/d) in 2014.
- Consumption of crude is likely to rise steadily in line with our forecast of 6.9% average GDP growth between 2011 and 2016. We expect oil demand to hit 430,640b/d by 2016, implying net imports of approximately 34,000b/d.
- BMI estimates gas production will rise from an estimated 10.71bcm in 2012 to 24bcm by 2016. This is in line with consumption growth. A slight deficit of production late in the forecast period could allow for a small volume of imports, particularly if key power and infrastructure developments go ahead as planned and if new exploration disappoints.
- Oil and gas reserves could rise if new exploration gathers pace following the conclusion of the latest licensing round. However, ongoing risks from vigorous Chinese opposition to drilling in the disputed South China Sea could delay drilling yet again. We have therefore kept our reserves forecasts unchanged at 4.4bn barrels (bbl) and 620trn cubic metres (tcm) for 2012.
- The development of Vietnam’s refining industry is advancing, albeit at a much slower pace than initially expected. The US$1bn development of the Dung Quat refinery could raise capacity to 200,000b/d by 2016. We also anticipate that the Nghi Son refinery will be the first new project to come onstream, with a targeted start date of 2015/2016. Vietnam’s refinery developments will preserve valuable light sweet domestic crudes for export, while allowing for the processing of cheaper heavier foreign grades for domestic consumption.
At the time of writing we assume an OPEC basket oil price for 2012 of US$99.38/bbl, falling to US$97.23/bbl in 2013. Global GDP in 2012 is forecast at 2.6%, down from an assumed 3.1% in 2011, reflecting a faltering recovery in the US and an uncertain eurozone debt situation. For 2013, growth is estimated at 3.3%.
SWOT Analysis
Vietnam Oil and Gas SWOT
Global Energy Market Outlook
Table: Libya Production Update: Main Fields (As Of Jan 9)
Table: Global Oil Consumption, 2009-2016 (000b/d)
Table: Global Oil Production, 2009-2016 (000b/d)
Regional Energy Market Outlook
Vietnam Energy Market Overview
Table: Vietnam – Upstream Projects Database
Industry Forecast Scenario
Table: Vietnam Oil & Gas – Historical Data And Forecasts, 2009-2016
Table: Vietnam Oil & Gas – Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021
Oil and Gas Reserves
Oil Supply And Demand
Gas Supply And Demand
Able Gas Companies
Oil Storage Facilities
Gas Pipelines
Regional and Country Risk/Reward Ratings
Upstream Risk / Reward Ratings
Downstream Risk / Reward Ratings
Competitive Landscape
Executive Summary
Table: Key Players – Vietnam Oil And Gas Sector
Overview/State Role
Licensing And Regulation
Government Policy
International Relations
Table: Key Upstream Players
Table: Key Downstream Players
Company Monitor
PetroVietnam
TNK-BP
Petronas Vietnam
Zarubezhneft
Vietgazprom – Summary
ConocoPhillips – Summary
Lukoil – Summary
Idemitsu Kosan – Summary
Korea National Oil Corporation – Summary
Royal Dutch Shell – Summary
Chevron – Summary
Talisman Energy – Summary
Premier Oil – Summary
Soco International – Summary
Total – Summary
Petrolimex – Summary
Neon Energy – Summary
Others – Summary
Asia – Regional Appendix
Table: Oil Consumption, 2009-2016 (000b/d)
Table: Oil Consumption Long-Term Forecasts 2014-2021 (000b/d)
Table: Oil Production, 2009-2016 (000b/d)
Table: Oil Production Long-Term forecasts, 2014-2021 (000b/d)
Table: Refining Capacity, 2009-2016 (000b/d)
Table: Refining Capacity Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (000b/d)
Table: Gas Production, 2009-2016 (bcm)
Table: Gas Production Long-Term forecasts, 2014-2021 (bcm)
Table: Gas Consumption, 2009-2016 (bcm)
Table: Gas Consumption Long-Term forecasts, 2014-2021 (bcm)
Table: Gas Imports, 2009-2016 (bcm)
Table: LNG Exports, 2009-2016 (bcm)
Methodology And Risks To Forecasts
Glossary Of Terms
Oil And Gas Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
Ratings Overview
Table: BMI’s Oil & Gas Business Environment Ratings – Structure
Indicators
Table: BMI’s Oil & Gas Upstream Ratings – Methodology
Table: BMI’s Oil & Gas Business Environment Downstream Ratings – Methodology
BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Energy Industry
Cross checks
Sources
- PetroVietnam
- TNK-BP
- Petronas Vietnam
- Zarubezhneft
- Vietgazprom
- ConocoPhillips
- Lukoil
- Idemitsu Kosan
- Korea National Oil Corporation
- Royal Dutch Shell
- Chevron
- Talisman Energy
- Premier Oil
- Soco International
- Total
- Petrolimex
- Neon Energy
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