Ghana Autos Report Q3 2012
Business Monitor International, May 2012, Pages: 35
Ghana Autos Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, auto associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Ghana's automotive industry.
The first signs of BMI's view that the Ghanaian economy will enjoy stellar economic growth over the medium term, propelled by the nascent oil & gas sector, were visible in data released for 2011, which showed GDP growth of 16.8% in Q311 and 16.0% in Q411. For the autos sector, this translated into light vehicle sales of 9,177 units, according to data reported by Renault. This year-on-year (y-o-y) growth of 43% surpassed even our own upbeat projection of 30% growth, based on the sector's impressive expansion to date. Despite the country's small size, Ghana's autos market has grown rapidly in recent years owing to economic growth and a developing middle class.
We expect this momentum to be sustained in 2012, when our Africa team's forecast for GDP growth of 7.9% should contribute to 28% growth in vehicle sales, to 11,774 units. In addition to increasing personal spending power, we believe government-led schemes, such as re-equipping the police force with new vehicles, will also bolster sales. However, there are risks of macroeconomic instability stemming from burgeoning oil revenues and the December 2012 election. With annual growth in GDP per capita unlikely to fall below double-digits over the next five years, taking the figure from US$1,565 in 2011 to US$2,876 by the end of our forecast period in 2016, we expect vehicle sales to be a beneficiary.
There are other signs of development elsewhere in the industry. Hyundai Motor announced in February 2012 it would open a technical training centre aimed at preparing young students for jobs in the automotive repair business. The company will invest US$700,000, in conjunction with KOICA and PLAN Korea, with completion of the centre slated for July 2012.
The training centre will take 300 students in its first year, with successful trainees being offered jobs in Hyundai repair centres. The Ghana facility will be the first of several in Africa and Asia, which Hyundai is planning to build in a continuous cycle, according to press reports. Although Ghana does not have a vehicle production industry as yet, the centre is aimed at giving local people a grounding in the industry and making the sector more localised.
Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
Ghana Autos SWOT
Ghana Political SWOT
Ghana Economic SWOT
Ghana Business Environment
Global Overview
Global Autos Update: End Of First Quarter Brings Both Positive And Negative Revisions As Key Trends
Table: Passenger Car Sales (Units), Jan-March 2012
Regional Market Overview
Currency And Security Issues See European Imports Winning Out
Industry Risk/Reward Ratings
South Africa Leads New BMI Ratings
Table: Sub-Saharan Africa Autos Risk/Reward Ratings
Macroeconomic Forecast Scenario
Expenditure Breakdown
Table: Ghana - Economic Activity
Industry Forecast Scenario
Table: Ghana Automotives Historical Data & Forecasts
Competitive Landscape
Market Overview
Latest Developments
Used Car Segment
Company Developments
Company Monitor
Incentive Programme Fuels GM Regional Expansion
Company Profile
Nissan Ghana (Auto Parts Ltd)
Toyota Ghana
BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Sources
- Nissan Ghana (Auto Parts Ltd)
- Toyota Ghana
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