Country Forecast Mexico

  • ID: 2138647
  • September 2015
  • Region: Mexico
  • 48 Pages
  • The Economist Intelligence Unit
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Background: Between 1929 and 2000, Mexico was governed by the Partido Revolucionario Institucional (PRI), a party that has shifted from its nationalist and interventionist origins towards free-market policies and economic liberalisation. The presidential victory in 2000 of the centre-right Partido Acción Nacional marked a transition to democratic pluralism, but political effectiveness was hindered by a divided legislature and slow progress on structural reforms. Sluggish growth and soaring violent crime contributed to the PRI returning to power under Enrique Peña Nieto in December 2012.

Political structure: The political system is presidential, bicameral and federal (31 states plus a federal district covering the capital, Mexico City). Presidential terms are six years, without possibility of re-election. Under the transition to democratic pluralism, the centre of political power has shifted away from the executive towards the legislature and local governments. A recent political reform lifted a ban on re-election for legislators and mayors, allowed independent candidates, and created a single electoral institute with greater oversight over state and local READ MORE >

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Country Forecast Mexico

Mexico--highlights: Political outlook

Mexico--highlights: Demographic outlook

Mexico--highlights: Business environment outlook

Mexico--highlights: Economic outlook

Mexico--highlights: Market opportunities

Mexico--highlights: Long-term outlook

Fact sheet

Political outlook: Political forces at a glance

Political outlook: Political stability

Political outlook: Political and institutional effectiveness

Political outlook: Election watch

Political outlook: Key players to watch
Enrique Peña Nieto
Luis Videgaray Caso
Andrés Manuel López Obrador
Jaime Rodríguez
Manlio Fabio Beltrones

Political outlook: International relations

Demographic assumptions
Mexico will need to capitalise on its demographic dividend
Conditional cash transfers have not made much dent on the poverty rate
Migration to the US is still high, but has fallen significantly since last decade

Business environment outlook: Business environment rankings
Pace of structural change could have positive effect on business environment

Business environment outlook: Mexico's business environment at a glance
Policy towards private enterprise and competition
Policy towards foreign investment
Foreign trade and exchange controls
The labour market

Business environment outlook: Macroeconomic environment
Interest groups could undermine the success of reforms

Business environment outlook: Policy towards private enterprise and competi
Structural reforms have created many new regulators

Business environment outlook: Policy towards foreign investment

Business environment outlook: Foreign trade and exchange controls

Business environment outlook: Taxes
Fiscal reform has raised tax revenue, but proven controversial

Business environment outlook: Financing
Scope for expanding the corporate debt market

Business environment outlook: The labour market

Business environment outlook: Infrastructure

Economic forecast: Policy trends

Economic forecast: Fiscal policy

Economic forecast: Monetary policy

Economic forecast: International assumptions

Economic forecast: Economic growth

Economic forecast: Sectoral trends
Decline in global oil prices will have a negative impact on the energy sector

Economic forecast: Inflation

Economic forecast: Exchange rates

Economic forecast: External sector

Economic forecast: Foreign direct investment in Mexico
Stocks and flows
Origin and distribution

Market opportunities: Market outlook
Large consumer market offset by high levels of poverty
Proximity to the US market is one of the country's key assets

Market opportunities: Consumer expenditure
There is scope for expansion of consumer credit

Market opportunities: Social indicators and living standards

Long-term outlook: The long-term outlook

Long-term outlook: Methodology for long-term forecasts
Growth projections
Definitions of variables
The independent variables include:
Summary of findings
Productivity growth

Data summary: Global outlook

Data summary: Gross domestic product, current market prices

Data summary: Gross domestic product, at constant prices

Data summary: Gross domestic product by sector of origin

Data summary: Growth and productivity

Data summary: Economic structure, income and market size

Data summary: Fiscal indicators

Data summary: Monetary indicators

Data summary: Employment, wages and prices

Data summary: Current account and terms of trade

Data summary: Foreign direct investment

Data summary: External debt

Data sources and definitions
Global data
Domestic data

Guide to the business rankings model
Outline of the model
Calculating the rankings
Measurement and grading issues

Indicator scores in the business rankings model

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