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Country Risk Service Ireland 1st Quarter

  • ID: 2138970
  • January 2015
  • Region: Ireland
  • 21 Pages
  • The Economist Intelligence Unit

A return to solid growth is assisting the process of fiscal consolidation. The debt burden has been eased by a restructuring of debt issued to bail out failed Irish banks in 2010, maturity reprofiling of EU bail-out loans and early repayment of IMF loans. The public debt/GDP ratio fell in 2014 and The Economist Intelligence Unit expects it to follow a declining trend over the medium term. This should maintain the government's access to market funding on fine terms.

The euro has depreciated sharply against the US dollar since May 2014, as the euro zone's economic outlook has worsened. We expect continued euro weakness in 2015 and a slow recovery thereafter. This reflects widening divergence between policy stances and growth rates vis-à-vis the US.

Banks' balance sheets are benefiting from the strengthening of the economy and rising house prices but are still suffering from an overhang of residential- mortgage arrears and the impairment of loans to small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). In late 2014 Ireland's two main banks, Bank of Ireland and Allied Irish Banks, passed the asset quality review and stress tests conducted by the European Central Bank (ECB), but a smaller bank, Permanent TSB, is required to make up a substantial capital shortfall.

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Country Risk Service Ireland 1st Quarter

Risk assessment
Sovereign risk
Currency risk
Banking sector risk
Political risk
Economic structure risk

Definitions
Sovereign risk
Currency risk
Banking sector risk
Political risk
Economic structure risk

Sovereign risk
Current assessment
Rating outlook

Central scenario for 2015-19: Political stability

Central scenario for 2015-19: Election watch

Central scenario for 2015-19: International relations

Central scenario for 2015-19: Policy trends

Central scenario for 2015-19: Fiscal policy

Central scenario for 2015-19: Monetary policy

Central scenario for 2015-19: Economic growth

Central scenario for 2015-19: Inflation

Central scenario for 2015-19: Exchange rates

Central scenario for 2015-19: External sector

Key risk indicators

Ratings summary

Quarterly indicators

International assumptions summary

Economic structure

Public finances

Exchange rates, interest rates and prices

Financial sector

Current account

Foreign payment and liquidity indicators

External trade

Note: Product cover images may vary from those shown
Note: Product cover images may vary from those shown

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