Japan Tourism Report Q3 2012
Business Monitor International, May 2012, Pages: 55
Japan’s arrival numbers have grown steadily since 2001. Although they took a hit in 2009, falling to less than 6.66mn after reaching 8.35mn in 2008, arrivals then rebounded in 2010 to 8.45mn. As a result of the devastating earthquake that hit Tohoku on March 11 2011 and the tsunami and nuclear crisis that followed, we cut our outlook for Japan’s tourism industry in 2011 and 2012. Previously, BMI forecast 8.99mn and 9.64mn arrivals in 2011 and 2012 respectively. We now estimate arrivals fell in 2011 to 7.99mn, before rising to 8.57mn in 2012 and eventually reaching 11.09mn by 2016. Although arrivals to Japan fell by 57% y-o-y in April 2011, according to the Japanese Tourism Agency (JTA) arrivals in January 2012 recovered to nearly the same level as year ago, demonstrating that the industry is rebounding quickly.
The number of air and sea tourist arrivals continually increased between 2001 and 2007. Tourist arrivals by air were by far the most predominant, with 8.49mn arriving by air in 2007, compared to 666,000 by sea. Leisure arrivals outnumber those visiting Japan for business purposes. In 2009, leisure arrivals totalled 4.40mn, while business arrivals were 1.41mn, both falling from 2008 but picking up in 2010 to 6.06mn and 1.56mn respectively. BMI estimates the number of leisure arrivals dipped in 2011 to 5.63mn due to the natural disasters and we forecast that in 2012 they will begin to rebound, totalling 6.17mn.
They should increase slowly thereafter to 8.50mn in 2016, when business arrivals are forecast to reach 1.77mn.
Japan is targeting Chinese tourists and has eased visa regulations for Chinese citizens. Until 2009, visas were only granted to individual Chinese travellers with an annual income of at least CNY250,000 (US$36,600). Given that this is a large sum for most Chinese workers, visitors tended to travel as part of a tour group. However, Japan has lowered the threshold of annual income to CNY60,000 (US$8,780). To deal with the rise in visa applications, all seven Japanese diplomatic offices in China will accept applications, instead of just three previously, and the number of Chinese tour agencies eligible to apply for visas for their customers has increased from 48 to 290.
There is room for growth in the low-cost carrier segment of the Japanese airline market. Japan’s air industry is dominated by Japan Airlines (JAL) and All Nippon Airways (ANA). Budget airlines have not sprung up in Japan as in the rest of the Asia Pacific region due to the country’s expensive and inefficient airports. That said, Ibaraki Airport at Omitama, 53 miles (85km) north of Tokyo, opened in March 2010 and is intended to be a no-frills airport, which could allow for budget airlines to enter the market. However, Ibaraki has only attracted one daily flight to the South Korean capital Seoul on Asiana Airlines and domestic flights to Kobe and Sapporo on Skymark Airlines. In February 2011, Peach Aviation was established as the first low-cost carrier in Japan. Peach will be based at Kansai and start flights to Sapporo/Shin Chitose and Fukuoka no later than March 2012, and to Seoul/Incheon in May.
The carrier is 33.4% owned by ANA, while First Eastern Aviation Holdings and Innovation Network Corporation of Japan each have a 33.3% stake. Qantas, JAL, Mitsubishi and Century Tokyo Leasing have established a new low-cost airline, Jetstar Japan. Qantas and JAL have a one-third share, while Mitsubishi and Century Tokyo own 16.7% each. The airline will start domestic flights on July 3 2012 and international services within a year. Jetstar will serve five domestic destinations – Tokyo (Narita), Osaka, Sapporo, Fukuoka and Okinawa.
Business Monitor International's Japan Tourism Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, tourism associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Japan's tourism industry.
Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
Japan Tourism SWOT
Japan Political SWOT
Japan Economic SWOT
Japan Business Environment SWOT
Industry Forecast Scenario
Arrivals
Table: Arrivals Data,2009-2019 (‘000)
Accommodation
Table: Hotels Data, 2009-2016 (‘000)
Expenditure Data
Table: Tourism Expenditure And Economic Impact, 2009-2016
Inbound Tourism
Table: Tourist Arrivals, 2009-2016
Outbound Tourism
Table: Outbound Tourism Data, 2006-2016 (‘000)
Market Overview – Travel
Global Oil Products Price Outlook
Market Overview – Hospitality
Business Environment Outlook
Table: Asia Pacific Travel And Tourism Business Environment Ratings
BMI’s Security Ratings
Table: Asia Pacific Regional Security Ratings
Table: Asia Pacific State Vulnerability To Terrorism Index
Japan’s Security Ratings
North East Asia Security Overview
The Geopolitical Importance Of North East Asia
Flashpoints And Faultlines In North East Asia
The Evolution Of North East Asia
Global Assumptions
Table: Global Assumptions, 2010-2016
Developed States
Table: Developed States’ Real GDP Growth, 2010-2013
Emerging Markets
Table: Emerging Markets’ Real GDP Growth, 2010-2013
Consensus
Table: Real GDP Growth Consensus Forecasts, 2012 And 2013
Company Profiles
All Nippon Airways
Japan Airlines
JAL Hotels
Kamori Kanko
BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Tourism Industry
Tourism Ratings – Methodology
Table: Tourism Business Environment Indicators
Table: Weighting of Components
Sources
- All Nippon Airways
- Japan Airlines
- JAL Hotels
- Kamori Kanko
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