Brazil Agribusiness Report Q2 2012
Business Monitor International, January 2010, Pages: 134
BMI View: Record grains plantings in Brazil are expected to mitigate the impact of lower yields following recent droughts, and we forecast corn production to increase in 2011/12. However, we expect soybean output to fall, as the soy crop has been more severely affected by La Niña weather phenomenon than corn. We expect production of coffee and sugar to recover strongly in 2012/13 as the country enters the up year of its biennial cycle and as sugar cane yields improve on the back of a government replanting programme. The country's dairy and livestock sectors are still being affected by tight margins and low availability of cattle for slaughter, but we expect strong export demand to continue encouraging production in both sectors.
Key Forecasts
- Coffee production growth to 2015/16: 11.2% to 53.5mn tonnes. We expect Brazil to continue its dominance in the export market, especially as coffee consumers in emerging markets are often very price sensitive. Increased domestic consumption also could provide a boost to production over the medium term.
- Soybean consumption growth to 2015/16: 18.3% to 46.1mn tonnes. Increases in livestock production and the potential for biodiesel production will drive growth.
- Poultry production growth to 2015/16: 42.0% to 18.2mn tonnes. Strong growth in the poultry industry is expected following production process improvements and strong gains in feed crops such as corn and soybean, making input more affordable. Domestic and export demand will also serve as key drivers over the medium term.
- 2012 real GDP growth: 3.9% (up from 2.7% in 2011; predicted to average 4.0% over 2011-2016).
- Consumer price inflation: 1.1% year-on-year (y-o-y) in February 2012 (down from 1.4% yo-y in February 2011).
- BMI universe agribusiness market value: 5.6% y-o-y decline to US$170.0bn in 2011/12, forecast to average US$187.7bn between 2010/11 and 2015/16.
Industry Developments
We expect strong sugar output from Brazil's north-east region in 2011/12 to partially offset losses in the main sugar-producing centre-south region. Indeed, in 2011/12, more robust cane varieties and the increased use of irrigation is expected to boost output from the north-east region by 13.5% y-o-y to 5.2mn tonnes, while the centre-south's output is forecast to fall 5.6% y-o-y to 31.7mn tonnes. This increased output from the north east is likely to help the country's overall production to recover slightly in 2012/13, when we expect output to grow 3.0 y-o-y to 38.0mn tonnes. However, because the north-east region still only represents 14.1% of total Brazilian production, we only expect this small rise in output in 2012/13.
Brazilian port authorities are planning to open a new grains port in the Amazon region in order to facilitate the country's soybean exports, mainly by boosting capacity and cutting transportation costs for farmers. The proposed 18mn-tonnes-a-year port of Outeiro will be built near Belem, the largest city in the region. Its grains capacity would surpass capacities of the Port of Santos (16.8mn tonnes) and the Port of Paranagua (14.8mn tonnes).
Sources in the Brazilian coffee industry have indicated that output in 2012/13 is expected to come in higher than initial official estimates of between 48.0mn and 52.0mn bags, which confirms our view for a year of strong production despite floods affecting the country. We therefore are maintaining our forecast for coffee production to come in at 55.0mn bags in 2012/13. The Brazilian state of Minas Gerais has declared a state of emergency in 53 of its 853 cities because of flooding, according to official sources. However, coffee crops have been less affected by the flooding, and rainfalls have helped to boost coffee tree flowering.
Business Monitor International's Brazil Agribusiness service provides proprietary medium term price forecasts for key commodities, including corn, wheat, rice, sugar, cocoa, coffee, soy and milk; in addition to newly-researched competitive intelligence on leading agribusiness producers, traders and suppliers; in-depth analysis of latest industry developments; and essential industry context on Brazil's agribusiness service.
BMI Industry View
SWOT Analysis
Brazil Agricultural SWOT
Brazil Political SWOT
Brazil Economic SWOT
Brazil Business Environment SWOT
Supply Demand Analysis
Brazil Livestock Outlook
Table: Brazil Poultry Production & Consumption,2011-2016
Table: Brazil Pork Production & Consumption,2011-2016
Table: Brazil Beef & Veal Production & Consumption,2011-2016
Brazil Poultry Production & Consumption,2008-2012
Brazil Pork Production & Consumption,2008-2012
Brazil Beef & Veal Production & Consumption,2008-2012
Brazil Cocoa Outlook
Table: Brazil Cocoa Production & Consumption,2011-2016
Table: Brazil Cocoa Production & Consumption,2008-2012
Brazil Coffee Outlook
Table: Brazil Coffee Production & Consumption,2011-2016
Table: Brazil Coffee Production & Consumption,2008-2012
Brazil Sugar Outlook
Table: Brazil Sugar Production & Consumption,2011-2016
Table: Brazil Sugar Production & Consumption,2008-2012
Brazil Cotton Outlook
Table: Brazil Cotton Production & Consumption,2012-2016
Table: Brazil Cotton Production & Consumption,2008-2012
Brazil Grains Outlook
Table: Brazil Wheat Production & Consumption ,2011-2016
Table: Brazil Corn Production & Consumption,2011-2016
Table:Brazil Barley Production & Consumption,2011-2016
Table: Brazil Wheat Production & Consumption,2008-2012
Table: Brazil Corn Production & Consumption,2008-2012
Table: Brazil Barley Production & Consumption,2008-2012
Brazil Soybean Outlook
Table: Brazil Soybean Production & Consumption
Table: Brazil Soybean Production & Consumption,2008-2012
Brazil Dairy Outlook
Table: Brazil Milk Production & Consumption,2011-2016
Table: Brazil Butter Production & Consumption,2011-2016
Table: Brazil Cheese Production & Consumption,2011-2016
Table: Brazil Whole Milk Powder Production & Consumption,2011-2016
Table: Brazil Milk Production & Consumption,2008-2012
Table: BraziL Butter Production & Consumption,2008-2012
Table: Brazil Cheese Production & Consumption,2008-2012
Table: Brazil Whole Milk Powder Production & Consumption,2008-2012
Commodity Price Analysis
Monthly Grains Update
Corn: Topped Out
Rice: Ample Supply
Soybean: Supply Risks
Wheat: Regaining Poise
Monthly Softs Update
Cocoa
Coffee
Palm Oil
Sugar
Economic Analysis
Table: Brazil - GDP Contribution To Growth
Industry Forecast – Food
Consumer Outlook
Food
Total Food Consumption
Table: Brazil Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts,2009-2016
Prepared Food, Processed Meat and Fish
Table: Canned Food Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts,2009-2016
Table: Pasta,2009-2016
Table :Meat,2009-2016
Table :Fish,2009-2016
Table: Jams And Jellies,2009-2016
Frozen Fruit and Vegetables
Table: Frozen Fruit And Vegetables,2009-2016
Dairy
Table: Dairy,2009-2016
Confectionery
Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts,2009-2016
Table :Snack Foods,2009-2016
Mass Grocery Retail
Table: Brazil Mass Grocery Retail - Value Sales by Format - Historical Data & Forecasts
Table: Sales Breakdown By Retail Format, 2009 And 2020 (%)
Trade
Table: Food & Drink Trade Balance - Historical Data & Forecasts
Global Food & Drink View
Table: Core Views
Global Company Strategy
São Martinho SA
JBS SA
Table: Financial Data (Usd)
Regional Agribusiness Strategy
Brazil To Offer Opportunities In Livestock & Sugar
Table: Company Financials
Country Snapshot: Brazil Demographic Data
Section 1: Population
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030
Section 2: Education And Healthcare
Table: Education, 2000-2003
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030
Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power
Table: Employment Indicators, 1999-2004
Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$)
Table: Average Annual Wages, 1996-2002
BMI Forecast Modelling
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
- São Martinho SA
- JBS SA
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