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Country Risk Service Ireland 1st Quarter

  • ID: 2138970
  • January 2016
  • Region: Ireland
  • 19 Pages
  • The Economist Intelligence Unit
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The rating is unchanged at BBB, and Ireland remains on the cusp of an upgrade following strong recent growth and fiscal performances. The primary balance has returned to surplus, and although public debt remains high, it has fallen sharply since 2013 and will dip below 100% of GDP this year. Funding costs are at exceptionally low levels, with ten-year bonds yielding an average of 1.1% in 2015.

The Economist Intelligence Unit expects the euro to depreciate slightly further against the US dollar in 2016, as monetary policy between the euro zone and the US diverge. We estimate the probability of a Greek exit from the zone at 60% by the end of the forecast period, creating significant event risk for the single currency.

Banks' balance sheets are benefiting from the economic recovery and rising house prices, but are still suffering from an overhang of residential mortgage arrears and the impairment of loans to small and medium-sized enterprises. The share of loans that are non-performing has fallen, but remains elevated at around 20%. Private-sector deleveraging has been proceeding at a rapid pace.

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Country Risk Service Ireland 1st Quarter

Risk assessment
Sovereign risk
Currency risk
Banking sector risk
Political risk
Economic structure risk

Definitions
Sovereign risk
Currency risk
Banking sector risk
Political risk
Economic structure risk
Overall country risk

Sovereign risk
Current assessment
Rating outlook

Central scenario for 2016-20: Political stability

Central scenario for 2016-20: Election watch

Central scenario for 2016-20: International relations

Central scenario for 2016-20: Policy trends

Central scenario for 2016-20: Fiscal policy

Central scenario for 2016-20: Monetary policy

Central scenario for 2016-20: Economic growth

Central scenario for 2016-20: Inflation

Central scenario for 2016-20: Exchange rates

Central scenario for 2016-20: External sector

Key risk indicators

Ratings summary

Quarterly indicators

International assumptions summary

Economic structure

Public finances

Exchange rates, interest rates and prices

Financial sector

Current account

Foreign payment and liquidity indicators

External trade

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