Country Forecast India

  • ID: 2138634
  • October 2015
  • Region: India
  • 50 Pages
  • The Economist Intelligence Unit
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Background: India gained independence in 1947 after two centuries of British colonial rule. Partition at the same time created the state of Pakistan, with which India has fought three wars, two over the disputed territory of Kashmir. India is the second-most populous country in the world, with more than 1.2bn people in 2014. Its economy is the tenth largest in the world when measured in nominal US dollars, but is the third largest when measured at purchasing power parity exchange rates. The large and inefficient public sector coexists with a sizeable and diversified private sector.

Political structure: India has been a democracy since independence. The growing importance of regional parties has made coalition government the norm at federal level for three decades. In 2014 the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) bucked this trend by winning a clear majority at the general election. Democratic procedures are generally respected. The prime minister is the leader of the government, requiring the support of a majority in parliament. The president is the head of state and, although limited in executive power, can influence the formation of governments at both state and national levels when READ MORE >

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Country Forecast India

India--highlights: Political outlook

India--highlights: Demographic outlook

India--highlights: Business environment outlook

India--highlights: Economic outlook

India--highlights: Market opportunities

India--highlights: Long-term outlook

Fact sheet

Political outlook: Political forces at a glance

Political outlook: Political stability
State elections will become increasingly important drivers of change

Political outlook: Political and institutional effectiveness
A state-level emphasis on reform will lead to policy divergence
The resolution of legal disputes will continue to take years

Political outlook: Election watch

Political outlook: Key players to watch
Narendra Modi
Arvind Subramanian
Rahul Gandhi

Political outlook: International relations

Demographic assumptions
India will surpass China as world's most populous nation in the mid-2020s
A continued gender imbalance will threaten social stability

Business environment outlook: Business environment rankings
The business environment will continue to be challenging

Business environment outlook: India's business environment at a glance
Policy towards private enterprise and competition
Policy towards foreign investment
Foreign trade and exchange controls
The labour market

Business environment outlook: Macroeconomic environment
Deficits will remain elevated and narrow only modestly

Business environment outlook: Policy towards private enterprise and competi
Land reform may be delayed indefinitely

Business environment outlook: Policy towards foreign investment
The government will protect the interests of small shop owners

Business environment outlook: Foreign trade and exchange controls
Regulatory restrictions on capital mobility will largely remain in place

Business environment outlook: Taxes
The corporate income tax rate on domestic companies will be cut

Business environment outlook: Financing
The number of private banks will increase in 2015-19

Business environment outlook: The labour market
India's restrictive labour laws will be subject to reform

Business environment outlook: Infrastructure
Improved infrastructure will reduce logistics costs for companies
Railway connectivity will improve in 2015-19

Economic forecast: Policy trends

Economic forecast: Fiscal policy

Economic forecast: Monetary policy

Economic forecast: International assumptions

Economic forecast: Economic growth

Economic forecast: Sectoral trends

Economic forecast: Inflation

Economic forecast: Exchange rates

Economic forecast: External sector

Economic forecast: Foreign direct investment in India
Stocks and flows
Origin and distribution

Market opportunities: Market outlook
Increasingly sophisticated consumers will determine the success of brands

Market opportunities: Consumer expenditure
Geography will increasingly determine consumer purchasing power

Market opportunities: Social indicators and living standards

Long-term outlook: The long-term outlook

Long-term outlook: Methodology for long-term forecasts
Growth projections
Definitions of variables
The independent variables include:
Summary of findings
Productivity growth

Data summary: Global outlook

Data summary: Gross domestic product, current market prices

Data summary: Gross domestic product, at constant prices

Data summary: Gross domestic product by sector of origin

Data summary: Growth and productivity

Data summary: Economic structure, income and market size

Data summary: Fiscal indicators

Data summary: Monetary indicators

Data summary: Employment, wages and prices

Data summary: Current account and terms of trade

Data summary: Foreign direct investment

Data summary: External debt

Data sources and definitions
Global data
Domestic data

Guide to the business rankings model
Outline of the model
Calculating the rankings
Measurement and grading issues

Indicator scores in the business rankings model

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