Country Risk Service Switzerland 2nd Quarter
The Economist Intelligence Unit, April 2013, Pages: 16
The government coalition of the four largest parties and one smaller party is expected to remain in power for its full term until 2015. Policy will focus on improving the business environment, restraining healthcare cost growth and reforming social security systems. Bilateral agreements with the EU will remain in force, but negotiating new agreements will be difficult until a new framework for relations is found, as the EU would prefer a less complex structure. The general government budget is estimated to have been in balance in 2012 and is forecast to move to slight surpluses thereafter. The Economist Intelligence Unit believes that real GDP growth will rise gradually from 1% in 2012 to 1.2% in 2013 and an average of 1.7% in 2014-17. The Swiss National Bank (SNB, the central bank) will aim to maintain its currency ceiling for the Swiss franc's exchange rate against the euro and is expected to be successful, although there is a small risk that it could fail. We expect deflation to ease, with a return to low-level inflation in 2013, restrained by a strong Swiss franc. The current account surplus is forecast to average around 6% of GDP in 2013-17. Switzerland faces risks to financial and economic stability from strong appreciation of the Swiss franc and the euro area crisis.
The government postponed its decision on whether to extend to 2014 current restrictions on immigration from the EU.
A Federal Transport Department study claimed that increasingly heavy truck traffic will hit the Swiss Alps over the next years, despite a constitutional obligation to restrict annual Alpine transit traffic to 650,000 vehicles by 2018.
Country Risk Service Switzerland 2nd Quarter
Switzerland at a glance: 2013-17
Overview
Key changes from last month
Political outlook
Economic policy outlook
Economic forecast
Risk assessment
Sovereign risk
Currency risk
Banking sector risk
Political risk
Economic structure risk
Rating definitions
Sovereign risk
Currency risk
Banking sector risk
Political risk
Economic structure risk
Overall country risk
Central scenario for 2013-17: Political stability
Central scenario for 2013-17: Election watch
Central scenario for 2013-17: International relations
Central scenario for 2013-17: Policy trends
Central scenario for 2013-17: Fiscal policy
Central scenario for 2013-17: Monetary policy
Central scenario for 2013-17: Economic growth
Central scenario for 2013-17: Inflation
Central scenario for 2013-17: Exchange rates
Central scenario for 2013-17: External sector
Key risk indicators
Ratings summary
Quarterly indicators
International assumptions summary
Economic structure
Public finances
Exchange rates, interest rates and prices
Financial sector
Current account
Foreign payment and liquidity indicators
External trade
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