Country Risk Service Uganda
The Economist Intelligence Unit, March 2013, Pages: 24
The president, Yoweri Museveni, and his National Resistance Movement (NRM) will continue to dominate the political scene following a resounding victory in the February 2011 elections. There may be some limited outbreaks of civil unrest, but Mr Museveni has total control of the security forces, making wider political instability unlikely. Real GDP growth will be subdued in 2013 owing to a stagnation in public spending. It is forecast to accelerate to an average of 6.8% in 2014-16 as foreign investment and external demand rise, and 12.6% in 2017 as oil production starts.
A group of Acholi members of parliament (MPs) launched a campaign calling for northern Uganda to secede and form an independent state. The campaign aim is unrealistic, but it reflects the discontent felt in the region about its perceived marginalisation.
Andiru Nebanda has been elected MP for Butaleja. The NRM had lost seven of the previous nine by-elections held since the 2011 general election, and, despite the victory, divisions within the party will continue to fester.
Country Risk Service Uganda
Uganda at a glance: 2013-17
OVERVIEW
Key changes from last month
Political outlook
Economic policy outlook
Economic forecast
Risk assessment
Sovereign risk
Currency risk
Banking sector risk
Political risk
Economic structure risk
Sovereign risk
Current assessment
Positive factors
Negative factors
Outlook
Currency risk
Current assessment
Positive factors
Negative factors
Outlook
Foreign-exchange regime
Banking sector risk
Current assessment
Positive factors
Negative factors
Outlook
Generic risks
Political risk assessment
Economic structure risk assessment
Country risk
Overall country risk
Rating definitions
Sovereign risk
Currency risk
Banking sector risk
Political risk
Economic structure risk
Overall country risk
Central scenario for 2013-17: Political stability
Central scenario for 2013-17: Election watch
Central scenario for 2013-17: International relations
Central scenario for 2013-17: Policy trends
Central scenario for 2013-17: Fiscal policy
Central scenario for 2013-17: Monetary policy
Central scenario for 2013-17: Economic growth
Central scenario for 2013-17: Inflation
Central scenario for 2013-17: Exchange rates
Central scenario for 2013-17: External sector
Central scenario for 2013-17: External financing requirement
Central scenario for 2013-17: External debt
Key risk indicators
Ratings summary
Quarterly indicators
International assumptions summary
Economic structure
Public finances
Exchange rates, interest rates and prices
Financial sector
Current account
International liquidity
Foreign payment and liquidity indicators
External trade
External financing requirement
External debt stock
External debt service
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