Czech Republic Tourism Report Q3 2012
Business Monitor International, May 2012, Pages: 54
Tourism Overview Final data for 2011 record annual growth of almost 8% in foreign visitor arrivals in the hospitality sector.
This represents a good pick-up in foreign tourism following a rebound in 2010. Since Q310, there have been broadly favourable quarterly year-on-year (y-o-y) growth rates. In the first two quarters of 2011, growth in foreign arrivals was 7% and 13.5% y-o-y respectively. Figures for Q311 record 5.1% increase in visitors – the weakest quarterly growth rate in 2011 – while in the final quarter of the year, growth in foreign arrivals was 5.7%, compared with Q410.
Hospitality Complete hospitality sector data for 2011 record modest annual growth of 3.5% in total overnight stays in all accommodation establishments. Although foreign tourist nights were up favourably, at over 8% y-o-y, the number of tourist nights attributed to domestic residents fell by some 1% y-o-y. Foreign and domestic guests rose around 8% and 3% y-o-y respectively in 2011, while total guest numbers were up just under 6%. The key source market for tourists, Germany, accounting for some 21% of all visitors, recorded a reasonable 5.5% y-o-y increase in guest numbers in 2011.
Visitors from Russia – the second largest source market (8.3% of the total) – rose substantially, by an annual 37.4%. Aside from the UK and Austria, all of the top 10 source markets achieved positive year-on-year growth in arrivals in 2011. Of note, the UK recorded a sharp fall in guest numbers of nearly 9%, compared with a year earlier. Figures for Q411 record total overnight stays of about 7.3mn, with foreign tourist overnight stays up by some 5% y-o-y, nights spent by domestic tourists were largely unchanged compared with Q410. In the spa sector, total overnight stays by non-resident rose by 6.5% y-o-y, while resident nights continue to remain weak, falling by around 4% y-o-y.
Forecast Scenario We maintain our view of sharply weaker growth in foreign tourism in 2012, which we have also reduced slightly this quarter. We anticipate growth to recover next year though. The far from sanguine outlook hinges mainly on a recession in the eurozone – the key source region – over the next year, with growth in the coming years likely to be very weak. Our economic growth forecasts for the region have been revised down to 1.6% for 2011; -0.5% in 2012; and 1.2% in 2013. Growth in Germany – the most important market for inbound tourism – is forecast to slow sharply from 3% in 2011 to 0.4% in 2012, picking up to 2.0% in 2013.
Relatively strong economic growth in Russia – now the second key source market – although slowing over the short term, should support buoyant tourism to the Czech Republic. In the UK, another major market, growth is expected to slow to 0.6% in 2012 (from 1.0% in 2011), edging up to 1.7% in 2013. The Czech koruna outstripped our expectations in the early part of 2012, appreciating moderately against the euro. However, we expect only mild gains ahead for the koruna versus the euro and forecast an average CZK24.80/EUR in 2012, with stronger appreciatory pressure building towards the end of 2012. The short-term currency effect, therefore, will provide no relief for foreign tourism.
Modest Recovery At Prague Ruzynì Airport Following a decline in total passenger numbers in each of the previous three years, there was a modest recovery in passenger traffic at Prague Ruzynì Airport in 2011, with numbers up 2% y-o-y to around 11.8mn. International traffic (accounting for over 99% of the total) rose by an annual 2.4%, while domestic traffic fell by a substantial 38% y-o-y. This year though has not got off to a good start, with international passenger numbers down about 4% y-o-y in the first two months of 2012.
Another Year Of Falling Passenger Numbers At Czech Airlines As part of ongoing restructuring of the company, Czech Airlines (CSA) operated about 17% fewer flights in 2011, although overall passenger numbers only dropped by 7.5% y-o-y, to some 4.3mn. Despite the fall, CSA carried more than 8% y-o-y more customers on flights to and from destinations in the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS). The carrier also started new regular services from Prague to the Russian cities of Ufa and Nizhny Novgorod, while a flight between Prague and Geneva was also launched. In March 2012, Icelandic low-cost carrier Iceland Express and HOLIDAYS Czech Airlines – a subsidiary of CSA that operates charter flights – signed a code-share agreement, which will start from spring 2013. Further development of their joint activities can be expected in the future.
New Routes By Low-Cost Airlines In 2012, low-cost Czech carrier SmartWings offers new regular flights from Prague to the Greek island of Skiathos, from Ostrava to Mytilene (Greece), between Prague and Athens and new routes to Larnaca (Cyprus) and Alghero (Italy). New European low-cost air carrier Volotea Airlines will start a regular route connecting Prague and Nantes (France) in June 2012. Between June and August 2012, Iceland Express will fly between Prague and Keflavík (Iceland).
Business Monitor International's Czech Republic Tourism Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, tourism associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Czech Republic's tourism industry.
Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
Czech Republic Tourism SWOT
Czech Republic Political SWOT
Czech Republic Economic SWOT
Czech Republic Business Environment SWOT
Industry Forecast Scenario
Arrivals
Table: Arrivals Data, 2009-2016
Accommodation
Table: Hotels Data, 2009-2016 (‘000, unless stated)
Expenditure
Table: Tourism Expenditure And Economic Impact, 2009-2016
Inbound Tourism
Table: Tourist Arrivals, 2009-2016 (‘000, unless stated)
Outbound Tourism
Table: Outbound Tourism Data, 2009-2016
Market Overview – Travel
Commercial Airlines
Table: Czech Airline’s Market Share Of Scheduled Routes From Prague Ruzynì Airport, 2004-2011 (%)
Table: Airline Industry’s Key Players, 2010
Global Oil Products Price Outlook
Market Overview – Hospitality
Accommodation Developments
Infrastructure
Business Environment Outlook
Table: Central And Eastern Europe Travel And Tourism Business Environment Ratings
BMI’s Security Ratings
Table: Europe Security Risk Ratings
Table: Europe State Terrorism Vulnerability To Terrorism Index
Europe Security Overview
Europe In A Global Context
Europe’s Key Security Issues Over The Coming Decade
Global Assumptions
Table: Global Assumptions, 2010-2016
Developed States
Table: Developed States’ Real GDP Growth, 2010-2013
Emerging Markets
Table: Emerging Markets’ Real GDP Growth, 2010-2013
Consensus
Table: Real GDP Growth Consensus Forecasts, 2012 And 2013
Company Profiles
Czech Airlines
Orea Hotels
BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Tourism Industry
Tourism Ratings – Methodology
Table: Tourism Business Environment Indicators
Table: Weighting of Components
Sources
- Czech Airlines
- Orea Hotels
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