Kazakhstan and Central Asia Defence and Security Report Q3 2012
Business Monitor International, May 2012, Pages: 88
Kazakhstan and Central Asia Defence and Security Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, defence and security associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Kazakhstan and Central Asia's defence and security industry.
The five major Central Asian Republics of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan have commenced a subtle, yet important, realignment of their security policies. This is occurring against the backdrop of the large-scale withdrawal of US and NATO forces from Afghanistan in circa 2014/15. The withdrawal of these forces, which is expected to commence from 2014, could have serious security implications for all five of these nations. All five nations are on the frontline as regards the export of Islamic extremism, terrorism and narcotics from Afghanistan which could increase following the US and NATO withdrawal. For the previous decade, the Central Asian Republics have benefited from a relative stabilisation of their internal security situation, and the security situation on their borders with Afghanistan (with the exception of Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan, neither of which shares a border with Afghanistan) since military operations commenced in Afghanistan in 2001.
Despite all of the Central Asian republics being largely Muslim countries, their political leaderships have been highly concerned about the export of of Islamic extremism into their societies. This is in addition to security concerns regarding the trafficking or narcotics and weapons into these countries. In a worst case scenario, a potential security vacuum emerging in the wake of a US and NATO withdrawal from Afghanistan could pre-empt all these scenarios becoming a reality in a desperately poor region of Asia, which can ill afford a descent into civil war, strife and social disintegration. For Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan such a scenario is not necessarily hypothetical. All five have suffered some kind of blowback from Afghanistan’s long and violent history following the Soviet Union’s withdrawal from that country, and the subsequent dissolution of the USSR. These repercussions have taken the form of terrorism, the export of extremist Islam and the trafficking of drugs.
All five countries are not alone in perceiving the threat to their respective territories in the wake of the US and NATO withdrawal. Russia is similarly concerned. For Moscow, Central Asia remains firmly within its sphere of influence with Russia seeing the Central Asian Republics as its vulnerable ‘soft underbelly’ lacking the security and stability of its western and eastern borders. Like the Republics, Moscow greatly fears the export of violence and illegal activity from any worsening of the security situation in Afghanistan. To this end, Russia is increasing its security assistance to Central Asia. Not only is this intended to ensure that these countries can meet any threat, but may also be an attempt to draw them more firmly into Moscow’s sphere of influence once the US departs from Central Asia. With the security situation in Afghanistan is showing no immediate sign of improving, the next 12 months will be of vital importance for the Central Asian Republics as they contemplate the regional security situation ahead of them. At the same time, several countries in Central Asia are positioning themselves to take advantage of the withdrawal of US and NATO personnel and equipment from Afghanistan through the region and back into Europe and North America by preparing to charge transit fees for the use of their road and rail networks.
Although investment into the combined armed forces and defence capabilities of Central Asia has largely stagnated ever since the collapse of the Soviet Union in the early 1990s, this trend may soon begin to ebb.
One of the driving factors for any future renewed investment into the defence sector could be the growing hydrocarbon industry which is developing in the region. Kazakhstan, for example, is likely to enter the ranks of the world’s top ten oil-producing countries once the Caspian Sea Kashagan oilfield commences production. However, in terms of sourcing new defence equipment, Russia is likely to remain the supplier of necessity, if not the supplier of choice, to the Central Asian states. The record on human rights and good governance in much of the region make it likely the large-scale exports of western defence materiel to Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan at best politically highly controversial, at worst illegal.
Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
Central Asia Security SWOT
Central Asian Defence Industry SWOT
Central Asia Political SWOT
Global Political Outlook
Major Risks Looming In 2012-2013
Global Flashpoints: Eurozone, Iran, Syria, Afghanistan, Korean Peninsula
Table: Election Timetable, Q212-Q113
Wild Cards To Watch
Europe Security Overview
Europe In A Global Context
Europe's Key Security Issues Over The Coming Decade
Security Risk Analysis
BMI’s Security Ratings
Table: Europe Security Risk Ratings
Table: Europe State Terrorism Vulnerability To Terrorism Index
Central Asia Political Overview
Long-Term Political Outlook
Table: Scenario Matrix: Possible Evolution Of Central Asian States
Kazakhstan
Kyrgyzstan
Tajikistan
Turkmenistan
Uzbekistan
Armed Forces And Government Spending
Kazakhstan’s Armed Forces
Kyrgyzstan’s Armed Forces
Tajikistan’s Armed Forces
Turkmenistan’s Armed Forces
Uzbekistan’s Armed Forces
International Deployments
Table: Central Asia Foreign Developments
Weapons Of Mass Destruction
Market Overview
Arms Trade Overview
Procurement Trends And Developments
Industry Forecast Scenario
Kazakhstan
Armed Forces
Table: Kazakhstan’s Armed Forces, 2002-2008 ('000 personnel, unless otherwise stated)
Table: Kazakhstan’s Manpower Available For Military Services, 2009-2016 (aged 16-49, unless otherwise stated)
Defence Expenditure
Table: Kazakhstan’s Defence Expenditure, 2009-2016
Table: Kazakhstan’s Defence Expenditure Scenario – Changing % Of GDP, 2009-2016 (US$mn)
Kyrgyzstan
Armed Forces
Table: Kyrgyzstan’s Armed Forces, 2002-2008 (’000 personnel, unless otherwise stated)
Table: Kyrgyzstan’s Manpower Available For Military Services, 2009-2016 (aged 16-49, unless otherwise stated)
Defence Expenditure
Table: Kyrgyzstan’s Defence Expenditure, 2009-2016
Table: Kyrgyzstan’s Defence Expenditure Scenario – Changing % Of GDP, 2009-2016 (US$mn)
Tajikistan
Armed Forces
Table: Tajikistan’s Armed Forces, 2000-2008 ('000 personnel, unless otherwise stated)
Table: Tajikistan’s Manpower Available For Military Services, 2009-2016 (aged 16-49, unless otherwise stated)
Defence Expenditure
Table: Tajikistan’s Defence Expenditure, 2009-2016
Table: Tajikistan’s Defence Expenditure Scenario – Changing % Of GDP, 2009-2016 (US$mn)
Turkmenistan
Armed Forces
Table: Turkmenistan’s Armed Forces, 2000-2008 (’000 personnel, unless otherwise stated)
Table: Turkmenistan’s Manpower Available For Military Services, 2009-2016 (aged 16-49, unless otherwise stated)
Defence Expenditure
Table: Turkmenistan’s Defence Expenditure, 2009-2016
Table: Turkmenistan’s Defence Expenditure Scenario – Changing % Of GDP, 2009-2016 (US$mn)
Uzbekistan
Armed Forces
Table: Uzbekistan’s Armed Forces, 2000-2008 ('000 personnel, unless otherwise stated)
Table: Uzbekistan’s Manpower Available For Military Services, 2009-2016 (aged 16-49, unless otherwise stated)
Defence Expenditure
Table: Uzbekistan’s Defence Expenditure, 2009-2016
Table: Uzbekistan’s Defence Expenditure Scenario – Changing % Of GDP, 2009-2016 (US$mn)
Macroeconomic Outlook
Kazakhstan
Table: Kazakhstan – Economic Activity, 2011-2016
Kyrgyzstan
Table: Kyrgyzstan – Economic Activity, 2011-2016
Tajikistan
Table: Tajikistan – Economic Activity, 2011-2016
Turkmenistan
Table: Turkmenistan – Economic Activity, 2011-2016
Uzbekistan
Table: Uzbekistan – Economic Activity, 2011-2016
Company Profiles
Chkalov Tashkent Industrial Aircraft Association (TAPiCH)
GE International Operations
BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Defence Industry
Sources
- Chkalov Tashkent Industrial Aircraft Association (TAPiCH)
- GE International Operations
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