Country Report Guinea-Bissau
The Economist Intelligence Unit, May 2013, Pages: 22
The IMF, following a visit to the country in the context of the annual Article IV consultations, has underlined the fragile state of the economy.
Divisions between the legislature and executive following last year's coup have persisted and continue to hinder effective policymaking. The political instability has also undermined the functioning of the civil service and caused the withdrawal of support from most traditional donors, leading total revenue to drop by 25% in 2012. More than four months into the fiscal year, Guinea-Bissau's government budget for 2013 has yet to be approved. The constrained fiscal position is set to continue in 2013, although backing from regional partners-mainly the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), and particularly Nigeria-will provide an element of relief for the authorities. This, together with a recovery in the cashew sector, should allow the country to return to growth in 2013, from a contraction of around 1.3% in 2012.
Following its visit to the country, the IMF stated that it expects the economy to expand by around 3.5% this year. Although The Economist Intelligence Unit also forecasts a recovery, owing to stronger performance in the cashew sector after a sharp drop in both volume and prices last year, we project growth to reach just above 2%, as several impediments still linger. Not least, the political situation will remain fragile. The authorities have vowed to hold elections in November, but the poll could yet be delayed; the election is crucial in order to break the current political deadlock.
Country Report Guinea-Bissau
Growth is set to recover slightly in 2013
Event
Analysis
Impact on the forecast
Customers who bought this item also bought
All rights reserved. © Copyright 2013 Research and Markets WWW6
Terms and Conditions Privacy Policy Publishers Employment Opportunities Site Map Link to us Webmaster Affiliate Network
