Country Forecast Angola
The Economist Intelligence Unit, August 2012, Pages: 48
The president, José Eduardo dos Santos, and his ruling party, Movimento Popular de Libertação de Angola (MPLA), have fully consolidated their hegemony over the Angolan political system. Although there is continuing speculation that Mr dos Santos may decide to stand down after the legislative election on August 31st, the president continues to emphasise the importance of policy continuity. This suggests that, even if he did decide to bow out, he would seek to exercise influence from behind the scenes. The government has not renewed its stand-by arrangement with the IMF, which expired at the end of March, but will continue to receive technical support from the Fund. Rising oil output will boost real GDP growth to 8% in 2012, before it moderates to around 6.2% in 2013-16. Average inflation will just remain in double digits in 2012. However, assuming that structural reforms start to address underlying distortions, the Economist Intelligence Unit expects inflation to moderate to an average of 8.2% in 2013-16.
Official campaigning for the August 31st election started on August 1st, although the nine parties and coalitions running have been seeking votes for some time. The ruling MPLA has issued a five-year governance programme rather than a campaign manifesto, underscoring its confidence that it will win the poll.
The IMF has warned of structural vulnerabilities that threaten the stability of the financial sector, and has recommended increased supervisory capacity and the formation of a stabilisation fund. Progress is likely to be slow, however.
Country Forecast Angola
Angola at a glance: 2012-16
OVERVIEW
Key changes from last month
Political outlook
Economic policy outlook
Economic forecast
Angola--highlights: Political outlook
Angola--highlights: Demographic outlook
Angola--highlights: Business environment outlook
Angola--highlights: Economic outlook
Angola--highlights: Market opportunities
Angola--highlights: Long-term outlook
Fact sheet
Political outlook: Political forces at a glance
Political outlook: Political stability
Political outlook: Political and institutional effectiveness
The decentralisation programme could improve governance at a local level
Political outlook: Election watch
Political outlook: Key players to watch
José Eduardo dos Santos
Manuel Vicente
Carlos Feijó
Abel Chivukuvuku
Political outlook: International relations
Demographic assumptions
The young population will continue to grow rapidly
Health statistics are improving, but only slowly
HIV/AIDS
Business environment outlook: Business environment rankings
Strong macroeconomic prospects, but a poor policy environment
Business environment outlook: Angola's business environment at a glance
Policy towards private enterprise and competition
Policy towards foreign investment
Foreign trade and exchange controls
Taxes
Financing
The labour market
Infrastructure
Business environment outlook: Macroeconomic environment
Business environment outlook: Policy towards private enterprise and competi
The lack of competitiveness is likely to undermine the business climate
Business environment outlook: Policy towards foreign investment
Foreign investment will remain focused on the oil sector
Business environment outlook: Foreign trade and exchange controls
Oil will continue to dominate Angola's exports
Business environment outlook: Taxes
Tax breaks for foreign firms will continue
Business environment outlook: Financing
The domestic lending environment is steadily improving
Business environment outlook: The labour market
Obtaining visas and work permits will remain a lengthy and uncertain process
Business environment outlook: Infrastructure
Huge improvements can be expected in the next five years
Economic forecast: Policy trends
Economic forecast: Fiscal policy
Economic forecast: Monetary policy
Economic forecast: International assumptions
Economic forecast: Economic growth
Economic forecast: Sectoral trends
Oil production is set to expand once more
Onshore exploration has so far proved disappointing
Sonangol is continuing to expand its international interests
The government is encouraging diversification of the sector
Commercial exploitation of gas is under way
Downstream developments are modest
Membership of OPEC will not constrain near-term output growth
Economic forecast: Inflation
Economic forecast: Exchange rates
Economic forecast: External sector
Economic forecast: Foreign direct investment in Angola
Stocks and flows
Origin and distribution
Determinants
Impact
Potential
Market opportunities: Market outlook
Luanda dominates commercial activity
The retail network is set to expand dramatically
Long-term outlook: The long-term outlook
Oil will continue to dominate economic growth
A young, rapidly growing population, but poorly educated
Angola's oil boom will moderate
Progress with reform will be limited
Strong growth is expected to continue, but most Angolans will remain poor
Long-term outlook: Methodology for long-term forecasts
Growth projections
Definitions of variables
The independent variables include:
Summary of findings
Productivity growth
Data summary: Global outlook
Data summary: Gross domestic product, current market prices
Data summary: Gross domestic product, at constant prices
Data summary: Gross domestic product by sector of origin
Data summary: Growth and productivity
Data summary: Economic structure, income and market size
Data summary: Fiscal indicators
Data summary: Monetary indicators
Data summary: Employment, wages and prices
Data summary: Current account and terms of trade
Data summary: Foreign direct investment
Data summary: External debt
Data sources and definitions
Global data
Domestic data
Abbreviations
Guide to the business rankings model
Outline of the model
Calculating the rankings
Measurement and grading issues
Indicator scores in the business rankings model
Customers who bought this item also bought
All rights reserved. © Copyright 2013 Research and Markets WWW5
Terms and Conditions Privacy Policy Publishers Employment Opportunities Site Map Link to us Webmaster Affiliate Network
