Country Risk Service Cote d'Ivoire
The Economist Intelligence Unit, May 2012, Pages: 24
The president, Alassane Ouattara, faces three significant problems: preventing further violence between rival factions; managing the fallout from investigations into the atrocities; and returning the country to fast economic growth. A truth and reconciliation commission is investigating the atrocities; its inquiries could spur political crises if they implicate allies of Mr Ouattara. The economy will bounce back as liquidity returns and spending on reconstruction spurs expansion. The Economist Intelligence Unit forecasts real GDP growth of 6.4% in 2012, before settling down to an average annual growth rate of 5.8% in 2013-16, assuming that political stability can be maintained. A functioning state, secure transport conditions and lower global commodity prices will reduce price pressures. We forecast that inflation will average 2.1% in 2012-14, before picking up in 2015-16 as domestic demand grows.
The newly-appointed prime minister, Jeannot Ahoussou, has announced his new cabinet. The long-serving economy and finance minister, Charles Koffi Diby, has retained his role, guaranteeing continuity in economic policy. Notable cabinet appointments include Hamed Bakayoko as interior minister tasked with overseeing the fraught process of reforming the security forces, and Adama Toungara to the powerful Ministry of Mines, Oil and Energy.
The economy performed more strongly than expected in 2011. A sharp rebound in the second half of the year meant that the contraction in real GDP was contained to 4.7% in 2011 (from an initial IMF estimate of 6.3%).
Industry List: Financial Services
Industry Codes (NAIC): 52
Industry Codes (SIC): 60
Country Risk Service Cote d'Ivoire
Cote d'Ivoire at a glance: 2012-16
OVERVIEW
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Central scenario for 2012-16: Political stability
Central scenario for 2012-16: Election watch
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Central scenario for 2012-16: Policy trends
Central scenario for 2012-16: Fiscal policy
Central scenario for 2012-16: Monetary policy
Central scenario for 2012-16: Economic growth
Central scenario for 2012-16: Inflation
Central scenario for 2012-16: Exchange rates
Central scenario for 2012-16: External sector
Central scenario for 2012-16: External financing requirement
Central scenario for 2012-16: External debt
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