Country Report Mali
- ID: 2138674
- September 2015
- Region: Mali
- 25 Pages
- The Economist Intelligence Unit
The government has put forward a draft 2016 budget that would increase expenditure by 6.3%.
In its budget proposal, the government expects real GDP growth to hit 6% in 2016, a projection attributed to improving security conditions. Yet such optimism may be premature. Jihadis are now staging sporadic terrorist attacks throughout the country, and the north continues to see clashes between autonomist ex-rebels and pro-government militias. Moreover, the economic drivers of growth are largely beyond the reach of government influence. World prices for gold and cotton, two key sectors of the economy, remain low and this will curb output growth. The agriculture sector is also dependent on adequate rains during the July-September rainy season. We project that growth in 2016 will come in at below 5%.
In addition to quicker economic growth, the government is counting on administrative reforms-including reducing tax exemptions and enforcing stricter compliance-to help fund the 2016 budget and total revenue is forecast to grow by 4%, to CFAfr1.82trn (US$3.1bn). After hitting a peak in 2015, partly owing to a debt-relief grant from France, aid inflows are projected to fall back in 2016.