Colombia Defence and Security Report Q3 2012
Business Monitor International, May 2012, Pages: 78
Colombia's government continues to wage its campaign against insurgent organisations and criminal gangs involved in narcotics production and trafficking. The employment of the country's armed forces against these threats has yielded some successes, although it appears that the government is still a long way from defeating Marxist-inspired guerrilla groups such as FARC. This organisation has used a combination of attacks on Colombia's law enforcement organisations and the civilian population, along with kidnappings, extortion and drug trafficking to raise revenue.
Throughout the first quarter of 2012, the Colombian armed forces have enjoyed some significant successes against FARC, hitting a training camp, although the group has continued to be able to perform attacks against the security forces. One potentially promising announcement from Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia (FARC) concerns the group’s decision to abandon kidnapping, and to release law enforcement hostages that it may be holding. This bought a supportive, albeit very cautious, reaction from the government.
Whether FARC and the government will soon embark on peace talks remains to be seen. The guerrilla organisation has at times hinted that it would be prepared to return to the negotiating table during 2011, and during the first quarter of 2012. However, the government has outlined a series of preconditions that it insists the FARC must accept before it will enter negotiations. Moreover, there are concerns that FARC's tactics may simply be a ruse to push the government into negotiations, and to suspend military operations while the group reconstitutes itself in the wake of increasingly successful attacks against the organisation by the Colombian law enforcement organisations.
FARC's attacks are also having a negative effect on Colombia's critical national infrastructure. Armed actions against oil installations risk having a detrimental effect on crude oil production. This could derail the government’s goal of increasing production to over 1.5mn barrels per day by 2015. In addition, FARC has attacked power stations, disrupting life in some of Colombia's conurbations. Economic activity has been recently disrupted by one of Colombia's criminal gangs, which ordered a general strike in one of Colombia's northern cities in retaliation for the death of its leader during a gunfight with police.
Government efforts to destroy the FARC are yielding small successes, although it seems unlikely that the guerrilla group will be destroyed in the short term, if it is ever destroyed at all. This situation is much the same for the narcotic criminal gangs which operate throughout much of the country, and which may also be connected to several of Colombia's guerrilla organisations. In some ways, cocaine production is even harder to combat than FARC as a high global demand for the drug continues unabated throughout much of the West and the wider world.
Business Monitor International's Colombia Defence and Security Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, defence and security associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Colombia's defence and security industry.
SWOT Analysis
Colombia Security SWOT
Colombia Defence Industry SWOT
Colombia Political SWOT
Colombia Economic SWOT
Colombia Business Environment SWOT
Global Political Outlook
Major Risks Looming In 2012-2013
Global Flashpoints: Eurozone, Iran, Syria, Afghanistan, Korean Peninsula
Table: Election Timetable, Q212-Q113
Wild Cards To Watch
Latin America Security Overview
The Strategic Outlook For The 2010s
Latin America In A Global Context
Challenges And Threats To Security
The Role Of Outside Powers
Key Factors To Consider In The 2010s
Security Risk Analysis
BMI’s Regional Security Ratings
Table: Latin America Security Ratings
Table: Latin America State Vulnerability To Terrorism Ratings
Colombia’s Security Risk Ratings
Political Overview
Domestic Politics
Long-Term Political Outlook
Domestic Security Overview
Internal Security Situation
External Security Situation
Armed Forces And Government Spending
Armed Forces
International Deployment
Market Overview
Arms Trade Overview
Industry Trends And Developments
Procurement Trends And Developments
Industry Forecast Scenario
Armed Forces
Table: Colombia’s Armed Forces, 2000-2009 (’000 personnel, unless otherwise stated)
Table: Colombia’s Available Manpower For Military Services, 2009-2016 (aged 16-49, unless otherwise stated)
Defence Expenditure
Table: Colombia’s Government Defence Expenditure, 2009-2016
Table: Colombia’s Defence Expenditure Scenario – Changing % Of GDP, 2009-2016 (US$mn)
Defence Trade
Table: Colombia’s Defence Exports, 2009-2016 (US$mn)
Table: Colombia’s Defence Imports, 2009-2016 (US$mn)
Table: Colombia’s Trade Balance, 2009-2016 (US$mn)
Macroeconomic Forecast
Table: Colombia – Selected Investment Projects
Table: Colombia – Economic Activity, 2011-2016
Company Profile
Industria Militar (Indumil)
Country Snapshot: Colombia Demographic Data
Section 1: Population
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030
Section 2: Education And Healthcare
Table: Education, 2002-2005
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030
Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006
Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$)
Table: Average Annual Wages, 2000-2012
BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Defence Industry
Sources
- Industria Militar (Indumil)
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