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Country Forecast Tunisia Product Image

Country Forecast Tunisia

  • ID: 2138641
  • May 2013
  • Region: Tunisia
  • 49 Pages
  • The Economist Intelligence Unit

The new and more broadly based transitional cabinet will move faster than its predecessor to finalise the new constitution and organise presidential and legislative elections. The government that emerges from the next elections is likely to be another coalition. The downside of this is that establishing the clear policy lines wanted by business will be more difficult given differing ideologies. The government is expected to pursue an expansionary fiscal policy in 2013­14. The budget deficit will average 4% of GDP in 2013-17, but will shrink as the forecast period progresses. Real GDP growth will remain relatively weak in 2013-14 owing to worsening domestic unrest and a deteriorating trade profile. Growth will be stronger from 2015 onwards, averaging close to 5% in 2015-17. Inflation will subside during 2013-15, aided by an easing in global commodity prices, but upward price pressures stemming from higher oil prices are likely to reverse this decline in 2016-17. The Economist Intelligence Unit expects the current account to remain in deficit in 2013-17 as a persistent trade deficit is only partly offset by an improving non-merchandise position in the latter half of the forecast period.

The leading parties have begun what they are calling a "national dialogue" to speed up agreement on the key issues facing Tunisia. The rationale is that a relatively small gathering will be able to reach a more rapid consensus.

The IMF, the World Bank and the EU say that they expect faster reform in return for financial support. This will exacerbate the fears of left-of-centre politicians, opposed to many market-led reforms.

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Country Forecast Tunisia

Tunisia at a glance: 2013-17
Key changes from last month
Political outlook
Economic policy outlook
Economic forecast

Tunisia--highlights: Political outlook

Tunisia--highlights: Demographic outlook

Tunisia--highlights: Business environment outlook

Tunisia--highlights: Economic outlook

Tunisia--highlights: Market opportunities

Tunisia--highlights: Long-term outlook

Fact sheet

Political outlook: Political forces at a glance

Political outlook: Political stability

Political outlook: Political and institutional effectiveness
Corruption is still widely prevalent

Political outlook: Election watch

Political outlook: Key players to watch
Rachid Ghannouchi
Ali Larayedh
Hamadi Jebali
Moncef Marzouki
Houcine Abassi
Bèji Caid Essebsi

Political outlook: International relations

Demographic assumptions
Creating enough jobs will be difficult
The population will become more urbanised
Social indicators will improve over the forecast period

Business environment outlook: Business environment rankings
A difficult political backdrop will make rapid improvement unlikely

Business environment outlook: Tunisia's business environment at a glance
Policy towards private enterprise and competition
Policy towards foreign investment
Foreign trade and exchange controls
The labour market

Business environment outlook: Macroeconomic environment
The government will move cautiously in implementing structural reform

Business environment outlook: Policy towards private enterprise and competi
Local and foreign investment will be encouraged by a new investment law

Business environment outlook: Policy towards foreign investment
Boosting foreign investment will remain a key policy goal
The limits on foreign ownership will not be lifted in the short term

Business environment outlook: Foreign trade and exchange controls
"Advanced partner" status with EU will yield some benefits, but also risks
Full convertibility of the dinar is unlikely before 2017

Business environment outlook: Taxes
The government will push for a crackdown on tax evasion

Business environment outlook: Financing
The financial system will strengthen but reform will be gradual

Business environment outlook: The labour market
There will be significant opposition to reform of the labour law

Business environment outlook: Infrastructure
Infrastructure priorities will include development of interior regions
Telecoms services will continue to improve
Tunisia will make strides in renewable energy

Economic forecast: Policy trends

Economic forecast: Fiscal policy

Economic forecast: Monetary policy

Economic forecast: International assumptions

Economic forecast: Economic growth

Economic forecast: Sectoral trends
The depressed outlook for Europe will be bad for Tunisia
Food processing and the mechanical and electrical industry will prosper
There will be less variation in agricultural output

Economic forecast: Inflation

Economic forecast: Exchange rates

Economic forecast: External sector

Economic forecast: Foreign direct investment in Tunisia
Stocks and flows
Origin and distribution

Market opportunities: Market outlook
The government will aim to reduce inequality
The middle class will drive consumer spending
Prospects for Tunisia's retail sector will depend on the political situation

Long-term outlook: The long-term outlook
The population will grow slowly and get older
There will be opponents to reform which will slow progress
The economy will grow moderately over the long term

Long-term outlook: Methodology for long-term forecasts
Growth projections
Definitions of variables
Summary of findings
Productivity growth

Data summary: Global outlook

Data summary: Gross domestic product, current market prices

Data summary: Gross domestic product, at constant prices

Data summary: Gross domestic product by sector of origin

Data summary: Growth and productivity

Data summary: Economic structure, income and market size

Data summary: Fiscal indicators

Data summary: Monetary indicators

Data summary: Employment, wages and prices

Data summary: Current account and terms of trade

Data summary: Foreign direct investment

Data summary: External debt

Data sources and definitions
Global data
Domestic data

Guide to the business rankings model
Outline of the model
Calculating the rankings
Measurement and grading issues

Indicator scores in the business rankings model

Note: Product cover images may vary from those shown
Note: Product cover images may vary from those shown


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