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Country Forecast Norway Product Image

Country Forecast Norway

  • Published: September 2013
  • Region: Norway
  • 48 Pages
  • The Economist Intelligence Unit

The "red-green" coalition of the Labour Party, the Socialist Left Party (SV) and the Centre Party, in power since 2005, lost the general election on September 9th 2013. Four centre-right parties-the Conservatives, Progress Party, Christian Democrats and Liberals-have started coalition-formation talks. The Economist Intelligence Unit expects a centre-right coalition led by the Conservatives to be formed. We expect political stability to be maintained, as there is a broad centrist policy consensus among the main parties. Real GDP growth averaged 3% in 2012, but slowed markedly to less than 2% in the second half of 2012. We expect full-year growth of 1.8% in 2013, and forecast that annual average growth will be 3.1% in 2014-17, as external demand strengthens from 2014. The budget and the current account will remain comfortably in surplus. Norges Bank (the central bank) is expected to maintain a low interest rate in 2013 to counter upward pressure on the krone, and to raise rates gradually in 2014-17.

The general election on September 9th saw the centre-left governing parties lose their majority in the Storting (parliament). The centre-right Conservatives made the largest gains. READ MORE >

Country Forecast Norway

Norway at a glance: 2013-17
OVERVIEW
Key changes from last month
Political outlook
Economic policy outlook
Economic forecast

Norway--highlights: Political outlook

Norway--highlights: Demographic outlook

Norway--highlights: Business environment outlook

Norway--highlights: Economic outlook

Norway--highlights: Market opportunities

Norway--highlights: Long-term outlook

Fact sheet

Political outlook: Political forces at a glance

Political outlook: Political stability

Political outlook: Political and institutional effectiveness
Piecemeal reform of local government is expected

Political outlook: Election watch

Political outlook: Key players to watch
Erna Solberg
Jens Stoltenberg
Siv Jensen
Jonas Gahr Store
Trond Giske
Trine Skei Grande

Political outlook: International relations

Demographic assumptions
Norway's demographics will remain relatively favourable until 2020
Uncertainty surrounding immigration from outside Europe will persist
The more remote regions will continue to undergo depopulation

Business environment outlook: Business environment rankings
Some defects mar a generally favourable environment

Business environment outlook: Norway's business environment at a glance
Policy towards private enterprise and competition
Policy towards foreign investment
Foreign trade and exchange controls
Taxes
Financing
The labour market
Infrastructure

Business environment outlook: Macroeconomic environment
Currency volatility is one downside to a favourable overall picture

Business environment outlook: Policy towards private enterprise and competi
New regulations are likely to be introduced to improve competition

Business environment outlook: Policy towards foreign investment
Foreign investment will continue to be restricted in some sectors
There will be opportunities for oil and gas investments

Business environment outlook: Foreign trade and exchange controls
Norway will remain committed to free trade in almost all sectors
Argument over EU postal directive carries wider risks to EEA agreement

Business environment outlook: Taxes
Some tax system improvements are expected

Business environment outlook: Financing
The financing environment will remain highly favourable
Mortgage lending presents a medium-term risk to the banking sector

Business environment outlook: The labour market
Strikes over early retirement and wage rises pose risks in some sectors

Business environment outlook: Infrastructure
The government will increase spending on road and rail projects

Economic forecast: Policy trends

Economic forecast: Fiscal policy

Economic forecast: Monetary policy

Economic forecast: International assumptions

Economic forecast: Economic growth

Economic forecast: Sectoral trends
Uncertainty will persist over manufacturers' competitiveness
Crude oil production will continue to decline during the forecast period

Economic forecast: Inflation

Economic forecast: Exchange rates

Economic forecast: External sector

Economic forecast: Foreign direct investment in Norway
Stocks and flows
Origin and distribution
Determinants
Impact
Potential

Market opportunities: Market outlook
Consumer spending growth will continue to strengthen

Market opportunities: Consumer expenditure
Sociological changes will have an impact on consumption patterns

Market opportunities: Social indicators and living standards

Long-term outlook: The long-term outlook
The ageing of the population will become an issue from 2020
Oil wealth may mask the need for structural reforms
Long-term growth will depend largely upon productivity rises

Long-term outlook: Methodology for long-term forecasts
Growth projections
Definitions of variables
The independent variables include:
Summary of findings
Productivity growth

Data summary: Global outlook

Data summary: Gross domestic product, current market prices

Data summary: Gross domestic product, at constant prices

Data summary: Gross domestic product by sector of origin

Data summary: Growth and productivity

Data summary: Economic structure, income and market size

Data summary: Fiscal indicators

Data summary: Monetary indicators

Data summary: Employment, wages and prices

Data summary: Current account and terms of trade

Data summary: Foreign direct investment

Data sources and definitions
Global data
Domestic data
Abbreviations

Guide to the business rankings model
Outline of the model
Calculating the rankings
Measurement and grading issues

Indicator scores in the business rankings model

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