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Country Risk Service Bulgaria Product Image

Country Risk Service Bulgaria

  • Published: June 2013
  • 25 Pages
  • The Economist Intelligence Unit

An early election on May 12th, precipitated by mass protests that led to the resignation of the Citizens for European Development of Bulgaria (CEDB) government in February, produced an inconclusive result. The most likely outcome is a coalition bringing together the Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP) and the Movement for Rights and Freedoms (MRF), representing mainly ethnic Turks. The government is likely to be less stable than its predecessor. The EU will demand more tangible results in the fight against corruption and organised crime. Real GDP has rebounded only modestly since 2008; we forecast that growth will remain sluggish, at 0.9% in 2013, before accelerating to an average of 3.1% per year in 2014-17. Average inflation slowed to 3% in 2012 from 4.2% in 2011. We forecast that inflation will dip to 2.5% in 2013, before accelerating to an average of 3.4% per year in 2014-17. We expect a gradual increase in the current-account deficit from 2014 onwards as growth picks up over the forecast period. Given the high level of external debt, together with the risk of fallout from the Cypriot and Greek crises, there is a possibility that Bulgaria will need help from the IMF and the EU.

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Country Risk Service Bulgaria

Bulgaria at a glance: 2013-17
OVERVIEW
Key changes from last month
Political outlook
Economic policy outlook
Economic forecast

Risk assessment
Sovereign risk
Currency risk
Banking sector risk
Political risk
Economic structure risk

Sovereign risk
Current assessment
Positive factors
Negative factors
Outlook

Currency risk
Current assessment
Positive factors
Negative factors
Outlook
Foreign-exchange regime

Banking sector risk
Current assessment
Positive factors
Negative factors
Outlook

Generic risks
Political risk assessment
Economic structure risk assessment

Country risk
Overall country risk

Rating definitions
Sovereign risk
Currency risk
Banking sector risk
Political risk
Economic structure risk
Overall country risk

Central scenario for 2013-17: Political stability

Central scenario for 2013-17: Election watch

Central scenario for 2013-17: International relations

Central scenario for 2013-17: Policy trends

Central scenario for 2013-17: Fiscal policy

Central scenario for 2013-17: Monetary policy

Central scenario for 2013-17: Economic growth

Central scenario for 2013-17: Inflation

Central scenario for 2013-17: Exchange rates

Central scenario for 2013-17: External sector

Central scenario for 2013-17: External financing requirement

Central scenario for 2013-17: External debt

Key risk indicators

Ratings summary

Quarterly indicators

International assumptions summary

Economic structure

Public finances

Exchange rates, interest rates and prices

Financial sector

Current account

International liquidity

Foreign payment and liquidity indicators

External trade

External financing requirement

External debt stock

External debt service

Format Properties
Electronic (PDF) The report will be emailed to you. The report is sent in PDF format. This is a single user license, allowing one specific user access to the product.
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