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Country Forecast Belgium Product Image

Country Forecast Belgium

  • ID: 2138631
  • November 2014
  • Region: Belgium
  • 51 Pages
  • The Economist Intelligence Unit

Background: Belgium has been an independent kingdom since 1830. It was a founding member of NATO in 1949 and of the present EU. Belgium hosts the headquarters of NATO and the European Commission and Council, and the European Parliament has its second seat there. Belgium is made up of two major language groups: the Flemish, who speak Dutch; and the francophones, who are dominant in Wallonia and Brussels; there is also a small German-speaking minority.

Political structure: Belgium is a constitutional monarchy and a federal state, which is divided into three regions, Flanders, Wallonia and Brussels-Capital; and for education and culture into three "communities" of the Dutch, French and German language groups. The regions and communities have their own parliaments and executives, and power is increasingly being devolved to them. Regional elections take place every five years, with the next due in May 2019. At the federal level, the Senate (the upper house of parliament) and the Chamber of Representatives (the lower house) have five-year terms, coinciding with the regional parliaments. Elections to the Chamber (150 members) are by proportional representation. The last general election READ MORE >

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Country Forecast Belgium

Belgium--highlights: Political outlook

Belgium--highlights: Demographic outlook

Belgium--highlights: Business environment outlook

Belgium--highlights: Economic outlook

Belgium--highlights: Market opportunities

Belgium--highlights: Long-term outlook

Fact sheet

Political outlook: Political forces at a glance

Political outlook: Political stability
Government make-up could pose risks

Political outlook: Political and institutional effectiveness

Political outlook: Election watch

Political outlook: Key players to watch
King Philippe
Charles Michel
Bart De Wever
Elio Di Rupo

Political outlook: International relations

Demographic assumptions
Net immigration will continue to drive population growth
Ageing population will impose costs

Business environment outlook: Business environment rankings
Labour market characteristics and high taxes constrain productivity growth

Business environment outlook: Belgium's business environment at a glance
Policy towards private enterprise and competition
Policy towards foreign investment
Foreign trade and exchange controls
Taxes
Financing
The labour market
Infrastructure

Business environment outlook: Macroeconomic environment
Deflation or "lowflation" would bring debt reduction risks

Business environment outlook: Policy towards private enterprise and competi

Business environment outlook: Policy towards foreign investment
Belgium will remain one of the most open countries to FDI

Business environment outlook: Foreign trade and exchange controls
Bilateral and regional trade deals will outpace global trade talks
The EU's trade sanctions against Russia will contribute to euro zone weakness

Business environment outlook: Taxes
The tax wedge on labour is the highest in the OECD
Reforms aim to reduce the labour tax burden and boost indirect tax revenue

Business environment outlook: Financing
Post-crisis restructuring has separated banking and insurance activities
Restructuring has reduced banking sector risks, but profitability is weak

Business environment outlook: The labour market
Low employment and a high labour tax burden hinder competitiveness
Labour market reforms are provoking strong trade union opposition

Business environment outlook: Infrastructure
Belgium will continue to have well-developed infrastructure
Nuclear phase-out poses electricity supply risks

Economic forecast: Policy trends

Economic forecast: Fiscal policy

Economic forecast: Monetary policy

Economic forecast: International assumptions

Economic forecast: Economic growth

Economic forecast: Sectoral trends
The automotive sector will suffer from the weakness of domestic demand

Economic forecast: Inflation

Economic forecast: Exchange rates

Economic forecast: External sector

Economic forecast: Foreign direct investment in Belgium
Stocks and flows
Origin and distribution
Determinants
Impact
Potential

Market opportunities: Market outlook
Belgium benefits from its geographical position, but growth will remain slow

Market opportunities: Consumer expenditure
E-commerce should expand strongly

Market opportunities: Social indicators and living standards

Long-term outlook: The long-term outlook
Long-term GDP growth will depend on productivity improvements

Long-term outlook: Methodology for long-term forecasts
Growth projections
Definitions of variables
The independent variables include:
Summary of findings
Productivity growth

Data summary: Global outlook

Data summary: Gross domestic product, current market prices

Data summary: Gross domestic product, at constant prices

Data summary: Gross domestic product by sector of origin

Data summary: Growth and productivity

Data summary: Economic structure, income and market size

Data summary: Fiscal indicators

Data summary: Monetary indicators

Data summary: Employment, wages and prices

Data summary: Current account and terms of trade

Data summary: Foreign direct investment

Data sources and definitions
Global data
Domestic data
Abbreviations

Guide to the business rankings model
Outline of the model
Calculating the rankings
Measurement and grading issues

Indicator scores in the business rankings model

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Note: Product cover images may vary from those shown

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